It looks to me like the January seasonal tendency for a decline that has developed in the last 5 to 7 years is taking place. I am shooting for approx end of Feb to establish long positions, for what should be a good up move. This date is a guess right now, just based on a loose projection indicator I have that is generally right, but not precise. It will be more important to watch what develops in the decline, to determine when and if a buy spot is setting up. It has been a very long time since we have had a 10% or more decline, one of the longest times in history. As a result, this year could have some big swings in both directions.
There are certain market internals that have to hold up properly during this decline, for me to be aggressive on the long side. If these do not hold up, I will not buy the dip. Primary among these internals, is the 30 yr bond rates need to resume their uptrend in price, downtrend in rates, that has been in place since July. I will be more than willing to go on the record in here at the time I initiate this position, if anyone is interested. Then I can either be hammered or congratulated as to the accuracy of it later on.
The tone in here seems to have gotten better since I have been out of here, so hopefully we have a constructive environment for exchange again. I did read through that nasty stuff regarding our leader Rich, and hope that has resulted in people being a little more kind to each other. There is no place for something like that in my opinion. He created this forum for everyone who is here, and he is a top notch human being.
