[quote=partypup]I presented a scenario (economic dislocation) that is much, much more likely than any of the outlandish scenarios you presented above.[/quote]
You’re forgetting the other part of your scenario where some disaster situation worsens the economic downturn. Is a global apocalyptic flu outbreak any more likely to happen than an earthquake or another Katrina? You must know something we don’t about this whole flu thing.[/quote]
I’m sure I don’t know anything about this pandemic that you don’t. But I think there are two (2) factors to keep in mind when debating the merits of my original statement: the potential for global impact and the likelihood of occurrence. You seem to be focusing only on likelihood without any regard to global impact.
Comparing a global pandemic to a hurricane or earthquake is an apples-to-oranges comparison. Certainly an earthquake or a hurricane is more likely to occur than a global pandemic because they occur EVERY year (and in the case of earthquakes, they occur every day – major quakes hitting perhaps every few years or less). However, an earthquake or a hurricane is a localized event, thereby limiting its global impact. Have you ever heard of an earthquake or hurricane going global?
By contrast, a global pandemic is not only (a) more likely to occur (we’ve experienced them several times in the past – from Bubonic plague to the Spanish flue of 1918), but it’s also (b) much more likely to affect the entire human population, and therefore the global economy, than an earthquake, hurricane or some other localized event. So in answer to your question, a global flu pandemic is much more likely to exacerbate a downturn in the global economy than another Katrina or another huge quake.
You also mentioned the possibility of the sun exploding. While this would be a mind-blowingly scary event with certain impact upon the global economy, I think you will be hard-pressed to find any credible scientific evidence that points to the likelihood of this event occurring in the next several billion years.
[quote=afx114][quote=partypup]And yes, your Messiah – despite all the trappings – is still a politician like all the other hacks who have preceded him.[/quote]
If you get to call Obama my Messiah, I get to call him your Anti Christ. It’s only fair.[/quote]
LOL. OK, fair enough. We’ll see which label fits better by the end of his term 😉
