Real Estate – thx for the link. Am checking it now.

PatientRenter – < patience & logic >. Thx for the reminder. I need to hear these things. Often!

Josh/Barnaby – I have followed many topics on this blog site & respect your opinion. But a couple of points you raise, not sure I concur. We’ve been here just over 2 yrs. The Sydney area is very locale specific e.g. you mention Mosman being crazy, NSW Housing put out a report in 2007 looking at North Sydney and as whole it grew 3% from 2001 to 2007, however Hunters Point (near Mosman) and in North Sydney grew a whopping 67% over same time period. So you seem right there.

I’m looking for data, but it’s hard to find. However, Manly has been flat since at least 2003 maybe a little down on the high end. That’s 6 years of CPI to catch up with 2003 highs. I’ve polled friends who own & live in the area and gotton some admittedly small samples sizes, but that’s the consensus. No swings since the high of 2003, just flat.

I honestly think the lending criteria is tougher here. Yes, fixed rates are unusual – most folks go with ARMS, but they are used to it and they remember the 80’s with double digit interest rates. Also banks hang on to the mortgages themselves and do verify. I’ve had 3 banks come to me to verify my employees salaries over the yrs. They want 2 yrs worth of payslips to verify and peel out any commission or bonus (they don’t count bonus/commission – base salary only.) Most folks put 20% down. No non-recourse loans.

How come you reckon Sydney trails USA on realestate by 1.5yrs? And/or that it’s a huge bubble here (in Sydney, Perth, Brisbane different story.)

I’d like to chase up that article you mention (ANZ CEO or something talking real estate) – can you give me something to go on?

I still can’t get away from the calculation that if I keep my 1mil AUD invested, it still just pays my rent after taxes. Same amount gets me apartment I’m happy in for 5-10+ yrs.

I suspect AU will weather the upcoming storm *relatively* well. Yes commodities are way down, but Au has a shitload of them, lock on iron ore, lots of uraneum, lots of other minerals, more cows/sheep/wheat than people and abundant gas & coal and at some point, the World will start building again. Banks down here didn’t engage in the shaningens to the same extent as US & EMEA. However, I still do see a very, very tough year or 3 and the unemployment train ain’t stopping. I’m just wondering if this will be enough to force the Manly area market down significantly.

I worry about inflation screwing me on my conservative investments, mostly term deposits in USD/EURO/AUD.

Manly is a great place. The sunglassed keen eye finds topless beauties on the beach every day, nice warm but not hot climate by the sea, good surf, clean & safe area, great wine (if you like big flavors) & food, sport, nice people, strong rule of capitalist law, efficient government & easy ferry shot to downtown Sydney.