The Fed will likely pause this time around. I have read that the fact they are considering a pause is quite telling. It is saying that the economy is already in some trouble and they don’t need to expedite it. Like a house of cards that is already falling down…they don’t need to blow on it because it will fall under its own weight.

My gut feeling is that the Fed needs to make another quarter point raise and see how the rest of the quarter plays out. I think they tend to err on the side of gradual change. Conversely, I have the attitude that if something is broke, it needs to be fixed. And long term inflation is a much bigger problem than short-term economic progress. Another quarter point hike will help to put our economy on a more steady path, one that is not in inflationary mode. Sometimes the worst tasting medicine is also the best for you.