That is if I sell today correct? Since all of my cost average index investment is long term (20, 30 years from today) I am hoping for an overall gain 🙂

My understanding is that the U.S. stock market historically averages 7-9% return (don’t remember if it is adjusted for inflation), which makes it the safest investment taking inflation as a risk. Besides, if there is sufficient systemic problems for a 15-20 year decline then I figure I’d got more problems to worry about then loosing my nest egg.

My squint eye view of market graphs tells me that the market doesn’t move very much most of the time, but have big jumps and dips. While we can say that the market is overvalued, it is hard tell when the correction comes. More importantly, if you may miss the rises, and this is assuming that you make the correct call on where to put your money instead of the stock market.

I just figured a low cost, index funds like Vanguard allows for best combo of low anxiety, low fee, low maintenance, high return for me. I’ts what Warrent Buffet recommends for most foundations, pension funds, and it is good enough for me.