Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.
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McCain will get these states, based on the trends that seems to be accelerating.
And I disagree with this map. MCain doesn’t need VA or CO in order to get to 273.
However, NV, NC, OH FL and PA are critical to a McCain win.
I believe NC, OH and FL are safe (by a small margin) for McCain.
The wild cards are NV and PA. There is no guarantee whatsoever that he will get these states.
Tomorrow will tell us a lot more about where (if anywhere) this trend is heading.
All I intended to point out in this post is that this election is not a slam dunk for Obama. If he wins, I suspect it will be by the narrow margin by which Bush has won the last 2 elections.
