I could see Oil going down to $50. I think there is already a speculative premium in the oil market. How big? I don’t have a guess. The current high price is causing more and more investment into locating, and extracting more and more oil. ( there is still a ton out there ) At the same time it is causing more people and industries to look for ways to conserve and be more efficient. The laws of supply and demand in my mind dictate that the pendulum will swing back.
Just my opinion of course. I own a lot of oil stocks and watch closely. I think it will eventually be over priced and correct.