Poway,
Corporate spending is booming. To put it in perspective, I just wrapped up an incredible Q1 that exceeded our quota to the effect we hit the 200% accelerator! I call on a Fortune 500 account (large OEM), selling specialized products for major telecommunications networks. There is a major network transformation underway for things like IPTV and mobility applications that is driving a big upcycle in telecom investment.

Any recession will be, IMHO, predicated by a weak consumer. Like I said, you have lots of people with high debt loads that lack stable 6-figure corporate jobs. Besides a professional income, I also have first-rate healthcare ($350/month for the family), a company car, stock options, and a PENSION! OC and SD just aren’t the place one finds these kinds of jobs, but rather the is the land of the small business owner, service professional (i.e. attorney) or RE industry tool. An engineer for my company living in SD probably makes $20-30K less than the guy working in San Jose, strictly due to the local “cost of labor”.

Everybody I know who lives in the Bay area makes >$200K. You’ll see ARMs, because even a guy making $200K has a tough time with a $1.5 million shack in Piedmont (premier East Bay family area). Chances are he’ll have plenty of qualified buyers there, however, compared to a guy making $80K trying to flip his $750K Irvine condo to a bunch of guys in similar economic boats.

Boston is unique in that most people are very well educated, and as such would never over-leverage themselves. My town is the kind of place where the guy down the street driving the 5 year old minivan is worth $20 million.

So in summary, any recession will be fueled by a lack of consumer spending. What will be interesting to see is whether business investment picks up the slack. And, oh, by the way, inflation? Double digit percentage raises were the norm at my Fortune 10 company this year. The skilled labor market, at least in high tech, is tighter than it has been since 1999 (though this can be attributed as well to 9/11 and the lack of visas available for the majority foreign-born US engineering and science grads). After all, how many of your friends have degrees in EE or CS? I’m the only one in my circle.