Hi, SDRealtor. I’m confused here. Could you please clarify a few things for me? You state that “pending sales” are running at 90% of the volume in the same month in 2005. Isn’t that less than a year ago, same month? And you also state that a month ago we were at 70% of the volume. 70% of what, the volume, pending sales, closed sales or some other measure the same time frame a year ago?

Also, 70% of 10 closed sales is more than 90% of 5 closed (apples to apples). But then those 10 closed sales might be less in dollar volume than those 5 closed sales. Can you talk absolute numbers as opposed to percentages because maybe the percentages are greater month over month but absolute volume (in number of homes) might be less as also may be the absolute dollar amounts.

Additionally, pending is not “closed” and in my opinion that’s where the true picture can be seen of where the real estate market is performing at any particular point in time — are houses selling or not?

I guess I am saying there are so many variables that determine exactly what a market is doing (absolute volume, month over month percentages, dollar volume, pennding sales, closed sales, homes vs. condos, etc.) that we need to be clear on exactly what it is we are talking about.

So, what is the most accurate measure of what a market is doing? I think that’s the question we need to ask and then we need to dilegently search for the answer by analyzing the reams of data available looking for the answer that gives us the most precise picture.

Lastly, I want to say that I value every opinion and piece of information that is posted on this website, regardless of the credentials of the writer. Yes, it always helps to consider the source but sometimes the most valuable data comes from the most unexpected and surprising sources.

I for one am a believer in simply getting out and talking to realtors and potential buyers at open houses and new housing tracts. Exit studies are a great source of information for me (kind of like asking people what they think of a restaurant or a movie). I get as many differenet perspectives as I feel I need and then after due consideration of all the data, I act (or don’t act) based on my own internal analysis.

My 15 year old son (a wonderful young man and a budding brain surgeon) has a quote over his desk and it says “Believe nothing, no matter where you read it or who has said it, not even if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense.” – Budda.

I thank Rich for this site and also all of those who are willing to participate in this dialogue, that in the end, benefits all of us, by increasing our awareness of the real estate market and more importantly, of our connection with each other and how valuable it is to simply communicate and share knowledge.