Username worked from Great Recession bubble, but older now.
Discuss buying behavior regarding appreciation & cash flow.
For non-cash buyers bottom of bubble wasn’t lowest payments.
The marketplace here is unlike many other places and has long been prone to upward spikes in prices in short periods of time. The movement of interest rates over the long term is difficult to predict. From my experience of living here three decades most of that in real estate business if you can buy a primary residence that fits your long-term needs anywhere close to rent versus buy parity it’s a good idea. Between appreciation, inflation and the convenience of not having to move more frequently than one wants it always seems to pay off.
The opportunity to refinance your mortgage below 3% was truly one of the greatest opportunities in our lifetime.
My 2011 SFH purchase had payments a bit above rent, partly because I only put down 5% and had to pay a higher rate and PMI, and partly because it was a teardown on a huge lot without great rental value.
About a year later I did a cash-in refi and my payment dropped from 2450 to 1950, and that knocked it well below rent value, and a huge positive after accounting for tax benefit and the principal part of the monthly payment.
My 2015 house and 2016 condo purchases were 20% down and slightly cash flow positive from the get-go.
Cash flow is an arbitrary measure though. Given the many benefits of homeownership, when payments are below rent that’s a sign RE is a screaming good buy, but many excellent entry points will be cash flow negative.
Real or perceived shifts in interest rates, economy, and institutional policy affect the short & long-term real estate market.
Days of inventory can be a trailing rather than leading factor of real estate market adjustments, since part of it is influenced by time delays such as default numbers.
Default numbers are very low nationally and probably even lower here. Demand has and is falling. I would’ve expected new supply to increase faster than it has. For real change here we need supply to pick up a good deal more. This is what we are waiting to see.
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