After the site upgrade this weekend users will be able to create their own polls in the forum.

Regarding that other dude’s post, I agree that inflation and future mortgage rates should be considered (I think that both are going to go up). All things equal, it would be great to lock in debt for 30 yrs at these absurdly low rates, which in my opinion come nowhere near to reimbursing the lender for their risk of purchasing power loss over that timeframe.

But everything else isn’t equal. Prices are still declining, and it doesn’t take too much decline to “even out” a jump in rates. And for reasons that have been discussed at length elsewhere on this site, it is better to owe less at a higher rate than to owe more at a lower rate (should you get a chance to refinance, or should you end up selling earlier than you expected, not to mention that in a higher inflation/rate environment you are paying down the real burden of the debt at a quicker pace).

So inflation/rates are something to consider, but I disagree with the premise that you should knowingly buy an overpriced home on the speculation that rates will rise enough to eventually even out the loss.

Finally, I just have to say that I find the idea that the market will suddenly take off without us even realizing it to be ridiculous. Real estate moves slowly, and it specifically tops out and bottoms out slowly (see the prior boom/bust cycles). We are coming off a record shattering 10-year boom and there is little reason to expect the bust to end quickly. We are watching the market closely and while there is little to suggest a turnaround at this time, we are looking for those signs.

So considering the undue attention we are giving to this market, and considering its slow moving nature, why would you suggest that it will take off without us realizing it? You speak of bringing evidence — what evidence do you have that people on this site are that oblivious? The evidence suggests that the people on this site have been ahead of the trends, not behind it as you seem to suggest.

Rich

update Forgot to ask this as well — where is your evidence that “fancy loans” peaked in 2005? Everything I’ve seen suggests that 2006 was a far worse year for underwriting than 2005 (remember to consider refinances as well as sales).