Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › When does the current Bull Run end?
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spdrun.
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August 17, 2015 at 11:17 AM #21647August 17, 2015 at 11:46 AM #788716
thejard
ParticipantAnd on that note I am trying to be better prepared to take advantage of it
August 17, 2015 at 8:24 PM #788719ltsddd
ParticipantI have been wrong the last 20 months by parking half of my $ on the side. I doubled down this month by going 100% cash. I think that pretty much guaranteed a crash won’t happen anytime soon based on my track record…..but if one is to happen between now and end of the year, I’ll be ready.
August 17, 2015 at 9:05 PM #788720XBoxBoy
ParticipantHere’s a post that takes the view we are nowhere near a slowdown.
August 17, 2015 at 9:19 PM #788721paramount
ParticipantA few weeks ago an ECRI headline was Eurozone and US currently resistant to recession.
July 15
Recoveries Remain Resilient
Growing ranks of the great and the good are worried that the global economy, like Humpty Dumpty, will have a great fall, never to be put together again. We understand their apprehension, given our concern since the summer of 2008 about collapsing trend growth.
But in terms of our current assessment of global recession risk, we aren’t ready to join in. This is because the major developed economies aren’t yet in windows of vulnerability that our leading indexes are designed to detect.
August 18, 2015 at 10:27 AM #788727poorgradstudent
ParticipantRich’s “Rising Tide” article convinced me to shift more of my retirement portfolio into Developed Market International funds (401k options are sadly fairly limited).
I don’t really like the value in US stocks right now, but some of the international markets seem to have at least some value.
August 19, 2015 at 11:01 PM #788757Jazzman
ParticipantLike a Victorian bather who prefers to remove her garments when no one is looking, this economic collapse in the making (if that is what it is) seems to have mastered the illusion of levitation. It stands to reason the phenomenal Chinese growth rate was unsustainable, and that it global influence would be felt. That commodities took a hit is probably no more than a over-due correction. Gold still seems way above its historic price. Oil suffers high production cost yet we bemoan its demise in the face of the effect it has had on global warming. Let’s rejoice that one. Nervousness in inter bank lending in interesting. Over-valued US stocks and QE has been an unfolding drama that share much in common with the Victorian bather. It will be interesting to see how Chinese stocks and housing bubble are master-minded by state capitalism, and how much understatement covers up the damage. How you quantify Greece and EM woes depends on what you see as the impending disaster. Will is be global, or asymmetrical? A crash, or a long drawn out battle of wills with central banks at the helm? Or is everything as ‘normal’ as it ever was, but we are just fixated with hanging onto what we don’t own and can’t have?
August 20, 2015 at 7:51 AM #788760ParticipantThe question I have been asking about the growth of the Chinese economy is not whether or not it’s sustainable, but rather if it’s been real or just a bunch of smoke-and-mirror stuff? If emperor Xi were to hand out a decree that China shall grow 30% next year, I have no doubt that it will hit that growth number with no problem.
August 20, 2015 at 7:26 PM #788774ParticipantToday.
August 20, 2015 at 9:21 PM #788776moneymaker
Participant[quote=Jazzman]Like a Victorian bather who prefers to remove her garments when no one is looking, this economic collapse in the making (if that is what it is) seems to have mastered the illusion of levitation. It stands to reason the phenomenal Chinese growth rate was unsustainable, and that it global influence would be felt. That commodities took a hit is probably no more than a over-due correction. Gold still seems way above its historic price. Oil suffers high production cost yet we bemoan its demise in the face of the effect it has had on global warming. Let’s rejoice that one. Nervousness in inter bank lending in interesting. Over-valued US stocks and QE has been an unfolding drama that share much in common with the Victorian bather. It will be interesting to see how Chinese stocks and housing bubble are master-minded by state capitalism, and how much understatement covers up the damage. How you quantify Greece and EM woes depends on what you see as the impending disaster. Will is be global, or asymmetrical? A crash, or a long drawn out battle of wills with central banks at the helm? Or is everything as ‘normal’ as it ever was, but we are just fixated with hanging onto what we don’t own and can’t have?[/quote]
Seems to me if there is global depression China will probably be ok as 1) they are used to being poor/frugal 2)the government will be able to point the finger at free markets and say “see why communism is better” 3)now that they make everything we use over here we need them more than they need us. So maybe the bull run ends today or maybe not yet but sure does seem like there will be a day of reckoning when we don’t make anything and just rub/scratch each others back over here.
August 21, 2015 at 12:09 PM #788789La Jolla Renter
Participant[quote=ltsdd]I have been wrong the last 20 months by parking half of my $ on the side. I doubled down this month by going 100% cash. I think that pretty much guaranteed a crash won’t happen anytime soon based on my track record…..but if one is to happen between now and end of the year, I’ll be ready.[/quote]
Maybe today???
I did the same a year ago.
August 21, 2015 at 12:11 PM #788790ParticipantDitto!
August 21, 2015 at 1:17 PM #788793The-Shoveler
ParticipantBeen out of the market for a while now myself.
But really I think they will just start QE5 or whatever QE we are up to now.
Unless North Korea goes boom, that is unpredictable so things could get really bad.
August 21, 2015 at 3:51 PM #788795ParticipantWell, along with the stock market it looks like mortgage rates have dipped again, although they’re still maybe an eighth above April lows.
I wonder if this is partially speculation that the Fed will push back a rate hike one more time?
August 21, 2015 at 6:48 PM #788799flyer
ParticipantHere’s one “professional” opinion on the developments today:
“People are using China as the main thing and as an excuse for selling,” said Keith Bliss, senior vice-president at Cuttone & Co in New York.”
“A lot of people know this is way overdone. They are just waiting and they are going to step back in next week.”
We’ve been out of the market for awhile, and our highly speculative film investments have actually proven to be more predictable than the market–go figure.
It will definitely be interesting to see how all of this plays out over time.
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