For me a drive on a free and clear highway from Carlsbad to Sorrento Valley takes 25 minutes, perhaps slightly exceeding the speed limit;). A train commute typically takes me 52 minutes in the morning door-to-door, if I get at the Poinsettia station couple minutes before departure. Reverse commute is longer due to train wait times.
An average rush hour drive for me takes anywhere from 35 to 40 min on average, with peak over an hour in cases of accidents or heavy conjestion. Afternoon rush hour can be a b*tch on the 5 between Carmel Valley and Lomas St Fe between 4:30 and 6:30pm. It is worse now due to the HOV lane construction. One thing thing you can do a quick check on traffic, if it looks bad take the train.
With gas prices nearly at $4 going into summer driving season, the train costs are looking better, even with the proposed increase. Of course it depends on the type of car your drive. With tax break (pre-tax purchase) and company sponsored discounts the costs swing strongly in the train commute favor for me. Another benefit is the slowing of depreciation on the car. I’m have done a financial spreadsheet analysis and the train commute works well for me. If I get a Prius and start commuting at 6am and working till 7pm then it would swing in the driving favor.
If there is any oil shock due to geopolitcal events (e.g. Nigerian Oil attacks, Iranian gun boat attack, terrorism on Saudi facilities, etc, and gas goes to $5 or $6, then I have a feeling that the train commute will become even more popular. I view the the ability to do a train commute also as a nice hedge against a big jump in gas prices.
The intangible benefits of taking the traing are enormous for me. I feel more relaxed when I get to work, sometimes I read the paper, surf the web, or clear out work email with my broadband wireless connection, or just gaze out the window at the ocean.
The train commute home is equally enjoyable, especially when I’m looking at the conjestion on the highway.