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CA renter.
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June 24, 2010 at 6:16 AM #17620June 24, 2010 at 6:50 AM #570407
sdrealtor
Participantyes that is a much better precursor. The enxt step would be to look at the individual houses that arent selling to see if they are overpriced relative to prior sales, whether they are priced under 800K and whether they sitting in the shadow of I-5. If they are fairly priced, at the prices where the action is and in decent locations it would bode well for declines. Of course that would be for that area and not necessarily the SW Carlsbad I beleive she prefers. Nonetheless, that is indeed how its done.
June 24, 2010 at 6:50 AM #571410Participantyes that is a much better precursor. The enxt step would be to look at the individual houses that arent selling to see if they are overpriced relative to prior sales, whether they are priced under 800K and whether they sitting in the shadow of I-5. If they are fairly priced, at the prices where the action is and in decent locations it would bode well for declines. Of course that would be for that area and not necessarily the SW Carlsbad I beleive she prefers. Nonetheless, that is indeed how its done.
June 24, 2010 at 6:50 AM #570501Participantyes that is a much better precursor. The enxt step would be to look at the individual houses that arent selling to see if they are overpriced relative to prior sales, whether they are priced under 800K and whether they sitting in the shadow of I-5. If they are fairly priced, at the prices where the action is and in decent locations it would bode well for declines. Of course that would be for that area and not necessarily the SW Carlsbad I beleive she prefers. Nonetheless, that is indeed how its done.
June 24, 2010 at 6:50 AM #571119Participantyes that is a much better precursor. The enxt step would be to look at the individual houses that arent selling to see if they are overpriced relative to prior sales, whether they are priced under 800K and whether they sitting in the shadow of I-5. If they are fairly priced, at the prices where the action is and in decent locations it would bode well for declines. Of course that would be for that area and not necessarily the SW Carlsbad I beleive she prefers. Nonetheless, that is indeed how its done.
June 24, 2010 at 6:50 AM #571012Participantyes that is a much better precursor. The enxt step would be to look at the individual houses that arent selling to see if they are overpriced relative to prior sales, whether they are priced under 800K and whether they sitting in the shadow of I-5. If they are fairly priced, at the prices where the action is and in decent locations it would bode well for declines. Of course that would be for that area and not necessarily the SW Carlsbad I beleive she prefers. Nonetheless, that is indeed how its done.
June 24, 2010 at 7:30 AM #571431SD Realtor
ParticipantCorrect, this was not to illustrate that CAR may want a home in this area but to show what you and I would consider more robust signs of downturn. This is what we saw in 06 in various areas that then spread out. I recall posting active pending ratios all the time, and I think at one point we were seeing some CRAZY numbers. In my analysis each morning of what is a viable flip for a trustee sale purchase, I not only look at the comps but also my outlook for reselling the home based on activity in that exact locale of the home. So what I am seeing are more and more checkerboard patterns of slowdowns indicated by very poor active/pending ratios. This is becoming more prevalent in various spots. I also think the selling price runup that many sellers think they can get away with has a larger effect then buyers numbers dropping off but what the heck do I know.
June 24, 2010 at 7:30 AM #570426ParticipantCorrect, this was not to illustrate that CAR may want a home in this area but to show what you and I would consider more robust signs of downturn. This is what we saw in 06 in various areas that then spread out. I recall posting active pending ratios all the time, and I think at one point we were seeing some CRAZY numbers. In my analysis each morning of what is a viable flip for a trustee sale purchase, I not only look at the comps but also my outlook for reselling the home based on activity in that exact locale of the home. So what I am seeing are more and more checkerboard patterns of slowdowns indicated by very poor active/pending ratios. This is becoming more prevalent in various spots. I also think the selling price runup that many sellers think they can get away with has a larger effect then buyers numbers dropping off but what the heck do I know.
June 24, 2010 at 7:30 AM #571140ParticipantCorrect, this was not to illustrate that CAR may want a home in this area but to show what you and I would consider more robust signs of downturn. This is what we saw in 06 in various areas that then spread out. I recall posting active pending ratios all the time, and I think at one point we were seeing some CRAZY numbers. In my analysis each morning of what is a viable flip for a trustee sale purchase, I not only look at the comps but also my outlook for reselling the home based on activity in that exact locale of the home. So what I am seeing are more and more checkerboard patterns of slowdowns indicated by very poor active/pending ratios. This is becoming more prevalent in various spots. I also think the selling price runup that many sellers think they can get away with has a larger effect then buyers numbers dropping off but what the heck do I know.
June 24, 2010 at 7:30 AM #570519ParticipantCorrect, this was not to illustrate that CAR may want a home in this area but to show what you and I would consider more robust signs of downturn. This is what we saw in 06 in various areas that then spread out. I recall posting active pending ratios all the time, and I think at one point we were seeing some CRAZY numbers. In my analysis each morning of what is a viable flip for a trustee sale purchase, I not only look at the comps but also my outlook for reselling the home based on activity in that exact locale of the home. So what I am seeing are more and more checkerboard patterns of slowdowns indicated by very poor active/pending ratios. This is becoming more prevalent in various spots. I also think the selling price runup that many sellers think they can get away with has a larger effect then buyers numbers dropping off but what the heck do I know.
June 24, 2010 at 7:30 AM #571032ParticipantCorrect, this was not to illustrate that CAR may want a home in this area but to show what you and I would consider more robust signs of downturn. This is what we saw in 06 in various areas that then spread out. I recall posting active pending ratios all the time, and I think at one point we were seeing some CRAZY numbers. In my analysis each morning of what is a viable flip for a trustee sale purchase, I not only look at the comps but also my outlook for reselling the home based on activity in that exact locale of the home. So what I am seeing are more and more checkerboard patterns of slowdowns indicated by very poor active/pending ratios. This is becoming more prevalent in various spots. I also think the selling price runup that many sellers think they can get away with has a larger effect then buyers numbers dropping off but what the heck do I know.
June 24, 2010 at 7:35 AM #570402pemeliza
Participant“However currently there are 19 homes active with 0 homes pending.”
I am seeing a similar situation in my area. In view of the recent move down in interest rates (the 10 year is 3.09 this morning), this dearth of activity is particularly telling. Is the market going to finally collapse despite near record low interest rates?
Edit: Interest rates are now at their lowest levels on record.
June 24, 2010 at 7:35 AM #571406Participant“However currently there are 19 homes active with 0 homes pending.”
I am seeing a similar situation in my area. In view of the recent move down in interest rates (the 10 year is 3.09 this morning), this dearth of activity is particularly telling. Is the market going to finally collapse despite near record low interest rates?
Edit: Interest rates are now at their lowest levels on record.
June 24, 2010 at 7:35 AM #571114Participant“However currently there are 19 homes active with 0 homes pending.”
I am seeing a similar situation in my area. In view of the recent move down in interest rates (the 10 year is 3.09 this morning), this dearth of activity is particularly telling. Is the market going to finally collapse despite near record low interest rates?
Edit: Interest rates are now at their lowest levels on record.
June 24, 2010 at 7:35 AM #571007Participant“However currently there are 19 homes active with 0 homes pending.”
I am seeing a similar situation in my area. In view of the recent move down in interest rates (the 10 year is 3.09 this morning), this dearth of activity is particularly telling. Is the market going to finally collapse despite near record low interest rates?
Edit: Interest rates are now at their lowest levels on record.
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