Banks fought so hard to remove mark-to-market accounting. It is hard to imagine that they would then turn around and release all the inventory simultaneously at the market price. Banks have to release the inventory slow enough so that it wouldn’t cause big enough loss that forces them to raise new capitals. That said, if the stock market keeps going up, they should have not much problem raising the much needed capital.

Banks fought so hard to remove mark-to-market accounting. It is hard to imagine that they would then turn around and release all the inventory simultaneously at the market price. Banks have to release the inventory slow enough so that it wouldn’t cause big enough loss that forces them to raise new capitals. That said, if the stock market keeps going up, they should have not much problem raising the much needed capital.

Banks fought so hard to remove mark-to-market accounting. It is hard to imagine that they would then turn around and release all the inventory simultaneously at the market price. Banks have to release the inventory slow enough so that it wouldn’t cause big enough loss that forces them to raise new capitals. That said, if the stock market keeps going up, they should have not much problem raising the much needed capital.

If I had a dollar for every time some “well-connected insider” down here said the banks were about to open the REO floodgates …

Trust no one! 🙂

If I had a dollar for every time some “well-connected insider” down here said the banks were about to open the REO floodgates …

Trust no one! 🙂

[quote=AK]If I had a dollar for every time some “well-connected insider” down here said the banks were about to open the REO floodgates …

Trust no one! :)[/quote]

I agree 100%. I’ve talked to agents who “just got off the phone with an Asset Manager” and you get the floodgates are opening. Hasn’t happened.

You can look at what trustee sales have happened (public records).. and then go look at if those properties have been listed (MLS). For the areas near population centers and active markets, You’ll be sorely disapointed if you are expecting any huge number of REOs sitting in the wings outside of the normal float (in eviction, trash out, waiting for pricing, etc) and a few stragglers that are tied up due to various reasons.

Shadow inventory consists of the large amount of homes sitting on the sidelines that CAN be taken back by the banks but aren’t. IMHO it does not generally consist of a large number of homes that have been taken back but aren’t being sold (outside of the lag time for eviction, trash out, BPO, etc).

This is a reason I follow trustee sales with these graphs, they are the leading indicators of “near” future inventory:
http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com/2009/07/mid-july-foreclosure-update-for-san.html

[quote=AK]If I had a dollar for every time some “well-connected insider” down here said the banks were about to open the REO floodgates …

Trust no one! :)[/quote]

I agree 100%. I’ve talked to agents who “just got off the phone with an Asset Manager” and you get the floodgates are opening. Hasn’t happened.

You can look at what trustee sales have happened (public records).. and then go look at if those properties have been listed (MLS). For the areas near population centers and active markets, You’ll be sorely disapointed if you are expecting any huge number of REOs sitting in the wings outside of the normal float (in eviction, trash out, waiting for pricing, etc) and a few stragglers that are tied up due to various reasons.

Shadow inventory consists of the large amount of homes sitting on the sidelines that CAN be taken back by the banks but aren’t. IMHO it does not generally consist of a large number of homes that have been taken back but aren’t being sold (outside of the lag time for eviction, trash out, BPO, etc).

This is a reason I follow trustee sales with these graphs, they are the leading indicators of “near” future inventory:
http://effectivedemand.blogspot.com/2009/07/mid-july-foreclosure-update-for-san.html