I have been following your house hunt with interest, as I live in one of the neighborhoods you ruled out because the houses were too small. I am pretty familiar with most of the areas you are considering, and I think your expected commute time might be a little too optimistic. Did you say you would be working in the Carmel Valley area? My office is near the El Camino Real exit off the 56 and I can tell you that on a bad afternoon, it can take 20 minutes to get from my office to the Carmel Valley Road exit off the 56 (3 or 4 miles?). Mornings can be worse. The 56 onramp at Carmel Valley Road is metered and it can back up for a long way. I have waited 15 minutes plus just to get ON the freeway, which of course is not moving at that point. Luckily, my schedule lets me commute at off-peak hours most of the time. If I had to do that drive every day, it would seriously put a damper on my mood.
What does your wife do? Will she stay home and manage kid activities? How old are your kids? The neighborhoods you are looking at have very different “mom” vibes and she may be much more comfortable in one vs. another. And some of the neighborhoods might be much more convenient for her day-to-day activities than others. I would be happy to offer my opinions if you want to give me a little more info.