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  • October 12, 2008 at 10:59 AM #14191
    SDEngineer
    Participant

    I’m looking for an investment opportunity right now, and what I’ve noticed is that the platinum group metals, and particularly palladium, have both fallen through the floor in the past few months. General consensus on several articles I’ve read is that both are now at or below the cost to produce them.

    Just wanted to see what the resident Piggs on here who might know more about metals investing than I do think on this.

    Am I missing something, or is it as it seems, a very good opportunity to get in at or close to a floor price in these commodities that would appear to me to have a very high upside?

    October 12, 2008 at 12:22 PM #286328
    Eugene
    Participant

    Speaking for platinum: there’s no platinum ETF, so it is less bubbly. (OTOH, it’s harder to invest in, you need to buy physical coins/bars with high spread or have access to futures markets)

    Speaking against platinum:
    – coming global recession may reduce the industrial demand even further.
    – currently, 60% of demand comes from autocatalysts that capture pollutants in internal combustion engines’ exhausts, mostly in diesels. Short term, it’s bad (auto sales are falling). Medium term, it _may_ be good (growing demand for cars, especially diesels, in emerging markets). Long term, it’s also bad (peak oil, switch to EVs, etc.)

    I think that platinum is underpriced compared to gold. During 2000’s, it used to trade at 50% or higher premium compared to gold, and now they are almost even. But maybe it’s gold that is overpriced.

    October 12, 2008 at 12:22 PM #286621
    Eugene
    Participant

    Speaking for platinum: there’s no platinum ETF, so it is less bubbly. (OTOH, it’s harder to invest in, you need to buy physical coins/bars with high spread or have access to futures markets)

    Speaking against platinum:
    – coming global recession may reduce the industrial demand even further.
    – currently, 60% of demand comes from autocatalysts that capture pollutants in internal combustion engines’ exhausts, mostly in diesels. Short term, it’s bad (auto sales are falling). Medium term, it _may_ be good (growing demand for cars, especially diesels, in emerging markets). Long term, it’s also bad (peak oil, switch to EVs, etc.)

    I think that platinum is underpriced compared to gold. During 2000’s, it used to trade at 50% or higher premium compared to gold, and now they are almost even. But maybe it’s gold that is overpriced.

    October 12, 2008 at 12:22 PM #286639
    Eugene
    Participant

    Speaking for platinum: there’s no platinum ETF, so it is less bubbly. (OTOH, it’s harder to invest in, you need to buy physical coins/bars with high spread or have access to futures markets)

    Speaking against platinum:
    – coming global recession may reduce the industrial demand even further.
    – currently, 60% of demand comes from autocatalysts that capture pollutants in internal combustion engines’ exhausts, mostly in diesels. Short term, it’s bad (auto sales are falling). Medium term, it _may_ be good (growing demand for cars, especially diesels, in emerging markets). Long term, it’s also bad (peak oil, switch to EVs, etc.)

    I think that platinum is underpriced compared to gold. During 2000’s, it used to trade at 50% or higher premium compared to gold, and now they are almost even. But maybe it’s gold that is overpriced.

    October 12, 2008 at 12:22 PM #286667
    Eugene
    Participant

    Speaking for platinum: there’s no platinum ETF, so it is less bubbly. (OTOH, it’s harder to invest in, you need to buy physical coins/bars with high spread or have access to futures markets)

    Speaking against platinum:
    – coming global recession may reduce the industrial demand even further.
    – currently, 60% of demand comes from autocatalysts that capture pollutants in internal combustion engines’ exhausts, mostly in diesels. Short term, it’s bad (auto sales are falling). Medium term, it _may_ be good (growing demand for cars, especially diesels, in emerging markets). Long term, it’s also bad (peak oil, switch to EVs, etc.)

    I think that platinum is underpriced compared to gold. During 2000’s, it used to trade at 50% or higher premium compared to gold, and now they are almost even. But maybe it’s gold that is overpriced.

    October 12, 2008 at 12:22 PM #286670
    Eugene
    Participant

    Speaking for platinum: there’s no platinum ETF, so it is less bubbly. (OTOH, it’s harder to invest in, you need to buy physical coins/bars with high spread or have access to futures markets)

    Speaking against platinum:
    – coming global recession may reduce the industrial demand even further.
    – currently, 60% of demand comes from autocatalysts that capture pollutants in internal combustion engines’ exhausts, mostly in diesels. Short term, it’s bad (auto sales are falling). Medium term, it _may_ be good (growing demand for cars, especially diesels, in emerging markets). Long term, it’s also bad (peak oil, switch to EVs, etc.)

    I think that platinum is underpriced compared to gold. During 2000’s, it used to trade at 50% or higher premium compared to gold, and now they are almost even. But maybe it’s gold that is overpriced.

    October 12, 2008 at 1:11 PM #286358
    SDEngineer
    Participant

    Thanks esmith

    What do you think about mining stocks? They seem to be undervalued in general relative to the historical commodity prices as well?

    Any tips/sectors that you think I should be looking at?

    October 12, 2008 at 1:11 PM #286651
    SDEngineer
    Participant

    Thanks esmith

    What do you think about mining stocks? They seem to be undervalued in general relative to the historical commodity prices as well?

    Any tips/sectors that you think I should be looking at?

    October 12, 2008 at 1:11 PM #286669
    SDEngineer
    Participant

    Thanks esmith

    What do you think about mining stocks? They seem to be undervalued in general relative to the historical commodity prices as well?

    Any tips/sectors that you think I should be looking at?

    October 12, 2008 at 1:11 PM #286696
    SDEngineer
    Participant

    Thanks esmith

    What do you think about mining stocks? They seem to be undervalued in general relative to the historical commodity prices as well?

    Any tips/sectors that you think I should be looking at?

    October 12, 2008 at 1:11 PM #286700
    SDEngineer
    Participant

    Thanks esmith

    What do you think about mining stocks? They seem to be undervalued in general relative to the historical commodity prices as well?

    Any tips/sectors that you think I should be looking at?

    October 12, 2008 at 1:59 PM #286383
    stockstradr
    Participant

    Speaking against platinum:
    – coming global recession may reduce the industrial demand even further.
    – currently, 60% of demand comes from autocatalysts that capture pollutants

    That is exactly why I’m NOT buying any platinum, at least not until I think we’ve reached the darkest depths of this recession/depression. I figure the bottom is at least 9 months to 18 months away.

    I agree that $950/ounce was bargain pricing, but it will go even lower. Just wait.

    October 12, 2008 at 1:59 PM #286676
    stockstradr
    Participant

    Speaking against platinum:
    – coming global recession may reduce the industrial demand even further.
    – currently, 60% of demand comes from autocatalysts that capture pollutants

    That is exactly why I’m NOT buying any platinum, at least not until I think we’ve reached the darkest depths of this recession/depression. I figure the bottom is at least 9 months to 18 months away.

    I agree that $950/ounce was bargain pricing, but it will go even lower. Just wait.

    October 12, 2008 at 1:59 PM #286695
    stockstradr
    Participant

    Speaking against platinum:
    – coming global recession may reduce the industrial demand even further.
    – currently, 60% of demand comes from autocatalysts that capture pollutants

    That is exactly why I’m NOT buying any platinum, at least not until I think we’ve reached the darkest depths of this recession/depression. I figure the bottom is at least 9 months to 18 months away.

    I agree that $950/ounce was bargain pricing, but it will go even lower. Just wait.

    October 12, 2008 at 1:59 PM #286721
    stockstradr
    Participant

    Speaking against platinum:
    – coming global recession may reduce the industrial demand even further.
    – currently, 60% of demand comes from autocatalysts that capture pollutants

    That is exactly why I’m NOT buying any platinum, at least not until I think we’ve reached the darkest depths of this recession/depression. I figure the bottom is at least 9 months to 18 months away.

    I agree that $950/ounce was bargain pricing, but it will go even lower. Just wait.

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