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  • September 27, 2008 at 10:27 PM #13982
    ltokuda
    Participant

    I talked to my brother about this subject. He works for a company which has some ties to wall street so he gets to talk to some knowledgeable money managers. Here’s part of the problem with the MBS market:

    Suppose company A wants to sell a pool of MBS’s to company B. Suppose A and B analyze the pool and both come to the conclusion that the pool is worth 80 cents on the dollar. Then suppose company A offers to sell the pool to company B for 70 cents on the dollar. Would company B take the offer?

    The probable answer is NO. The reason is that MBS’s are bad for publicity. If company B announced that they were buying MBS’s, there’s a good chance that investors will lose confidence in them and the market might punish their stock. So even though company B might see a good deal on the table, they probably won’t take it. The negative publicity penalty is too high.

    Another issue with MBS’s is that the money managers have a herd mentality. When everyone was buying MBS’s, it didn’t really matter if you lost money on them. Since everyone made the same mistake, you didn’t look *too* bad. But since no one is buying MBS’s right now, if you buy some and lose money on them, you’ll probably be fired. Money managers aren’t inclined to take that kind of risk.

    A bailout plan might work if the government can take advantage of the fear in the market and purchase MBS’s at below their theoretical values. In the above example, if the government were offered the MBS pool at 70 cents on the dollar, the government should say YES. That way, the public can probably earn a profit in the long run.

    I’m still not sure how a bailout plan will stimulate others to enter the MBS’s market. I have one guess, though. I think there are entities out there (like sovereign wealth funds) that are waiting on the sidelines to buy at rock bottom prices. They won’t accept a 70 cents on the dollar offer now if they think they can get 20 cents on the dollar next month. So if the fed starts buying MBS’s, it puts a floor on how much of a discount you can get. Once the floor is in sight, these entities might start to jump in.

    The Paulson plan doesn’t seem to be designed to benefit the tax payer. It looks like Paulson plans to purchase MBS’s at ABOVE their theoretical values. That doesn’t make any sense. How can you attract other bidders to the market if you’re going to enforce artificially high prices? So even though a bailout plan COULD work, it doesn’t look like the Paulson plan will.

    September 27, 2008 at 10:44 PM #276777
    stockstradr
    Participant

    Listen to the Roubini teleconference (linked from another current thread on this forum), where an objective smart economist shares how he thinks the plan should be reformulated to include.

    As originally concocted by Paulson, anyone with a functioning brain could see the plan is a confidence game, also known as a bunko, con, flim flam, gaffle, grift, scam, scheme, or swindle!

    It’s obvious goal was to use fear to swindle money from good American taxpayers and use that money to prevent RICH shareholders of (such as Paulson) from losing money on their stock shares in Wall St. financial firms

    Reason why confidence scam artist (also Treasury Secretary) GOT ON HIS KNEES to beg the Speaker of the House is because Paulson wants to save (w/taxpayer money) his own hundreds of millions of stock and options in Goldman Sachs (for which he was previously CEO!)

    Wake up America to this scam.

    September 27, 2008 at 10:44 PM #276825
    stockstradr
    Participant

    Listen to the Roubini teleconference (linked from another current thread on this forum), where an objective smart economist shares how he thinks the plan should be reformulated to include.

    As originally concocted by Paulson, anyone with a functioning brain could see the plan is a confidence game, also known as a bunko, con, flim flam, gaffle, grift, scam, scheme, or swindle!

    It’s obvious goal was to use fear to swindle money from good American taxpayers and use that money to prevent RICH shareholders of (such as Paulson) from losing money on their stock shares in Wall St. financial firms

    Reason why confidence scam artist (also Treasury Secretary) GOT ON HIS KNEES to beg the Speaker of the House is because Paulson wants to save (w/taxpayer money) his own hundreds of millions of stock and options in Goldman Sachs (for which he was previously CEO!)

    Wake up America to this scam.

    September 27, 2008 at 10:44 PM #276811
    stockstradr
    Participant

    Listen to the Roubini teleconference (linked from another current thread on this forum), where an objective smart economist shares how he thinks the plan should be reformulated to include.

    As originally concocted by Paulson, anyone with a functioning brain could see the plan is a confidence game, also known as a bunko, con, flim flam, gaffle, grift, scam, scheme, or swindle!

    It’s obvious goal was to use fear to swindle money from good American taxpayers and use that money to prevent RICH shareholders of (such as Paulson) from losing money on their stock shares in Wall St. financial firms

    Reason why confidence scam artist (also Treasury Secretary) GOT ON HIS KNEES to beg the Speaker of the House is because Paulson wants to save (w/taxpayer money) his own hundreds of millions of stock and options in Goldman Sachs (for which he was previously CEO!)

    Wake up America to this scam.

    September 27, 2008 at 10:44 PM #276759
    stockstradr
    Participant

    Listen to the Roubini teleconference (linked from another current thread on this forum), where an objective smart economist shares how he thinks the plan should be reformulated to include.

    As originally concocted by Paulson, anyone with a functioning brain could see the plan is a confidence game, also known as a bunko, con, flim flam, gaffle, grift, scam, scheme, or swindle!

    It’s obvious goal was to use fear to swindle money from good American taxpayers and use that money to prevent RICH shareholders of (such as Paulson) from losing money on their stock shares in Wall St. financial firms

    Reason why confidence scam artist (also Treasury Secretary) GOT ON HIS KNEES to beg the Speaker of the House is because Paulson wants to save (w/taxpayer money) his own hundreds of millions of stock and options in Goldman Sachs (for which he was previously CEO!)

    Wake up America to this scam.

    September 27, 2008 at 10:44 PM #276503
    stockstradr
    Participant

    Listen to the Roubini teleconference (linked from another current thread on this forum), where an objective smart economist shares how he thinks the plan should be reformulated to include.

    As originally concocted by Paulson, anyone with a functioning brain could see the plan is a confidence game, also known as a bunko, con, flim flam, gaffle, grift, scam, scheme, or swindle!

    It’s obvious goal was to use fear to swindle money from good American taxpayers and use that money to prevent RICH shareholders of (such as Paulson) from losing money on their stock shares in Wall St. financial firms

    Reason why confidence scam artist (also Treasury Secretary) GOT ON HIS KNEES to beg the Speaker of the House is because Paulson wants to save (w/taxpayer money) his own hundreds of millions of stock and options in Goldman Sachs (for which he was previously CEO!)

    Wake up America to this scam.

    September 27, 2008 at 11:30 PM #276885
    KIBU
    Participant

    [quote] The Paulson plan doesn’t seem to be designed to benefit the tax payer. It looks like Paulson plans to purchase MBS’s at ABOVE their theoretical values. That doesn’t make any sense. How can you attract other bidders to the market if you’re going to enforce artificially high prices? So even though a bailout plan COULD work, it doesn’t look like the Paulson plan will.[/quote]

    I think Paulson wants to balance between moving the toxic MBS out of portfolios of these companies to clear the clog for the short term while not overpay too much for these MBS so that tax payer still have a chance of breaking even for the long term.

    But the goal won’t principally be for tax payer’s recoup of money, rather in the short term to overpay these MBS enough in order to support the survival of problem wallstreet firms.

    September 27, 2008 at 11:30 PM #276819
    KIBU
    Participant

    [quote] The Paulson plan doesn’t seem to be designed to benefit the tax payer. It looks like Paulson plans to purchase MBS’s at ABOVE their theoretical values. That doesn’t make any sense. How can you attract other bidders to the market if you’re going to enforce artificially high prices? So even though a bailout plan COULD work, it doesn’t look like the Paulson plan will.[/quote]

    I think Paulson wants to balance between moving the toxic MBS out of portfolios of these companies to clear the clog for the short term while not overpay too much for these MBS so that tax payer still have a chance of breaking even for the long term.

    But the goal won’t principally be for tax payer’s recoup of money, rather in the short term to overpay these MBS enough in order to support the survival of problem wallstreet firms.

    September 27, 2008 at 11:30 PM #276563
    KIBU
    Participant

    [quote] The Paulson plan doesn’t seem to be designed to benefit the tax payer. It looks like Paulson plans to purchase MBS’s at ABOVE their theoretical values. That doesn’t make any sense. How can you attract other bidders to the market if you’re going to enforce artificially high prices? So even though a bailout plan COULD work, it doesn’t look like the Paulson plan will.[/quote]

    I think Paulson wants to balance between moving the toxic MBS out of portfolios of these companies to clear the clog for the short term while not overpay too much for these MBS so that tax payer still have a chance of breaking even for the long term.

    But the goal won’t principally be for tax payer’s recoup of money, rather in the short term to overpay these MBS enough in order to support the survival of problem wallstreet firms.

    September 27, 2008 at 11:30 PM #276837
    KIBU
    Participant

    [quote] The Paulson plan doesn’t seem to be designed to benefit the tax payer. It looks like Paulson plans to purchase MBS’s at ABOVE their theoretical values. That doesn’t make any sense. How can you attract other bidders to the market if you’re going to enforce artificially high prices? So even though a bailout plan COULD work, it doesn’t look like the Paulson plan will.[/quote]

    I think Paulson wants to balance between moving the toxic MBS out of portfolios of these companies to clear the clog for the short term while not overpay too much for these MBS so that tax payer still have a chance of breaking even for the long term.

    But the goal won’t principally be for tax payer’s recoup of money, rather in the short term to overpay these MBS enough in order to support the survival of problem wallstreet firms.

    September 27, 2008 at 11:30 PM #276871
    KIBU
    Participant

    [quote] The Paulson plan doesn’t seem to be designed to benefit the tax payer. It looks like Paulson plans to purchase MBS’s at ABOVE their theoretical values. That doesn’t make any sense. How can you attract other bidders to the market if you’re going to enforce artificially high prices? So even though a bailout plan COULD work, it doesn’t look like the Paulson plan will.[/quote]

    I think Paulson wants to balance between moving the toxic MBS out of portfolios of these companies to clear the clog for the short term while not overpay too much for these MBS so that tax payer still have a chance of breaking even for the long term.

    But the goal won’t principally be for tax payer’s recoup of money, rather in the short term to overpay these MBS enough in order to support the survival of problem wallstreet firms.

    September 27, 2008 at 11:46 PM #276895
    ltokuda
    Participant

    KIBU, I understand how the fed can move MBS’s off a companies balance sheet. But in Paulson’s testimony, he said that the fed’s purchases of MBS’s would “prime the pump” for the market and attract other investors. That doesn’t seem possible if the fed is paying artificially high prices.

    stockstradr, I’ll check out the video as you suggested. I’m a regular reader of Roubini’s blog but it will be interesting to get views from other economists as well.

    September 27, 2008 at 11:46 PM #276573
    ltokuda
    Participant

    KIBU, I understand how the fed can move MBS’s off a companies balance sheet. But in Paulson’s testimony, he said that the fed’s purchases of MBS’s would “prime the pump” for the market and attract other investors. That doesn’t seem possible if the fed is paying artificially high prices.

    stockstradr, I’ll check out the video as you suggested. I’m a regular reader of Roubini’s blog but it will be interesting to get views from other economists as well.

    September 27, 2008 at 11:46 PM #276829
    ltokuda
    Participant

    KIBU, I understand how the fed can move MBS’s off a companies balance sheet. But in Paulson’s testimony, he said that the fed’s purchases of MBS’s would “prime the pump” for the market and attract other investors. That doesn’t seem possible if the fed is paying artificially high prices.

    stockstradr, I’ll check out the video as you suggested. I’m a regular reader of Roubini’s blog but it will be interesting to get views from other economists as well.

    September 27, 2008 at 11:46 PM #276881
    ltokuda
    Participant

    KIBU, I understand how the fed can move MBS’s off a companies balance sheet. But in Paulson’s testimony, he said that the fed’s purchases of MBS’s would “prime the pump” for the market and attract other investors. That doesn’t seem possible if the fed is paying artificially high prices.

    stockstradr, I’ll check out the video as you suggested. I’m a regular reader of Roubini’s blog but it will be interesting to get views from other economists as well.

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