I am in foreign currencies for some of my cash accounts but before doing that I highly recommend understanding what drives the values.
If we head into a short or mild recession what you see going on now will continue and being out of the dollar would serve you well. Pick a currency like the Aussie$ that has a high interest rate and you will be happy. (I own some)
However, if this downturn goes the way I believe it will, those same currencies will get punished. If you have been watching the Yen and how it is getting stronger, this is a sign the yen carry trade is unwinding. If it unwinds you will see strength in the yen but also the US dollar and most of the speculative (high interest rate) currencies will take a beating. The dollar is still the reserve currency of the world and if we see major market dislocations around the world, people will come back to the dollar eventually.(run home to momma)
There is too much here to go into to try and explain the currency markets and I certainly have only a very small grasp of it myself. Bottom line, if you are going to buy the speculative currencies you need to watch them like a hawk and know when to exit. If you believe we are headed for more pain and the yen carry trade will unwind, having some Yen isn’t a bad idea.
