Sorry bro, this thing is a long, long way from being over. We’re maybe in the second inning. No one really knows, and no one wants to come out and say how long it is going to be bad for, because no one wants to be guilty of creating a bad reality.

Not only is there massive excess inventory, people bought houses they cannot afford. And to top it off, people borrowed money against houses they could not afford, and went out and spent that money on Porsches and granite countertops and subzero fridges. The money is gone, all gone. Not quite true, of course; some people invested their refi and sale cash. But plenty of it went to fueling GDP growth – remember the endless marveling about the indefatigable U.S. consumer? That money came from somewhere: debt.

All that must be repaid, and all must be readjusted. The process will take a very long time.