Oh yeah, and for the clown poster trying to claim that we are starting to sweat…not hardly. In fact, I grow further emboldened as each week passes because I know what the Macro Picture is and it ain’t good.

1.) 1,000 homes auctioned per day in California in April.
2.) Most of those go back to the banks which have yet to write them down.
3.) Negative Non-Borrowed Reserves balance on Fed Reserve Balance Sheet. Banks don’t have your money anymore…that’s not good and the bond market will eventually have their say…then watch the interest rates climb.
4.) Second Wave of Resets/Recasts from Alt-A and Pay Option Arms for higher credit score borrowers..you know…the high end homes like CV and 4S.

I can keep on going, but that is plenty enough for me to not feel insecure about where the housing market in SoCal is headed over the next several years.

Oh yeah, and for the clown poster trying to claim that we are starting to sweat…not hardly. In fact, I grow further emboldened as each week passes because I know what the Macro Picture is and it ain’t good.

1.) 1,000 homes auctioned per day in California in April.
2.) Most of those go back to the banks which have yet to write them down.
3.) Negative Non-Borrowed Reserves balance on Fed Reserve Balance Sheet. Banks don’t have your money anymore…that’s not good and the bond market will eventually have their say…then watch the interest rates climb.
4.) Second Wave of Resets/Recasts from Alt-A and Pay Option Arms for higher credit score borrowers..you know…the high end homes like CV and 4S.

I can keep on going, but that is plenty enough for me to not feel insecure about where the housing market in SoCal is headed over the next several years.

Oh yeah, and for the clown poster trying to claim that we are starting to sweat…not hardly. In fact, I grow further emboldened as each week passes because I know what the Macro Picture is and it ain’t good.

1.) 1,000 homes auctioned per day in California in April.
2.) Most of those go back to the banks which have yet to write them down.
3.) Negative Non-Borrowed Reserves balance on Fed Reserve Balance Sheet. Banks don’t have your money anymore…that’s not good and the bond market will eventually have their say…then watch the interest rates climb.
4.) Second Wave of Resets/Recasts from Alt-A and Pay Option Arms for higher credit score borrowers..you know…the high end homes like CV and 4S.

I can keep on going, but that is plenty enough for me to not feel insecure about where the housing market in SoCal is headed over the next several years.

Actually Ex-SD, the scariest item in that list in #3, but it is also the least understood. Basically, the banking system is technically insolvent. There are solvent banks obviously, but on balance they aren’t. This is why the FDIC is ramping up the number of people they need for coming bank failures..they know..they should know. A bunch of consumer banks failing is not a big deal, but it is when commercial banks fail that we have a big problem and that is namely the lack of credit available for businesses to operate with. Watch what happens to employment when banks don’t want to rollover LOCs or jack up their interest rate and making capital investment too costly for small to medium size businesses. It’s a bitch when the CFO has to decide on whether or not to make the payroll or pay a critical materials vendor. Meanwhile, the customers are 90 days late because their hurting too.

This is the real systemic risk that keeps Bernanke awake at night, not whether a bunch of piddly consumer banks go down. It is the commercial level banking that would really put us in a bind if it goes sour.

Actually Ex-SD, the scariest item in that list in #3, but it is also the least understood. Basically, the banking system is technically insolvent. There are solvent banks obviously, but on balance they aren’t. This is why the FDIC is ramping up the number of people they need for coming bank failures..they know..they should know. A bunch of consumer banks failing is not a big deal, but it is when commercial banks fail that we have a big problem and that is namely the lack of credit available for businesses to operate with. Watch what happens to employment when banks don’t want to rollover LOCs or jack up their interest rate and making capital investment too costly for small to medium size businesses. It’s a bitch when the CFO has to decide on whether or not to make the payroll or pay a critical materials vendor. Meanwhile, the customers are 90 days late because their hurting too.

This is the real systemic risk that keeps Bernanke awake at night, not whether a bunch of piddly consumer banks go down. It is the commercial level banking that would really put us in a bind if it goes sour.