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  • March 9, 2008 at 10:43 PM #12048
    gandalf
    Participant

    Conditions in housing and credit markets have become extremely concerning very quickly. Things have deteriorated and spread more rapidly than expected, with signs pointing to deep and possibly lasting economic weakness.

    How does all this shake out in the public sector? Any educated guesses out there as to the impacts on state and local government and educational systems? Any insights?

    – What are the impacts on the State of California?
    – What are the impacts on the City of San Diego?
    – What are the impacts on education, K-12 and HE?

    And a follow-up: in the context of macro-economic theory, restrictive fiscal policy during a recession is thought to be one of the worst courses of action to pursue, as it tends to exacerbate weakness in the economy via multiplier effect. And yet, I don’t see how the state/counties/cities are going to be able to balance their books without slashing jobs, services and budgets. Thoughts?

    March 10, 2008 at 6:50 AM #166636
    kewp
    Participant

    And yet, I don’t see how the state/counties/cities are going to be able to balance their books without slashing jobs, services and budgets.

    Raise taxes?

    I work for the UC system. Given our record enrollment and the amount of expansion going on its pretty trivial for us to balance our budget. Just raise fees, cut enrollment and slow/halt expansion. I expect lots of other state institutions can do this as well.

    March 10, 2008 at 6:50 AM #166954
    kewp
    Participant

    And yet, I don’t see how the state/counties/cities are going to be able to balance their books without slashing jobs, services and budgets.

    Raise taxes?

    I work for the UC system. Given our record enrollment and the amount of expansion going on its pretty trivial for us to balance our budget. Just raise fees, cut enrollment and slow/halt expansion. I expect lots of other state institutions can do this as well.

    March 10, 2008 at 6:50 AM #166961
    kewp
    Participant

    And yet, I don’t see how the state/counties/cities are going to be able to balance their books without slashing jobs, services and budgets.

    Raise taxes?

    I work for the UC system. Given our record enrollment and the amount of expansion going on its pretty trivial for us to balance our budget. Just raise fees, cut enrollment and slow/halt expansion. I expect lots of other state institutions can do this as well.

    March 10, 2008 at 6:50 AM #166992
    kewp
    Participant

    And yet, I don’t see how the state/counties/cities are going to be able to balance their books without slashing jobs, services and budgets.

    Raise taxes?

    I work for the UC system. Given our record enrollment and the amount of expansion going on its pretty trivial for us to balance our budget. Just raise fees, cut enrollment and slow/halt expansion. I expect lots of other state institutions can do this as well.

    March 10, 2008 at 6:50 AM #167053
    kewp
    Participant

    And yet, I don’t see how the state/counties/cities are going to be able to balance their books without slashing jobs, services and budgets.

    Raise taxes?

    I work for the UC system. Given our record enrollment and the amount of expansion going on its pretty trivial for us to balance our budget. Just raise fees, cut enrollment and slow/halt expansion. I expect lots of other state institutions can do this as well.

    March 10, 2008 at 10:11 AM #166711
    sd-maybe
    Participant

    They’re going to have to suck it up. Just like the state budget is a disaster because spending ramped up on the illusion of endless tax revenue fueled by the dot com boom, local/county government budget spending ramped up on the illusion of endless property tax revenue fueled by the real estate bubble. Well the illusion is over now and spending must retract to get into alignment with reality.

    March 10, 2008 at 10:11 AM #167128
    sd-maybe
    Participant

    They’re going to have to suck it up. Just like the state budget is a disaster because spending ramped up on the illusion of endless tax revenue fueled by the dot com boom, local/county government budget spending ramped up on the illusion of endless property tax revenue fueled by the real estate bubble. Well the illusion is over now and spending must retract to get into alignment with reality.

    March 10, 2008 at 10:11 AM #167031
    sd-maybe
    Participant

    They’re going to have to suck it up. Just like the state budget is a disaster because spending ramped up on the illusion of endless tax revenue fueled by the dot com boom, local/county government budget spending ramped up on the illusion of endless property tax revenue fueled by the real estate bubble. Well the illusion is over now and spending must retract to get into alignment with reality.

    March 10, 2008 at 10:11 AM #167036
    sd-maybe
    Participant

    They’re going to have to suck it up. Just like the state budget is a disaster because spending ramped up on the illusion of endless tax revenue fueled by the dot com boom, local/county government budget spending ramped up on the illusion of endless property tax revenue fueled by the real estate bubble. Well the illusion is over now and spending must retract to get into alignment with reality.

    March 10, 2008 at 10:11 AM #167067
    sd-maybe
    Participant

    They’re going to have to suck it up. Just like the state budget is a disaster because spending ramped up on the illusion of endless tax revenue fueled by the dot com boom, local/county government budget spending ramped up on the illusion of endless property tax revenue fueled by the real estate bubble. Well the illusion is over now and spending must retract to get into alignment with reality.

    March 10, 2008 at 11:24 AM #167066
    gandalf
    Participant

    Small world, kewp. UCSD? What part of the University? I worked in RMP for many years. UCSD is a great place. The UC System is a remarkable institution, very much an economic engine for the state.

    Yep, I understand and agree re: boxing quantity/quality with available resources (programs, enrollment, student fees, etc.). I don’t know if it’s trivial, but certainly doable.

    What do you think about the state and municipal situation? A large portion of the state budget, for example, is directed towards K-12 and healthcare. Not as many variables to ‘dial down’ (e.g. capping enrollment).

    What happens to the City of San Diego? Seems like the smart Mayor/Council would have been shoring things up while the money was there. With the tide going out, I wonder what happens to the City’s prospects of avoiding bankruptcy?

    March 10, 2008 at 11:24 AM #167158
    gandalf
    Participant

    Small world, kewp. UCSD? What part of the University? I worked in RMP for many years. UCSD is a great place. The UC System is a remarkable institution, very much an economic engine for the state.

    Yep, I understand and agree re: boxing quantity/quality with available resources (programs, enrollment, student fees, etc.). I don’t know if it’s trivial, but certainly doable.

    What do you think about the state and municipal situation? A large portion of the state budget, for example, is directed towards K-12 and healthcare. Not as many variables to ‘dial down’ (e.g. capping enrollment).

    What happens to the City of San Diego? Seems like the smart Mayor/Council would have been shoring things up while the money was there. With the tide going out, I wonder what happens to the City’s prospects of avoiding bankruptcy?

    March 10, 2008 at 11:24 AM #167097
    gandalf
    Participant

    Small world, kewp. UCSD? What part of the University? I worked in RMP for many years. UCSD is a great place. The UC System is a remarkable institution, very much an economic engine for the state.

    Yep, I understand and agree re: boxing quantity/quality with available resources (programs, enrollment, student fees, etc.). I don’t know if it’s trivial, but certainly doable.

    What do you think about the state and municipal situation? A large portion of the state budget, for example, is directed towards K-12 and healthcare. Not as many variables to ‘dial down’ (e.g. capping enrollment).

    What happens to the City of San Diego? Seems like the smart Mayor/Council would have been shoring things up while the money was there. With the tide going out, I wonder what happens to the City’s prospects of avoiding bankruptcy?

    March 10, 2008 at 11:24 AM #167060
    gandalf
    Participant

    Small world, kewp. UCSD? What part of the University? I worked in RMP for many years. UCSD is a great place. The UC System is a remarkable institution, very much an economic engine for the state.

    Yep, I understand and agree re: boxing quantity/quality with available resources (programs, enrollment, student fees, etc.). I don’t know if it’s trivial, but certainly doable.

    What do you think about the state and municipal situation? A large portion of the state budget, for example, is directed towards K-12 and healthcare. Not as many variables to ‘dial down’ (e.g. capping enrollment).

    What happens to the City of San Diego? Seems like the smart Mayor/Council would have been shoring things up while the money was there. With the tide going out, I wonder what happens to the City’s prospects of avoiding bankruptcy?

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