Not really news to anyone on here, but just recently having looked at the townhome communities in Windingwalk (Agave & Clover), builder is selling new phases in the high 200s. Short sales abound for anywhere from 15-30% below builder prices. Somewhere in the low 200s basically. Property tax is over 2%, plus ~$300 dual HOAs is insane. No wonder there are so many defaults and short sales.

Almost four years since the OP, and I still feel a lot of downward momentum in that area particularly. We considered it a lot before closing on our place in UC. Eastlake is not a terrible place IMHO (esp. if you can work from home a bit). Any thoughts from Piggs on where things may be headed there?

Not really news to anyone on here, but just recently having looked at the townhome communities in Windingwalk (Agave & Clover), builder is selling new phases in the high 200s. Short sales abound for anywhere from 15-30% below builder prices. Somewhere in the low 200s basically. Property tax is over 2%, plus ~$300 dual HOAs is insane. No wonder there are so many defaults and short sales.

Almost four years since the OP, and I still feel a lot of downward momentum in that area particularly. We considered it a lot before closing on our place in UC. Eastlake is not a terrible place IMHO (esp. if you can work from home a bit). Any thoughts from Piggs on where things may be headed there?

Not really news to anyone on here, but just recently having looked at the townhome communities in Windingwalk (Agave & Clover), builder is selling new phases in the high 200s. Short sales abound for anywhere from 15-30% below builder prices. Somewhere in the low 200s basically. Property tax is over 2%, plus ~$300 dual HOAs is insane. No wonder there are so many defaults and short sales.

Almost four years since the OP, and I still feel a lot of downward momentum in that area particularly. We considered it a lot before closing on our place in UC. Eastlake is not a terrible place IMHO (esp. if you can work from home a bit). Any thoughts from Piggs on where things may be headed there?

beselfish, to answer your question on where things are heading, all current signs still point downward. Although distressed property in 91914 and 91915 sells quickly after it is listed, REO lenders are in collusion with each other to “trickle out” one or two of the same or “mirror-image” models on the market at any one time, so as to hopefully create a “bidding war” among buyers and thus get a higher price than what the market would bear if all the distressed inventory was dumped on the market at once.

There is still a TREMENDOUS AMOUNT of “shadow inventory” in various stages of default/REO there which has yet to be marketed. I don’t think prices will completely “shake out” and stabilize in those areas (ALL built since 2000) until at least 2014.

beselfish, to answer your question on where things are heading, all current signs still point downward. Although distressed property in 91914 and 91915 sells quickly after it is listed, REO lenders are in collusion with each other to “trickle out” one or two of the same or “mirror-image” models on the market at any one time, so as to hopefully create a “bidding war” among buyers and thus get a higher price than what the market would bear if all the distressed inventory was dumped on the market at once.

There is still a TREMENDOUS AMOUNT of “shadow inventory” in various stages of default/REO there which has yet to be marketed. I don’t think prices will completely “shake out” and stabilize in those areas (ALL built since 2000) until at least 2014.

beselfish, are you aware the SR-125 has been built thru this area since the OP? HOWEVER, it costs nearly $5 per use to travel its entire length (about 9.5 mi). Windingwalk is one of the furthest-out communities in Otay Ranch (abt 22 mi from dtn SD). If you lived there and wanted to skip the toll road, I have heard it takes 35+ minutes to crawl to I-805 during rush hour on Olympic Pkwy or Otay Lakes/Telegraph Cyn Rd (just to enter the fwy). Then you have the stop and go fwy traffic northbound until about 8:20 am. For this reason, it is NOT a convenient area for a northbound “worker bee” to live in.

The vast majority of the communities in Otay Ranch (esp Windingwalk) are built VERY tight and offer little privacy. In addition, some of them have two or more HOA encumbrances and ALL have MR, as you are aware.

IMO, you can get a LOT more “bang for the buck” buying an SFR in 91902, 91910, 91911 and 91914 (Rolling Hills Ranch only) while avoiding MR and minimal or zero HOA dues. In addition, you will likely get a lot between 6000 and 14,000 sf (up to 22,000 for a heavy “fixer”) for the same prices as the asking prices of new construction in the southeastern portion of Otay Ranch.

beselfish, are you aware the SR-125 has been built thru this area since the OP? HOWEVER, it costs nearly $5 per use to travel its entire length (about 9.5 mi). Windingwalk is one of the furthest-out communities in Otay Ranch (abt 22 mi from dtn SD). If you lived there and wanted to skip the toll road, I have heard it takes 35+ minutes to crawl to I-805 during rush hour on Olympic Pkwy or Otay Lakes/Telegraph Cyn Rd (just to enter the fwy). Then you have the stop and go fwy traffic northbound until about 8:20 am. For this reason, it is NOT a convenient area for a northbound “worker bee” to live in.

The vast majority of the communities in Otay Ranch (esp Windingwalk) are built VERY tight and offer little privacy. In addition, some of them have two or more HOA encumbrances and ALL have MR, as you are aware.

IMO, you can get a LOT more “bang for the buck” buying an SFR in 91902, 91910, 91911 and 91914 (Rolling Hills Ranch only) while avoiding MR and minimal or zero HOA dues. In addition, you will likely get a lot between 6000 and 14,000 sf (up to 22,000 for a heavy “fixer”) for the same prices as the asking prices of new construction in the southeastern portion of Otay Ranch.