I’ve enjoyed reading this web site over the past several weeks. Curious about the SB/DM market place. Doesn’t seem that they are dropping the prices in those areas and/or having the number of NOT / NOD as other zips.
Unfortunately (I’m a renter) you can add Scripps Ranch, Carmel Valley, and 4S Ranch to that list (areas I want to buy). The drops here have been painfully slow. The stickiness of prices seems counter intuitive but prices remain very high . . . . As in any RE cycle the places which are currently getting hammered the worst in SD are the worst areas. The good areas seem to be holding for now.
“holding” = 5-10% decline but no retrenchment to 2003 levels.
Beachlover these areas will take longer to drop. They will drop eventually, as to how much they will drop varies with who you ask. The problem is that these areas have stronger fundamentals. They do not have the degree of speculation that many other areas have had. They typically are also characterized by larger home equity stakes, more stable owners, and of course higher wage earners. Additionally these homeowners ON THE AVERAGE, have not treated their homes as ATMs. On the whole there is less distress in many of the more desireable areas. Distress will creep into them and then they will start to fall at an uneven pace…(see 2 paragraphs down)
I am not saying there will not be foreclosures in some of these areas, I am saying however they will be to a lesser degree. Furthermore as these are more desireable areas their will continue to be a demand for them. The demand will of course not be as strong as previous years but it will still be there.
Within these more desireable areas I feel there will be variances as to the declines. In general I feel the newer the area is, the more prone it will be to a decline both temporal and substantiative. That is, to me 4S will fall sooner and fall harder then Solana Beach. You get my drift? Fundamentally 4S is on much shakier ground then say Solana Beach.
When I have more time I was going to try to do a short/reo comparison of desireable verses non desireable zip code to see if there is a disparity and I think it will become more evident.
Is there a way to get the number of mortgages as a percentage of all homes in a given zip? The average outstanding loan amount in a zip code would also be interesting…
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