- This topic has 7 replies, 7 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 2 months ago by
El Jefe.
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September 7, 2007 at 3:59 PM #10201September 7, 2007 at 4:42 PM #83798
Bugs
ParticipantThe outlying areas relative to employment are mostly getting it worse than the more centralized locations, and condos are getting is worse than detached homes.
If by “high ground” you mean markets wherein the floods will only rise neck high that would probably mean the more popular communities, which should not be confused as being synonymous with the most desireable communities.
September 7, 2007 at 4:59 PM #838034spotentialbuyer
Participant4S Ranch McMansion homes already lost 15-20%
Ex/Spring 2006 Grand Opening Silhouette Phase 1A 3000+sq ft SFHPlan 1 786K
Plan 2 860-880k
Plan 3 880Kcurrently available lots that fell out of escrow
Plan 2 740-780K plus 20K incentive
Plan 3 740K plus 20K incentiveApprox 15-20% drop in last 16 months for new homes from the builders. Resale homes have not caught up yet, however it is only a matter of time. Not sure how much lower these 3000 sq ft homes will go and so I will be watching, waiting, renting, and saving in order to get a good deal.
September 7, 2007 at 6:27 PM #83819j
ParticipantIf you are talking houses look at the wage/house value ratio. Places like Wyoming with is natural gas and Texas with its descent economy and low home prices will do fine. Places like southern California will get hammered Riverside is a construction based economy with an over supply a units and San Diego and the OC have a lot of real estate and mortgage jobs and crazy income to house value ratios.
The 90’s the decline in house values was caused by the loss of jobs. This decline in house values is going to cause a loss of jobs, which will cause spiral effect lowering prices even more. This will be the worst economic environment this country has seen since the 30’s.
September 7, 2007 at 8:58 PM #83831bubble_contagion
ParticipantAffluent communities, like Carmel Valley, will probably weather it the best since foreclousures are less likely. The worst that can happen is that sales grind to a halt. On the other hand, it only takes one distressed sale to set up the comps of the whole neighborhood.
September 8, 2007 at 8:27 AM #83854LookoutBelow
ParticipantA RE-THINK of affluent communities (gated and all) abilities of weathering the storm better is rubbish……They and their businesses are DRAMATICALLY affected by the downturn…..8/10 of them would NOT be behind those gates if it werent for the last economic prosperity of easy credit.
They will face as much foreclosure activity as the median neighborhoods, its the EXACT same…..just add more zero's….since its a much smaller market of buyers for that stuff, it just might be WORSE than median neighborhoods…..
September 10, 2007 at 8:25 AM #84024LostCat
ParticipantLostCat
I don’t believe afluency really matters with this housing market. All this housing market has done is stretched those rick guys out even more. It costs a lot of money to own 3-BMW’s and a house in McCarmel Valley.
I’d like to focus on San Diego in this discussion. What areas are least hit (Neck Deep vs 5-feet under)?
What areas are increasing the fastest in rents?
September 10, 2007 at 5:00 PM #84096El Jefe
ParticipantAffluent communities, like Carmel Valley, will probably weather it the best since foreclousures are less likely.
I would not be so sure about that. The wife of an associate of mine processed loans in CV for Wells Fargo Home Loans form ~2002 through ~2005, and they were processing a much higher percentage of Alt-A stated income loans in CV than the county wide average. Her branch dealt almost exclusively with CV and in 2004-2005 2 out of 3 loans were no/low doc stated income. You can do the math on that one.
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