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  • August 25, 2007 at 5:43 AM #10030
    Bubblesitter
    Participant

    Just another case of lazy reporting and Wall street hyping a misinterpreted number. Again, housing like many industries is seasonal. As they teach on the first day of MBA school, you always look at y-o-y numbers for key financial metrics.

    Here’s the excerpt from the actual Commerce Dept report.

    “Sales of new one-family houses in July 2007 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 870,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 2.8 percent (±12.0%)* above the revised June rate of 846,000 and is 10.2 percent (±12.3%)* below the July 2006 estimate of 969,000.”

    Note, this has an error range on this +/- 12.3%!

    The Commerce department will very likely revise this numbers down significantly. Their first estimates seem to always be optimistic side. Calculated Risk Blog, one of my favorite finance blogs has a great analysis of the latest numbers.

    http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/08/new-home-sales-revisions.html

    In addition, these numbers are from before the credit crunch hit. Now it is much more difficult to get a mortgage.

    As Mark Twain put it, ” There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”

    Anybody can take a set of numbers and twist them to meet their own agenda.

    Bubblesitter

    August 25, 2007 at 6:07 AM #80781
    Ex-SD
    Participant

    They’re just cheer-leading this spin in an attempt to stop the impending recession. It’s not gonna work. There’s too many things in play to stop it at this point.

    August 25, 2007 at 6:07 AM #80913
    Ex-SD
    Participant

    They’re just cheer-leading this spin in an attempt to stop the impending recession. It’s not gonna work. There’s too many things in play to stop it at this point.

    August 25, 2007 at 6:07 AM #80934
    Ex-SD
    Participant

    They’re just cheer-leading this spin in an attempt to stop the impending recession. It’s not gonna work. There’s too many things in play to stop it at this point.

    August 25, 2007 at 6:11 AM #80784
    Bubblesitter
    Participant

    Here’s the link to the actual Commerce Dept report.

    http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf

    I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but I wonder what kind of discussions were held putting this reports together.

    Staffed with political appointees at high levels at the Commerce department, there must be constant pressure between the Career Economists and the spin doctor political appointees.

    Measurement methodologies can have a huge impact on the actual reported numbers. I wonder how often they change these methods. A old trick may be to change the methodology to skew them in a favorable direction.

    e.g. how they handle cancellations, are they excluding certain types of home, etc, etc.

    August 25, 2007 at 6:11 AM #80916
    Bubblesitter
    Participant

    Here’s the link to the actual Commerce Dept report.

    http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf

    I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but I wonder what kind of discussions were held putting this reports together.

    Staffed with political appointees at high levels at the Commerce department, there must be constant pressure between the Career Economists and the spin doctor political appointees.

    Measurement methodologies can have a huge impact on the actual reported numbers. I wonder how often they change these methods. A old trick may be to change the methodology to skew them in a favorable direction.

    e.g. how they handle cancellations, are they excluding certain types of home, etc, etc.

    August 25, 2007 at 6:11 AM #80936
    Bubblesitter
    Participant

    Here’s the link to the actual Commerce Dept report.

    http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf

    I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but I wonder what kind of discussions were held putting this reports together.

    Staffed with political appointees at high levels at the Commerce department, there must be constant pressure between the Career Economists and the spin doctor political appointees.

    Measurement methodologies can have a huge impact on the actual reported numbers. I wonder how often they change these methods. A old trick may be to change the methodology to skew them in a favorable direction.

    e.g. how they handle cancellations, are they excluding certain types of home, etc, etc.

    August 25, 2007 at 8:28 AM #80793
    FoamFinger1
    Participant

    I have been waiting for the “moment” to occur. The moment when sales tick up or the rate of foreclosures slows ect. then the MSM will start calling this the bottom.

    Are we there yet? No. Not by a long shot.

    August 25, 2007 at 8:28 AM #80924
    FoamFinger1
    Participant

    I have been waiting for the “moment” to occur. The moment when sales tick up or the rate of foreclosures slows ect. then the MSM will start calling this the bottom.

    Are we there yet? No. Not by a long shot.

    August 25, 2007 at 8:28 AM #80945
    FoamFinger1
    Participant

    I have been waiting for the “moment” to occur. The moment when sales tick up or the rate of foreclosures slows ect. then the MSM will start calling this the bottom.

    Are we there yet? No. Not by a long shot.

    August 25, 2007 at 9:32 AM #80805
    csr_sd
    Participant

    Well I am glad to see that the data were actually reported… here not on ac360 or even krazy jim cramers show.

    It is quite amazing that even with the serious financial issues that we must face and deal with in this country, that the street and the news dont really want to get to the truth.

    I was in New Zealand last month and and their dollar was 80c US. three years ago it was 46c!!! The real value of our economy is plunging and the best the news can do is scream about an imprecise, likely inaccurate number from a single month, and the market goes up 140 pts, incredible!

    The dems, can only talk about bailouts (sens personal responsiblity) and the republicans fail to take responsibility for a failed regulatory /monetary / trade policy. This is really getting sick.

    the free country of idaho is beginning to look real nice!

    August 25, 2007 at 9:32 AM #80937
    csr_sd
    Participant

    Well I am glad to see that the data were actually reported… here not on ac360 or even krazy jim cramers show.

    It is quite amazing that even with the serious financial issues that we must face and deal with in this country, that the street and the news dont really want to get to the truth.

    I was in New Zealand last month and and their dollar was 80c US. three years ago it was 46c!!! The real value of our economy is plunging and the best the news can do is scream about an imprecise, likely inaccurate number from a single month, and the market goes up 140 pts, incredible!

    The dems, can only talk about bailouts (sens personal responsiblity) and the republicans fail to take responsibility for a failed regulatory /monetary / trade policy. This is really getting sick.

    the free country of idaho is beginning to look real nice!

    August 25, 2007 at 9:32 AM #80958
    csr_sd
    Participant

    Well I am glad to see that the data were actually reported… here not on ac360 or even krazy jim cramers show.

    It is quite amazing that even with the serious financial issues that we must face and deal with in this country, that the street and the news dont really want to get to the truth.

    I was in New Zealand last month and and their dollar was 80c US. three years ago it was 46c!!! The real value of our economy is plunging and the best the news can do is scream about an imprecise, likely inaccurate number from a single month, and the market goes up 140 pts, incredible!

    The dems, can only talk about bailouts (sens personal responsiblity) and the republicans fail to take responsibility for a failed regulatory /monetary / trade policy. This is really getting sick.

    the free country of idaho is beginning to look real nice!

    August 25, 2007 at 8:58 PM #80957
    Bubblesitter
    Participant

    2 videos on bloomberg on how these housing numbers are essentially worthless.

    Kasriel of Northern Trust “skeptical” of new-home sales data.

    And Brusuelas video

    http://www.bloomberg.com

    August 25, 2007 at 8:58 PM #81109
    Bubblesitter
    Participant

    2 videos on bloomberg on how these housing numbers are essentially worthless.

    Kasriel of Northern Trust “skeptical” of new-home sales data.

    And Brusuelas video

    http://www.bloomberg.com

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