San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
Foreclosures Still Outnumber Home Sales
Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 16, 2009 - 4:15pm
Housing sales volume has been improving of late, as I noted last week. But now that foreclosure activity has bounced back after a temporary lull that resulted from a change to state law, the number of existing homes going into foreclosure each month is once again higher than the number being sold. That was the case in December, anyway, when DataQuick recorded 3,004 existing house and condo sales compared to the 3,315 mortgage default notices recorded by the county. Default notices dropped to 3,055 in January, but while the January DataQuick numbers aren't out yet, other data indicates that sales will also be lower than they were in December.
Here's an update of a chart we've looked at from time to time as the housing bust has progressed. The orange line on the graph divides the number of single family home sales in a given month by the number of mortgage defaults that same month. The idea is to get a rough idea of how demand stacks up against potential "must-sell" supply. (Condos are excluded from the chart simply because I could only get my hands on historical sales data for single family homes, so the trend changes in this ratio are more important than the absolute number.)
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