April 2011 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 11, 2011 - 4:42pm
The median price per square foot of San Diego resale homes was somewhat mixed last month: up .2% for single family homes, but down 1.7% for condos, and down .3% in aggregate.



When in doubt, single family homes prevail due to their lower volatility... so we why don't we call this one flat for the month.

The plain vanilla median actually declined for both property types, but this was after a big rise in March.



The increase in the median price per square foot over the past few months makes for a slight tick up in the Case-Shiller proxy (this is mostly due to the big January decline falling out of the calculation):



Here are the price per square foot and CS proxy graphs aligned with calendar years:





Sales were down slightly from the prior month and up ever so slightly from a year ago:



Pendings were also down, and are right atop last year's levels:



Inventory continued its slow rise:



Months of inventory increased slightly, but at 4.9 months it was still near enough to a level that is conducive to price increases (or at least an absence of price declines):



Despite the gloomy headlines out there about the housing market (many of them based on lagging indicators), it appears that the San Diego market is hanging in there thus far in the spring season.

(category: )

Submitted by sdduuuude on May 12, 2011 - 8:54am.

Hanging in there but doesn't look very Spring Bounce-ish.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 12, 2011 - 9:22am.

I think what we are seeing is just noise in a pretty stable market for the last couple years. The inventory selling each month is different (we arent selling widgets out here) and some people negotiate better than others. It's played and IMO will continue playing out exactly as I expected. A little up and a little down on the stats but otherwise a normal balanced market. The key in this market is educating oneself and having top notch representation to get you a good to great deal in the current market. Anyone expecting big declines (or increases for that matter) is in for disaapointment.

Submitted by ocrenter on May 13, 2011 - 11:25am.

sdrealtor wrote:
I think what we are seeing is just noise in a pretty stable market for the last couple years. The inventory selling each month is different (we arent selling widgets out here) and some people negotiate better than others. It's played and IMO will continue playing out exactly as I expected. A little up and a little down on the stats but otherwise a normal balanced market. The key in this market is educating oneself and having top notch representation to get you a good to great deal in the current market. Anyone expecting big declines (or increases for that matter) is in for disaapointment.

agree. a buyer really need to be extremely well educated about the market and sub-market.

take these two examples.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-110019491-70...

vs

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100059548-73...

these two homes, the bigger one was sold at the peak for $1.14 million. the smaller one sold at the peak for $1.18 million. So we know intrinsically the smaller one is at a better location.

but the smaller one just sold for over its 2006 price at $1.3 million. in the mean time, the bigger home just sold for $870k.

maybe someone familiar with the local variations such as sdrealtor can clue me in on why the smaller home may be worth more than $400k compared to the larger home. But the bottom line here is at the peak, the price difference between these two homes was $40k. Now the difference is $430k. What gives?

but this type of weird sale price difference in what appear to be similar homes is what is happening over and over again. demonstrating that knowledge and proper representation is key.

Submitted by desmond on May 15, 2011 - 9:17am.

All that "knowledge" just gets thrown out the window when the guy next door buys at the "idiot" price. btw, SDR why not just have a streaming banner with your phone number on it after a post like yours.

Submitted by ocrenter on May 16, 2011 - 7:22am.

desmond wrote:
All that "knowledge" just gets thrown out the window when the guy next door buys at the "idiot" price. btw, SDR why not just have a streaming banner with your phone number on it after a post like yours.

if sdr can actually steer folks away from making idiotic purchases, I say fly that banner.

but bottom line, as long as there are idiots, there will be folks buying at "idiot" prices. the key is do your own research so you don't end up on the wrong end of the "idiot" line. if you are not willing to do your own research, proper representation is key.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 16, 2011 - 11:07am.

Thx ocr and I think both are key. As for flying a banner, I have a pretty clear record of not soliciting people on this site. There are lots of good agents out there and I encourage people to find one. I have actually had posters contact me with the names of agents they were thinking of using to research those agents and give my opinion.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 16, 2011 - 11:24am.

ocr
Regarding your two comps they are apples and oranges. The bigger one is in LC Oaks, its foreclosure flip. The house was very strangely upgraded. It could have sold for a bit more if it was done better perhaps 50 to 100K more.

The smaller one is in gated LC Ridge and is on a prime ocean view lot. It has huge ocean views and these homes all sold immediately with a long line of buyers wanting them. They are coveted. I beleive it has a 1st floor master so it lives like a one story. An older, wealthy buyer looking for a 1 story ocean view home in a safe gated neighborhood probably bought it. That is not an easy thing to find. For comparison, 7131 Corinita down the street with no view but similar size as Circulo Papayo sold for $859K.

Sorry but it was a bad example to compare but a good example of what local knowledge means.

Submitted by ocrenter on May 16, 2011 - 12:19pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
ocr
For comparison, 7131 Corinita down the street with no view but similar size as Circulo Papayo sold for $859K.

Sorry but it was a bad example to compare but a good example of what local knowledge means.

sdr, that's still a 440k difference. just for view and single story premium?

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 16, 2011 - 5:08pm.

ocr, two thoughts on that. Shea was first out of the gate in LC Oaks and prices rose a fair amount between then and when LC Ridge was built.

And yes there is a HUUUGGGEEE premium for a large 1 story with a killer oceanview. Put it in a gated community and its even bigger. Try to find another 3,000+ sq ft 1 story with a killer ocean view in a gated community anywhere along the coast.

Submitted by urbanrealtor on May 16, 2011 - 5:40pm.

desmond wrote:
All that "knowledge" just gets thrown out the window when the guy next door buys at the "idiot" price. btw, SDR why not just have a streaming banner with your phone number on it after a post like yours.

Desmond, that was a weak post.
sdr does not generally solicit on this site and generally makes pretty astute observations.
There are agents who do solicit on this site but sdr is not one of them.

Submitted by desmond on May 16, 2011 - 6:42pm.

I tried to be as weak as possible, I did not want anybody to start crying.

Submitted by ocrenter on May 17, 2011 - 7:42am.

sdrealtor wrote:
ocr, two thoughts on that. Shea was first out of the gate in LC Oaks and prices rose a fair amount between then and when LC Ridge was built.

And yes there is a HUUUGGGEEE premium for a large 1 story with a killer oceanview. Put it in a gated community and its even bigger. Try to find another 3,000+ sq ft 1 story with a killer ocean view in a gated community anywhere along the coast.

there may be a premium, but it isn't a good buy.

here's why:
#1: the purchase price was $120k over peak pricing. let's assume upgrades were $200k, that's only $80k less than peak pricing.
#2: the property is as coastal as Rancho Carillo, Bressi is actually more coastal. It is 5 miles off coast, within SMUSD. with the way the house sits, it isn't even direct ocean view, rather it is ocean view off to the left.
#3: we all know at peak, intrinsic differences between homes cause price difference to expand, but at bottom, that price difference should shrink. it is the slinky effect. in this case, the less desirable has dropped dramatically but the more desirable has not dropped at all.
#4: if you do end up buying at peak pricing, even assuming premium location and view, there is no room to go in regard to appreciation. this is what we call "low upside opportunity, high downside risk."

THIS IS TRUE KILLER VIEW:

oceanviewoceanview

2.5 miles from the ocean, at similar sqft and lot size, this one is going for $965k. http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-110011130-92008

of course, you will say this is a 2 story and not a 1 story. but the point is for 7066 Corintia, the view and location did not justify the price difference of $450k. View and location is at best $100-150k. So now we are at this issue: does the single story status justify $300k difference in price? no, I've seen at best $100k difference between 1 vs 2 story homes of similar size.

So are we to say $100k + $150k = $450k?

Submitted by urbanrealtor on May 17, 2011 - 9:19am.

desmond wrote:
I tried to be as weak as possible, I did not want anybody to start crying.

To quote the dear leader, mission accomplished.

Nobody cried and it was weak.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 17, 2011 - 4:41pm.

ocr
I see what you are trying to do and it just doesnt work that way. Supply and demand. Find me a 3,000+ sq ft nearly new 1 story in gated community with a killer oceanview. I've been up there and it is killer.

Check out 3225 Sitio Montecillo another big 1 story up there just went pending in under 2 weeks with asking price of $1.374M. Ooops they did it again.

Submitted by ltokuda on May 19, 2011 - 2:23am.

ocrenter wrote:

agree. a buyer really need to be extremely well educated about the market and sub-market.

take these two examples.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-110019491-70...

vs

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100059548-73...

these two homes, the bigger one was sold at the peak for $1.14 million. the smaller one sold at the peak for $1.18 million. So we know intrinsically the smaller one is at a better location.

but the smaller one just sold for over its 2006 price at $1.3 million. in the mean time, the bigger home just sold for $870k.

maybe someone familiar with the local variations such as sdrealtor can clue me in on why the smaller home may be worth more than $400k compared to the larger home. But the bottom line here is at the peak, the price difference between these two homes was $40k. Now the difference is $430k. What gives?

but this type of weird sale price difference in what appear to be similar homes is what is happening over and over again. demonstrating that knowledge and proper representation is key.

For new homes (especially new developments), I've seen cases where the purchase price was set far in advance of the house being constructed. That happened to a high end community near me. The purchase price was set in 2005 but due to delays, the homes weren't built until 2006. So by the time the homes were actually purchased and landscaping was put in, the market value of the home was much greater than the price paid. I think a couple of people manage to flip their houses for a pretty good profit (about 25% in half a year). Not sure if this is the case with the small house in your link but that may be a possibility.

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