Tesla Model 3

User Forum Topic
Submitted by Escoguy on April 4, 2016 - 10:12am

A few thoughts on the Tesla Model 3. With a 200+ mile range, anyone who has a very long commute will become immune to fuel costs. This may make it easier to commute to places like San Diego from Temecula cost effectively.

So the effect may be that home buyers in more distant locations will be less vulnerable if fuel prices rise in the futures. So EVs (electric vehicles) may end up making the housing market more stable over the long term by removing one of the variables which could impact long term affordability.

Another side affect, as EVs have zero emissions and are quieter, prices around freeways may eventually rise as the spillover effects of cars is lessened. It may take more than a decade to see the full impact.

But in general we should all welcome having cleaner air.

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 4, 2016 - 10:26am.

It looks like it will be just $35K, which is less than half of the current lower-end Tesla. Perhaps it WILL appeal to the worker-bee commuter set, who will just have to plug it in every night instead of gas up. I can't see the Temecula crowd (esp those with minor children to raise) paying $70K and up for a "work vehicle" as are the current Teslas. The sole reason they're living in Temecula in the first place (instead of SD, where they work) is the lower cost of housing it affords.

The truth is, most of this massive group of commuting worker-bees CAN/COULD afford SD County ... yes, even a 3+ bdrm home. They're just in older suburban areas of SD County and this group wants an even bigger, newer home for the same (or less) money. Hence the tremendous sacrifice they're making with their time on weekdays. This kind of life wouldn't appeal to me (esp if I had young kids at home) but different strokes for different folks.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on April 4, 2016 - 10:38am.

Suburbs start out as bedroom communities then change to job centers.

They are not static.

Submitted by spdrun on April 4, 2016 - 11:22am.

(1) Can the spyware that constantly phones location home to the filth at Tesla be disabled? Not everyone gives a flying rat's ass about improving their future self-driving abilities or theft protection (vs privacy).
(2) Is it DIY friendly, or will Tesla continue to restrict supply of parts?
(3) Roadster 2.0, please, already.
(4) I'm not sure if US fuel prices are a big factor in commuting to/from outlying exurban pestholes anyway. Assuming a car that gets 30 mpg, we're talking about a $8/day difference over a 60 mile (each way) commute over a $2.00/gal difference in fuel price. I feel like this is nearly insignificant for the kind of people who supercommute (generally not min-wage workers).

I feel like travel time, home prices, property configurations, and the availability of services/activities (schools, nightlife, beaches, mountains etc, depending on what floats ya boat) are the deciding factors.

But the interesting question is: if, hypothetically, self-driving electric cars make sprawl more desirable, will they have a FLATTENING effect on home prices throughout a region? Home prices in the exurbs might be supported, but if people no longer are restricted to living in a downtown or near a downtown, will downtowns become less desirable. As in, Robert Moses' wet dream finally coming (hah!) true.

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 4, 2016 - 12:02pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Suburbs start out as bedroom communities then change to job centers.

They are not static.

Umm ... except Temecula and surrounds are actually considered exurban, NOT suburban. There is a big, hu-u-u-uge difference!

For example, Diamond Bar, Chino Hills and Brea (representing 3 more conveniently-located neighboring counties to RIV) are actually suburban cities which are far more desirable to live in for a "worker bee" with a young family at home than the exurban IE .... located several more cities outward.

Submitted by spdrun on April 4, 2016 - 12:35pm.

Does Tesla still do things like this...?

http://gas2.org/2014/09/27/tesla-wont-ac...
http://cafeelectric.com/stretchla/

If I got an email like this, it would provoke murderous rage in me:

“Due to the salvage status of your Model S , I have been instructed to cease providing you with parts. Tesla is very concerned about vehicles with salvaged titles being improperly repaired. Going forward, all salvaged vehicles must be inspected by us or our approved body shop, Precision Auto Body. If declared a candidate for proper repair, reconstruction must be completed by a Tesla-Certified Body Shop.”

Submitted by The-Shoveler on April 4, 2016 - 1:30pm.

bearishgurl wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:
Suburbs start out as bedroom communities then change to job centers.

They are not static.

Umm ... except Temecula and surrounds are actually considered exurban, NOT suburban. There is a big, hu-u-u-uge difference!

For example, Diamond Bar, Chino Hills and Brea (representing 3 more conveniently-located neighboring counties to RIV) are actually suburban cities which are far more desirable to live in for a "worker bee" with a young family at home than the exurban IE .... located several more cities outward.

LOL, Temecula is growing into a big city fast.

Anyway I am done on this subject.

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 4, 2016 - 1:31pm.

spdrun wrote:
Does Tesla still do things like this...?

http://gas2.org/2014/09/27/tesla-wont-ac...
http://cafeelectric.com/stretchla/

If I got an email like this, it would provoke murderous rage in me:

“Due to the salvage status of your Model S , I have been instructed to cease providing you with parts. Tesla is very concerned about vehicles with salvaged titles being improperly repaired. Going forward, all salvaged vehicles must be inspected by us or our approved body shop, Precision Auto Body. If declared a candidate for proper repair, reconstruction must be completed by a Tesla-Certified Body Shop.”

This is absolutely ridiculous. In my mind, a vehicle is not worth owning if the owner is limited as to where they can have it repaired or even buy parts for it.

I have never had any vehicle I own repaired at a "dealership." And I've bought "aftermarket" parts and even shopped at or ordered parts from wrecking yards all my life. And I've owned two vehicles which had "salvaged titles" (which I bought for a song), both of which I fixed up slightly and drove for several years. They were perfectly decent vehicles. It doesn't take much damage for an insurance company to "salvage" a vehicle :=0

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 4, 2016 - 2:42pm.

shoveler, "exurban" has nothing to do with size and everything to do with location.

Submitted by mixxalot on April 4, 2016 - 3:45pm.

I know a guy who commutes daily from Dana Point to San Diego for work! Now that is pure insanity!

Submitted by AN on April 4, 2016 - 4:01pm.

bearishgurl wrote:
shoveler, "exurban" has nothing to do with size and everything to do with location.
What characteristic of a particular location would make a city an exurban vs urban?

Submitted by The-Shoveler on April 4, 2016 - 4:27pm.

mixxalot wrote:
I know a guy who commutes daily from Dana Point to San Diego for work! Now that is pure insanity!

I imagine this is the same type of thing that happens to almost everyone in L.A. (although in this case a little more extreme maybe).

You starting out buying a home 15 minutes from work, then you get laid off and your next gig is 40-60 miles away.

I could see someone who got laid off from QCOM getting a Job in Irvine etc...

To top it off our spouse still works Local LOL. (I have seen it happen many times).

Submitted by The-Shoveler on April 4, 2016 - 4:11pm.

AN wrote:
bearishgurl wrote:
shoveler, "exurban" has nothing to do with size and everything to do with location.
What characteristic of a particular location would make a city an exurban vs urban?

If your working in Carlsbad is it still an exurb?

when an exurb starts having it's own suburbs is it still a exurb?

Submitted by AN on April 4, 2016 - 10:02pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
AN wrote:
bearishgurl wrote:
shoveler, "exurban" has nothing to do with size and everything to do with location.
What characteristic of a particular location would make a city an exurban vs urban?

If your working in Carlsbad is it still an exurb?

when an exurb starts having it's own suburbs is it still a exurb?

Is Fresno urban/suburb/or exurb? How about Clovis, Santa Barbara, Santa Maria, Bakersfield? This is why I ask her what is her location parameter to make a city an urban/suburb/exurb. Because it's not clear what they are.

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 4, 2016 - 11:01pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
AN wrote:
bearishgurl wrote:
shoveler, "exurban" has nothing to do with size and everything to do with location.
What characteristic of a particular location would make a city an exurban vs urban?

If your working in Carlsbad is it still an exurb?

Yes.

The-Shoveler wrote:
when an exurb starts having it's own suburbs is it still a exurb?
Yes. The surrounding cities are also exurbs. They are not suburbs of the older exurb.

Submitted by AN on April 4, 2016 - 11:04pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
mixxalot wrote:
I know a guy who commutes daily from Dana Point to San Diego for work! Now that is pure insanity!

I imagine this is the same type of thing that happens to almost everyone in L.A. (although in this case a little more extreme maybe).

You starting out buying a home 15 minutes from work, then you get laid off and your next gig is 40-60 miles away.

I could see someone who got laid off from QCOM getting a Job in Irvine etc...

To top it off our spouse still works Local LOL. (I have seen it happen many times).

This is why LA is a big giant clusterf*ck and I wouldn't want to live there. People like BG is trying to make SD into the next LA. But I'm glad SD's city leader actually have good urban planner in place. Which is why most of the jobs are in UTC/Sorrento Valley area. With a smaller subset in Carlsbad, Rancho Bernardo, Downtown. It's much easier to build public transit when you only have a handful of places people need to go to during working days. I get exciting seeing new high rises popping up in UTC/Sorrento Valley area.

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 4, 2016 - 11:08pm.

AN wrote:
Is Fresno urban/suburb/or exurb? How about Clovis, Santa Barbara, Santa Maria, Bakersfield? This is why I ask her what is her location parameter to make a city an urban/suburb/exurb. Because it's not clear what they are.
Fresno is a city and county in its own right. Clovis is one of its "suburbs." Santa Barbara is a city and county in its own right. Even though they are both in the same county, Santa Maria is NOT an exurb of Santa Barbara because there is too much open space between the two cities. It is a city in its own right. Compare San Diego to Julian (there really isn't a comparison in SD County because the topography is so different and Julian is so small.) Perhaps SD to Valley Center. Bakersfield is a city in its own right and the county seat of Kern County. It stands alone.

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 4, 2016 - 11:20pm.

Temecula is in Riverside County and is an exurb of Riverside, the county seat. It is 40+ miles from major job centers in Riverside (its own county), 40-60 miles from SD County job centers, 35-55 miles from Orange County job centers, 40-65 miles from LA County job centers and 50+ miles to San Bernardino County (not sure if any major "job centers" exist in SanBern Co).

It would be considered beyond an outer ring exurb as FIH described Houston, TX today on the "Code Compliance" thread. Hence, it's lower prices for housing (offset by MR, of course). I'm not saying that Temecula has an inferior lifestyle. I'm just saying that you pay for what you get in this life. For worker bees who need to make living wages, it can be a huge sacrifice of time, gas and vehicle wear and tear to live in that region of the IE and thus it is not for everyone because time with your family is something you can never get back.

Submitted by AN on April 4, 2016 - 11:22pm.

bearishgurl wrote:
Fresno is a city and county in its own right. Clovis is one of its "suburbs." Santa Barbara is a city and county in its own right. Even though they are both in the same county, Santa Maria is NOT an exurb of Santa Barbara because there is too much open space between the two cities. It is a city in its own right. Compare San Diego to Julian (there really isn't a comparison in SD County because the topography is so different and Julian is so small.) Perhaps SD to Valley Center. Bakersfield is a city in its own right and the county seat of Kern County. It stands alone.
So, what is your criteria that make a city a city vs a city that's an exurb? I still don't see any clue in your answer to solidify your criteria.

Especially since you say it has to do to location and not population or jobs. Why is Temecula an exurb while Santa Maria is not?

Submitted by AN on April 4, 2016 - 11:28pm.

bearishgurl wrote:
Temecula is in Riverside County and is an exurb of Riverside, the county seat. It is 40+ miles from major job centers in Riverside (its own county), 40-60 miles from SD County job centers, 35-55 miles from Orange County job centers, 40-65 miles from LA County job centers and 50+ miles to San Bernardino County (not sure if any major "job centers" exist in SanBern Co).
By that logic, wouldn't Bakerfield and exurb too? Since it doesn't really have a job center. Temecula actually have more major corporations than Bakersfield, all the while, having 1/3 of the population.

Submitted by AN on April 4, 2016 - 11:39pm.

Back to the Model 3, I don't understand why you would say the owner of a Model 3 would be immune to fuel costs. Have you checked your SDG&E bill lately? If you don't have solar, I wouldn't say you're immune to fuel costs.

I would say autonomous cars would affect the commute more than an EV. With autonomous car, you can actually work while you're "commuting". Then, essentially, you're no longer "commuting", since you can start working as soon as you get into the car.

As for road noise, I think tire noise is much louder than the noise the engine make at ~2k RPM driving down the freeway. So, I don't think EV would make that big of a difference.

You also have to keep in mind that EV today is only viable for a small group of people. It's not suitable for 18-wheelers, worker trucks, poor people, people who live in older areas in a condo/apartment, etc. I think EV has a long long way to go to be suitable to replace majority of vehicles on the road. Unless there's a breakthrough that would drastically decrease the cost of producing batteries and drastically increase the density of the battery and drastically reduce the charge time of the battery (20-30 min down to 2-3 minutes).

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 5, 2016 - 12:00am.

AN wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:
mixxalot wrote:
I know a guy who commutes daily from Dana Point to San Diego for work! Now that is pure insanity!

I imagine this is the same type of thing that happens to almost everyone in L.A. (although in this case a little more extreme maybe).

You starting out buying a home 15 minutes from work, then you get laid off and your next gig is 40-60 miles away.

I could see someone who got laid off from QCOM getting a Job in Irvine etc...

To top it off our spouse still works Local LOL. (I have seen it happen many times).

This is why LA is a big giant clusterf*ck and I wouldn't want to live there. People like BG is trying to make SD into the next LA. But I'm glad SD's city leader actually have good urban planner in place. Which is why most of the jobs are in UTC/Sorrento Valley area. With a smaller subset in Carlsbad, Rancho Bernardo, Downtown. It's much easier to build public transit when you only have a handful of places people need to go to during working days. I get exciting seeing new high rises popping up in UTC/Sorrento Valley area.
How am I trying to make SD into the next LA? It can never be LA. Save for some of its crowded beach areas (ex: Santa Monica, Venice), LA County was planned a helluva lot better than SD County was. That massive tangle of freeways in LA County which frustrate you the most are used by SIX COUNTIES of semi-local worker bees every weekday! I-10 in Vernon (~5-8 mi east of dtn LA) is also the END of a MAJOR coast-to-coast long-haul trucking route (busiest in the nation), further clogging the interstate east of LA. LA County's freeway congestion is not entirely (or even half) the fault of its own residents or leadership!

We don't have that big of a problem here in SD as we only have ONE COUNTY here with a few scattered work centers and a few (150-200K?) commuters into/out of SD County every day from southern RIV Co and southern OC. Even so, SD County's freeways can still be congested because it is grossly OVERBUILT and so is southern RIV County (with few to zero "job centers" forcing nearly ALL of its worker-bee residents to commute out-of county to their jobs). That is NOT the case with LA county and Ventura County, and, to a lesser extent, Orange County. Those three counties are, for the most part, self contained, have ample jobs for their residents and NOT overbuilt. Not only were these counties "out of room" long before SD County was, their wiser leadership did not permit subdivisions on every single strip of land which "appeared" buildable as SD County and its cities did. Our neighboring counties to the north preserved their open space ... as they should have. Ventura County appears to (stupidly) still be issuing subdivision permits in Porter Ranch but that is grossly inferior land. Its soil is toxic, the (permanent) damage from its former uses was never properly mitigated and it should have never been allowed to be built on. It's an environmental disaster!

https://www.laprogressive.com/the-porter...

When residential developers have to resort to building on toxic waste sites in SoCal, it is wa-a-a-y past time for them to pack up and leave the state.

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 5, 2016 - 12:05am.

AN wrote:
bearishgurl wrote:
Temecula is in Riverside County and is an exurb of Riverside, the county seat. It is 40+ miles from major job centers in Riverside (its own county), 40-60 miles from SD County job centers, 35-55 miles from Orange County job centers, 40-65 miles from LA County job centers and 50+ miles to San Bernardino County (not sure if any major "job centers" exist in SanBern Co).
By that logic, wouldn't Bakerfield and exurb too? Since it doesn't really have a job center. Temecula actually have more major corporations than Bakersfield, all the while, having 1/3 of the population.
Bakersfield doesn't need a "job center" but does have many teaching, govm't jobs and medical jobs. Like Fresno, it is primarily an agricultural hub. People who are highly trained in high tech jobs, for example, wouldn't have any reason to move to Bakersfield.

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 5, 2016 - 12:21am.

AN wrote:
Back to the Model 3, I don't understand why you would say the owner of a Model 3 would be immune to fuel costs. Have you checked your SDG&E bill lately? If you don't have solar, I wouldn't say you're immune to fuel costs.

I would say autonomous cars would affect the commute more than an EV. With autonomous car, you can actually work while you're "commuting". Then, essentially, you're no longer "commuting", since you can start working as soon as you get into the car.

As for road noise, I think tire noise is much louder than the noise the engine make at ~2k RPM driving down the freeway. So, I don't think EV would make that big of a difference.

You also have to keep in mind that EV today is only viable for a small group of people. It's not suitable for 18-wheelers, worker trucks, poor people, people who live in older areas in a condo/apartment, etc. I think EV has a long long way to go to be suitable to replace majority of vehicles on the road. Unless there's a breakthrough that would drastically decrease the cost of producing batteries and drastically increase the density of the battery and drastically reduce the charge time of the battery (20-30 min down to 2-3 minutes).

All good points, AN. It's not suitable for me, either. When on a road trip, I need to go at least 300 miles before getting gas again. And I might be "fueling up" at a truck stop in Podunk BF Egypt. I doubt there would be any place around there to plug my car in for 30-45 minutes while I waste time off the road chatting with truckers in the TV lounge :=0

Submitted by svelte on April 5, 2016 - 6:27am.

AN wrote:

You also have to keep in mind that EV today is only viable for a small group of people. It's not suitable for 18-wheelers, worker trucks, poor people, people who live in older areas in a condo/apartment, etc. I think EV has a long long way to go to be suitable to replace majority of vehicles on the road. Unless there's a breakthrough that would drastically decrease the cost of producing batteries and drastically increase the density of the battery and drastically reduce the charge time of the battery (20-30 min down to 2-3 minutes).

One more thing: EVs lose as much as 60% of their range in colder, northern climates. That is very significant.

Agree that autonomous vehicles would do more to promote long commutes than fuel costs, but spending lots of time in a car - whether I'm driving or not - getting to work is not appealing to me. So electric, autonomous, no matter, I'm still keeping my commute short. As will most people, I bet. I've got better things to do with my time.

Submitted by AN on April 5, 2016 - 8:55am.

bearishgurl wrote:
How am I trying to make SD into the next LA? It can never be LA. Save for some of its crowded beach areas (ex: Santa Monica, Venice), LA County was planned a helluva lot better than SD County was.
There's no point in debating this topic if you think this is the case. IMHO, LA is the worse planned county. SD County is drastically better planned. Your desire in term of growth will make SD into LA in 100 years.

Submitted by AN on April 5, 2016 - 8:57am.

bearishgurl wrote:
Bakersfield doesn't need a "job center" but does have many teaching, govm't jobs and medical jobs. Like Fresno, it is primarily an agricultural hub. People who are highly trained in high tech jobs, for example, wouldn't have any reason to move to Bakersfield.

But your reason as to why Temecula is an exurb is its distance to job centers. Temecula have all the jobs you listed for Bakersfield and Fresno.

Submitted by AN on April 5, 2016 - 8:58am.

svelte wrote:
One more thing: EVs lose as much as 60% of their range in colder, northern climates. That is very significant.

Agree that autonomous vehicles would do more to promote long commutes than fuel costs, but spending lots of time in a car - whether I'm driving or not - getting to work is not appealing to me. So electric, autonomous, no matter, I'm still keeping my commute short. As will most people, I bet. I've got better things to do with my time.

Agree, it's not for me either. But I know a lot of people are OK w/ that.

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 5, 2016 - 11:11am.

AN wrote:
bearishgurl wrote:
Bakersfield doesn't need a "job center" but does have many teaching, govm't jobs and medical jobs. Like Fresno, it is primarily an agricultural hub. People who are highly trained in high tech jobs, for example, wouldn't have any reason to move to Bakersfield.

But your reason as to why Temecula is an exurb is its distance to job centers. Temecula have all the jobs you listed for Bakersfield and Fresno.
Yes it does (to a lesser degree because it is not a "county seat" like Bakersfield). And it doesn't have its own CSU. But ..... there seems to be a LOT of tech and biotech workers who have moved out to TV with no hope of a good job within 35-45 miles of their homes. That's sheer folly in my mind. It's crazymaking because in most cases (primarily in SoCal) they could buy a (likely, smaller, older) home MUCH closer to work (w/no HOA/MR) for the same amount of money (or even less with all costs considered). Possibly even <10 miles away. But they choose not to.

For example, Santee is only 12-18 miles from several major SD job centers and has many homes which are 25+ years old with no HOA/MR (which could easily total an additional $150 to $750 month in housing expenses over and above PITI).

Scattered govm't installations, police/fire stations, schools, universities and medical facilities found in every county in CA (urban to rural) aren't "job centers." Their jobs are needed to serve the population of that county or region. Many smaller cities in CA (even with <20K pop) have ALL of these types of jobs.

High tech and biotech workers (who typically work in "job centers" which have these types of companies) don't move to Bakersfield or Fresno because they have no reason to. They're not the types of cities that attract these workers because the counties they are situated in are self-contained and somewhat isolated unto themselves. For example, at 3+ hrs one way, we aren't going to see too many daily morning commuters from Fresno to Oakland :=0

Submitted by The-Shoveler on April 5, 2016 - 11:54am.

Temecula actually already has some failrly large BioTech firms.

Also CSUSM does have an extension in Temecula.

Where Talent moves start-ups happen.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on April 5, 2016 - 12:06pm.

bearishgurl wrote:
Bakersfield doesn't need a "job center" but does have many teaching, govm't jobs and medical jobs. Like Fresno, it is primarily an agricultural hub. People who are highly trained in high tech jobs, for example, wouldn't have any reason to move to Bakersfield.

Bakersfield is a good long term investment IMO. High speed rail, cal state, medical and oil industry, and land for suburban development, etc... Build it and they will come.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.