OT: North Korea danger

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Submitted by spdrun on August 30, 2017 - 11:12am

What are the chances of the following scenario?

(1) North Korea launches a test missile or five.
(2) One or more end up off course towards Russia
(3) Russia shoots their wad in North Korea's direction
(4) The Chinese think that the launch is intended at them, launch at Russia
(5) US sees missiles flying around, jumps into the game
(6) The only way to win is not to play

Scary s**t, makes me want to move to Argentina.

Submitted by zk on August 30, 2017 - 12:01pm.

spdrun wrote:

Scary s**t, makes me want to move to Argentina.

Now when I hear "GOAL ARGENTINA!!!!" I'll hear "Goal: Agentina."

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 30, 2017 - 1:50pm.

North Korea is just testing Trump and crossing his redlines.
I'm willing to bet that China is telling North Korea to launch the missiles.
What is Trump doing? Nothing.

I don't see any danger at all other than the US having to acquiesce to North Korea having nuclear weapons and sending more defense to South Korea.

Read Graham Allison's book Thucydites' Trap. China is the rising power and it wants the established power to spend all its wealth on the military. Afghanistan, Iraq. Isis, terrorism, the wall... Trump surrounded by generals...

Submitted by spdrun on August 30, 2017 - 2:19pm.

It's all a game until someone (or some computer) misinterprets it as a real threat and the missiles start flying.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 30, 2017 - 3:55pm.

Spd, the scenario you described would be pretext for the US to attack preemptively.

We know that North Korea won't attack first. But they will respond to a US attack. We would have to send 1/2 million troops to the Korean Peninsula in case of war.

China is going for a freeze-for-freeze and that's the only way they will help negotiate. As Steve Bannon said, North Korea got us. Our options are rather limited. And Trump's bluster and redlines have limited the options even more.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on August 30, 2017 - 4:58pm.

Our position will just get worse (so will the whole worlds) the longer it goes on.
Don't kid yourself China is really in a much worse position than we are when it comes to Nk and they are not happy about it.

How do we deal with a NK with capable sub's?

There are no good options.

And no we can't stop playing (they will absolutely never stop no matter what we do)

The country that is being extorted the most is China.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 5, 2017 - 3:20pm.

So adding to the danger, Trump is decertifying Iran to show his base how badass he is.

Now, the Republican Congress will likely do nothing and uphold the deal creating a rift in the Republican Party. It will be fun to watch.

Or if Congress reimposes sanctions, we may see Iran with “nukular” weapons.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 9, 2017 - 7:46am.

I sense an upcoming war and recession. Make sure your finances allow you to withstand and prosper despite a recession. Make sure your kids don’t join the military.

Corker: Trump leading U.S. 'on the path to World War III'

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/09...

Submitted by spdrun on October 9, 2017 - 7:52am.

Trump is too much of a narcissist to want to perish in a nuclear holocaust.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 9, 2017 - 11:42am.

spdrun wrote:
Trump is too much of a narcissist to want to perish in a nuclear holocaust.

True. But do you sense a Trump induced recession coming?

Submitted by spdrun on October 9, 2017 - 12:33pm.

No, I sense another business cycle coming. We give Presidents too much credit or blame.

Submitted by SK in CV on October 9, 2017 - 1:24pm.

We are always in a business cycle.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on October 9, 2017 - 1:32pm.

I Think it is more about the demographic cycle.

The biggest bulge US population is 26 years old.

That should keep things humming IMO for a few more years (well in absence of WAR anyway).

They have not started evacuating S.Korea so I would not be worrying too much until that starts happening.

Submitted by spdrun on October 9, 2017 - 5:20pm.

Plenty of recessions worldwide have been combined with high youth unemployment.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 9, 2017 - 11:40pm.

spdrun, you said before that we are due for a recession. And plenty of people say that high govt spending, debt, etc, is not sustainable, blah blah.. people even said 2009 stimulus after recession would lead to much worse. I wanna know when.

Shoveler, I agree with you with regard to demographics. People are moving to large metros and developers are not building basic apartments. They concentrate on luxury apartments that bring higher rents.

I just bought another urban condo for a little double what it would have been at the bottom of the market. But I can still get good returns. Anyway, I don't think we'll get a bad recession in the next couple years. But business cycle wise, we are due for a recession. And with a moron in the White House......

Submitted by spdrun on October 10, 2017 - 9:55am.

Even a moron is useful some of the time...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 10, 2017 - 10:29am.

We are now into 9 years of uninterrupted growth. Say we have another 4 years. Would that be a new normal?

Submitted by spdrun on October 10, 2017 - 10:40am.

And vindicate Trump's anti-progress ideas? No thanks.

Growth till 2020 will virtually guarantee his (or a hand picked stooge's) election.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on October 10, 2017 - 4:19pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
We are now into 9 years of uninterrupted growth. Say we have another 4 years. Would that be a new normal?

What is Normal about anything?

The way things are right now if there were a downturn I think it could lead to political instability and social unrest.

Still need a lot of lifting from the bottom.

Submitted by spdrun on October 10, 2017 - 4:31pm.

Our problem is not enough of either. If politicians feared marches in the street, barricades, and cities being shut down whenever they cut government services in favor of more militarism or in favor of more incarceration, maybe they'd be slightly more mindful.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 10, 2017 - 6:02pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
FlyerInHi wrote:
We are now into 9 years of uninterrupted growth. Say we have another 4 years. Would that be a new normal?

What is Normal about anything?

The way things are right now if there were a downturn I think it could lead to political instability and social unrest.

Still need a lot of lifting from the bottom.

Shoveler, I meant normal business cycle.
People look to the past to predict the future and I think that’s a mistake.

you think there a lot is lifting to be done. I think the same because of worldwide excess capacity. But many free market advocates don’t agree.

What’s a normal cycle?

Submitted by spdrun on October 10, 2017 - 6:16pm.

People always say "it's different this time..."

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 10, 2017 - 6:25pm.

spdrun wrote:
People always say "it's different this time..."

Well, is was with the housing led recession of 2008. Normally, it’s an employment led recession.

Submitted by spdrun on October 10, 2017 - 6:47pm.

Or did an economic down-cycle trigger the bursting of a housing bubble?

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 10, 2017 - 7:37pm.

spdrun wrote:
Or did an economic down-cycle trigger the bursting of a housing bubble?

No, job losses did not precipitate housing crisis. The job losses occurred after banking crisis. So it was not normal business cycle.

Submitted by carlsbadworker on October 10, 2017 - 10:55pm.

spdrun wrote:
Plenty of recessions worldwide have been combined with high youth unemployment.

The way I see it, there is no good outcome in the medium run: either the population growth continues and we have more people than the planet could sustain it; or we have an aging population and the world's youth cannot support the increasing amount of global debt:
global debtglobal debt

And while technology is helpful in the long run, it has detrimental effects in the short run because the world now needs less capital and less man power to produce. The first helps to create asset bubbles as money can't find its productive use. The seconds helps to increase social unrest, as many people can't find productive use of their time.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on October 11, 2017 - 8:25am.

As long as sufficient food and goods can be produced.
The Debt is just an artificial construct that can be resolved any number of ways.

Submitted by harvey on October 11, 2017 - 8:27am.

Tax cuts will fix everything.

Submitted by spdrun on October 11, 2017 - 9:25am.

Everything is an artificial construct, but some artificial constructs have real-world consequences.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 11, 2017 - 1:10pm.

spdrun wrote:
Everything is an artificial construct, but some artificial constructs have real-world consequences.

Only if, we humans let them. Plus intellectual concepts, or even legal contracts are not the same as physical capabilities and realities.

Why can't we come up with things like social credits or other forms of exchange? Engineers and scientists can develop new ways of arranging our lives.

BTW our political leaders are lawyers who enforce contracts. Many of China's leaders are engineers and scientists.

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