New construction at record low, nominal prices hit new high

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on June 22, 2017 - 10:05am.

These articles don't take into account the shadow construction going on.

Submitted by gzz on June 22, 2017 - 11:01am.

What is that? Unpermitted garage conversations?

Looks like the biggest new construction development is Otay Ranch, which is a great location for commuting to Tecate, Mexico.

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on June 22, 2017 - 12:21pm.

gzz wrote:
What is that? Unpermitted garage conversations?

Looks like the biggest new construction development is Otay Ranch, which is a great location for commuting to Tecate, Mexico.

Sorry should have been more explicit... I should have written as follows:

.sarcasm ON. These articles don't take into account the shadow construction going on. .sarcasm-OFF.

Submitted by SK in CV on June 22, 2017 - 7:39pm.

FormerSanDiegan wrote:
These articles don't take into account the shadow construction going on.

LOL!

Submitted by NotCranky on June 26, 2017 - 3:22pm.

I heard on the the radio that the City of San Diego is trying to organize looser regulations on building granny flats in urban back yards. Removing parking space requirements was part of it. There was also talk of lowering permit and processing fees, water meter fees, and maybe some other things I don't recall.

Submitted by gzz on June 27, 2017 - 9:13am.

There is now a pro-granny-flat state law, a green building density bonus, a low income density bonus, and plans by the city council to reduce regs that will take 3-5 years if it ever passes.

None of these will even come close to making up for the fact that there is no longer any large tracts of developable land unless you go way up to Vista/Valley Center or down to Otay.

The number of single family houses in San Diego and inner suburbs will only decline even as our population and economy grows.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 27, 2017 - 10:35am.

I think SD will follow LA where most New Development and business/Jobs were moved to the outer burbs over the last 30 years.

There are actually very few businesses/Jobs downtown.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 27, 2017 - 11:37am.

It's SB1069 to allow people to build more granny flats. San Diego is updating the local regs to comply. But it is not enough. The inventory won't appear overnight

http://sd10.senate.ca.gov/news/2016-09-2...

I don't see how single family inventory will decrease unless we upzone lots to multi family.

For a big city to have flat sprawl is so ridiculous. We need mega development and public transport to match. shopping malls should be allowed to build highrise towers above the stores.

Submitted by bewildering on June 27, 2017 - 12:24pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:

For a big city to have flat sprawl is so ridiculous. We need mega development and public transport to match. shopping malls should be allowed to build highrise towers above the stores.

No one wants to use public transportation. Take Bay Park. They are proposing building 90-foot apartment/condo complexes near the new trolley stops in South Bay Park/Linda Vista (where Jeromes is located). The majority of people will not use the trolley. They will instead use their cars on Morena Blvd, the 5 and the 8, and add to the congestion.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 27, 2017 - 1:40pm.

Because public transport is slow and inneficient and cannot improve until we have density. It's a chicken and egg issue. But the longer we delay, the more we will fall behind economically relative to other countries. Just wait another 50 years and see what I mean.

In the meantime, enjoy your nimbism and your gardenstyle urbanism.

Submitted by bewildering on June 27, 2017 - 3:18pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
Because public transport is slow and inneficient and cannot improve until we have density. It's a chicken and egg issue. But the longer we delay, the more we will fall behind economically relative to other countries. Just wait another 50 years and see what I mean.

In the meantime, enjoy your nimbism and your gardenstyle urbanism.

I lived in England. There is plenty of density and public transport is still slow, inefficient and expensive. I have never experienced the 'good' public transportation that people talk about. Not in the USA, not in the UK, not in Ireland, not in Australia. What is your example of great public transportation? All I see is people having to use public transportation and suffering.

Submitted by gzz on June 27, 2017 - 3:23pm.

If someone buys a condo accross the street from the trolley, they probably intend to ride it. It might be mostly UCSD people since the area is cheaper than campus and will be a quick ride away. There should be 10 storey apartments outside of every trolley stop.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 27, 2017 - 3:41pm.

I have to agree somewhat with bewildering, The only place where I found public transplantation cheaper than driving was in Asia, But that was likely because it was very heavily subsidized.

I hate being limited to what you can carry on the train, and waiting 30 minutes or more for the next train, then you end up walking half a mile to your destination.
PITA IMO

I like personal vehicles.

Plus if it is very cold or hot or raining just adds to the misery of PT.

Self driving cars would help however, I still would want to own my own.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 27, 2017 - 4:20pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
The only place where I found public transplantation cheaper than driving was in Asia, But that was likely because it was very heavily subsidized.

There you go. Is it any surprise that Asia is catching up to us very fast? look at their urban development.

Right now, public transport in USA means suffering because of delays, unreliable schedules and not being able to go where you wish.

China already has a second generation high speed train between Beijing and Shanghai. Those train companies are now sized on the order of Boeing in jobs and potential exports.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/peoplesd...
For context, China's first HSR went into service in 2006, a mere 2 years before the financial crisis. Now they have the best service in the world.

We dilly dally at our own risk.

America used to embrace tech, but now we seem to just to want single family houses and SUVs. That won't sustain us in the long run.

Today, NYC had a derailment that injured people and forced commuters to walk in rat infested tunnels. 1920s tech to support 10% of America's GDP. We should be proud, the country that built Grand Central station, the Golden Gate Bridge, Hoover Dam, last century.

like i said, wait 50 years, and those of you still alive who oppose development now and only want quaint garden style suburbia, within a 30 min drive to Costco, will watch the world and say "what have we done? what opportunities do our kids have?".

With home delivery and retail slowly dying, there will be nothing in those suburban communities.

My prediction is that, in the future, high paying professional jobs won't be in business parks surrounded by houses, but in dense urban city centres. As it is now, the top tier people want to be in top tier cities, which explains the cost of housing in those areas.

Submitted by gzz on June 27, 2017 - 4:23pm.

I took the bus when I worked in Europe. It was much cheaper than cars, which cost about 75% more due to taxes and regs than the USA, with gas about twice the price.

My boss let me use his older car, but commuting with a boat sized E Class wagon in a old Euro city was dangerous, so I kept it for intercity travel.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 27, 2017 - 4:36pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:
The only place where I found public transplantation cheaper than driving was in Asia, But that was likely because it was very heavily subsidized.

My prediction is that, in the future, high paying professional jobs won't be in business parks surrounded by houses, but in dense urban city centres. As it is now, the top tier people want to be in top tier cities, which explains the cost of housing in those areas.

It was still a PITA carrying stuff and walking miles to get anywhere in Shanghai LOL.

I really don't think that is in SoCal's DNA,

I think SoCal will do what it has done for the last 100 years, (make outlying suburbs into big cities).

Just look at Carlsbad, even that is spilling over into Oceanside.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 27, 2017 - 4:46pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:

I think SoCal will do what it has done for the last 100 years, (make outlying suburbs into big cities).

Just look at Carlsbad, even that is spilling over into Oceanside.

I agree somewhat because people are drawn to California.

We will see where the jobs are there in the future. But I worry less about California than other second tier American cities.

I would bet on big cities centers, especially if you need to change jobs. Despite telecommuting, you need to be near the decision makers.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 27, 2017 - 5:27pm.

here's more on the companion units.
The new rules will be adopted this summer.. but who knows.

Maybe a good time to build a granny flat next year.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news...

Submitted by bewildering on June 27, 2017 - 6:15pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:
The only place where I found public transplantation cheaper than driving was in Asia, But that was likely because it was very heavily subsidized.

There you go. Is it any surprise that Asia is catching up to us very fast? look at their urban development.

Right now, public transport in USA means suffering because of delays, unreliable schedules and not being able to go where you wish.

China already has a second generation high speed train between Beijing and Shanghai. Those train companies are now sized on the order of Boeing in jobs and potential exports.

"The China Railway Corporation, the state-owned operator of the train system, has debts of more than 4trn yuan, equal to about 6% of GDP."

The equivalent 6% in the USA woud be 1 trillion dollars. The majority of their high speed lines are running at a loss.

Surburbia is popular with families. I do not see that ever changing. You have more freedom with a SFH (and using a car). Living in an apartment means depending on having responsible neighbors or having onerous rules. In Germany, in my apartment, I was not allowed to flush my toilet after 10 pm.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 27, 2017 - 11:39pm.

Bewildering, sure there's a place for SFRs.

However, the reality is that the marketplace is not working. The current regulations make building high density very, very hard.
Why not let the free market work? If somehow landowners could merge and upzone their lots, they could build or sell, take the money and move elsewhere to their liking. Let the free market work to supply housing. The consumer can decide if he wants an apartment with no parking. If apartments/condos are so bad then there will be few customers.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 28, 2017 - 10:59am.

bewildering wrote:

In Germany, in my apartment, I was not allowed to flush my toilet after 10 pm.

Cheap construction that doesn't have much insulation between units.

The old stick built wood buildings under 5 stories are crap. With economy of scale and building technology improvements, we can have great apartments.

The narrative is that people moved away from the cities in the 50s to escape the tenement housing. Only recently are young people moving back. Suburbia is where people grew up and that's all they know. A comfortable urban alternative has not yet developed. But it's coming.

There is a hybrid between urban and suburban developing. The UTC area for example. Or the Irvine Spectrum area. Or Playa Vista in LA.

Submitted by lifeizfunhuh on July 23, 2017 - 9:10am.

But see

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-23...

I live in 92101, and the current supply of pending buildings is astonishing. Is anyone concerned about this? I recall huge new inventory coming on line in 2005-2007 as well.

Submitted by gzz on July 23, 2017 - 12:58pm.

Lifeiz,

New construction in San Diego seems to be very weighted toward luxury 2 bedrooms for $2400+.

That could slow rent growth just in that submarket. But overall construction is simply the lowest in modern San Diego records while the economy and population keep growing.

Even in that submarket, such places are popular with people moving here, students, retirees, and asian investment buyers.

If you think there is a lot of construction downtown now you don't remember 2004-2008.

Submitted by sdduuuude on August 3, 2017 - 9:16am.

Interesting data. Thing is, all the sub-contractors I am talking to are super-busy right now and some of the quotes I am getting for framers are incredibly high. Not sure how to reconcile that fact w/ the article.

Submitted by gzz on August 4, 2017 - 6:18am.

Framers can do other work than brand new construction. Renovation is very hot. In a way that feeds demand for housing.

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