Rural Urban Divide, Millennial Lifestyles & City of the Future

[scaredyclassic]

I trying hard not to buy things I dont really want just because they’re a “good deal”. My wife wouldnt move to NV anyway .

[FlyerInHi]

Temecula guy, knowing that you like Temecula, I recommend you buy a house at Southern Highlands or Western Henderson right off the 15. It’s the closest to CA. That corridor is where the Raiders live because it’s between the stadium and training center.

Or buy a townhouse at the original Las Vegas country club and remodel. If you have a large family, you will have so many visitors because vegas hotels are not cheap anymore. It’s only $10 Uber to the Strip nearby. The location is my favorite because you get the country club right in the middle of the city. Amazing!

Condotels are a scam. You have to use their rental services. MGM signature allows you to use Airbnb and do your own rental.

Summerlin is nice and has everything a self sufficient suburb must. But it’s so damn far. It would add 40 min to your drive from Cali. And 30 min from the strip is too far.

Old Henderson is ghetto to me. New Henderson is nice but it does not have the dining and entertainment options of summerlin. Summerlin schools are better.

Do it at the depth of the next recession. Your state tax savings will pay for the place.
The Vegas heat is not that much worse than Temecula in the summer. Electricity is cheaper in Nevada so you can feel free to run the AC.

[temeculaguy]

Good tips, thanks. I plan on waiting for the next recession as it seems Vegas has recovered well but conditions remain for deep discounts.

never looked at LV country club, did look at MGM because it seemed so convenient but small.

Southern Highland, great tip.

This one got to 300 in the last down cycle, of course they want 850 now, something like this will be perfect fit if we go sfr

https://www.redfin.com/NV/Las-Vegas/3480-W-Cactus-Ave-89141/home/29640569

Here’s an example, not what I’m looking at but it illustrates my point that now is not the time but if timed it may work well

https://www.redfin.com/NV/Las-Vegas/2845-Loveland-Dr-89109/unit-3612/home/29063912

84k in 2013, asking 178k now

But then again there’s examples like this

https://www.redfin.com/NV/Las-Vegas/3111-Bel-Air-Dr-89109/unit-27D/home/29466949

Over 600k in 2006 at peak, asking 234k today, but nearly a grand in HOA seems oppressive

then there’s this one, more likely in my wheelhouse but the decor will make my wife kill me

https://www.redfin.com/NV/Las-Vegas/3148-Bel-Air-Dr-89109/home/29467031

Double it’s 2011 price but even with it’s 540 ask, the low hoa makes it comparable to the 1k hoa condo.

I see that market as real bubbly but ripe in the next recession.

Lat question, what are your thoughts on the older marie antoinette condos walking distance to the strip

https://www.redfin.com/NV/Las-Vegas/205-E-Harmon-Ave-89169/unit-1005/home/29503690

at 600 hoa it is still high and its old but seems a good location for tourists. Probably sucks but I am just at the beginning of my research and I know it’s not the time, I have a few years before I’m going to do anything.

p.s. Temecula’s heat is in another world compared to vegas, escpecialy south temecula, we break a hundred a dozen or so times a year and ussualy just barely. Type “temecula weather averages” into google and you will see June, July and August are 84, 89 and 90 to vegas at 100, 105, 103. Sure both have hotter days and it seemed low to me because today was 100 but on average it’s 16 degrees different. That’s more than the carlsbad differential to temecula at 84, 89 and 90 in those same months, I call BS because carlsbad is much cooler, data is from weather trends but I’ve been in vegas and palm springs in summer and it’s just too much for me to live there full time in either place, that extra 10-15 degrees or so feels significant. But I get your point on AC and if you are retired you can work your schedule around it, not as significant and the winters can be great.

[The-Shoveler]

Looking at the prices in Las Vegas these days seems outrages. It makes TV and most of the IE look like a bargain even North county SD looks like a much better deal currently LOL.

The one issue I could see happening is there are too many boomers with the same Idea (wait for a crash, then buy Vegas).

It seems about half boomers I know have this Idea, when I see something like that it screams not going to happen, or not going to be as much a bargain as maybe you are hoping for.

Time will tell I guess.

Spending maybe 2-3 days in Vegas every year or 2 is enough IMO but to each their own (easy 2-3 day driving get away).

[FlyerInHi]

Tax savings shoveler. Your state tax savings can pay for the house in Vegas.
But prices have easily doubled or tripled since the crash. Vegas was hit hard but also performed some of the best on the way back. Vegas will again get hit harder than CA next recession.

I think Carl Icahn bought the unfinished Drew hotel for $120, held it a few years and flipped it for $400 million, haha

[FlyerInHi]

.

[FlyerInHi]

Temecula guy, Vegas is a boom a bust town. And there is always new stuff being built.

I love Marie Antoinette. Great location. If you have the inclination to remodel, then that location and LV country club are awesome. old units that have not had any work done for decades come up for sale regularly.

You sound like a social guy family guy so you will love being fairly close to the Strip and having your friends and family visit. Being a short Uber ride away allows visitors to come and go easily. The girls can go to a show or stay and relax while the guys hit the sports bar. If you’re out in the suburbs, you can only go out once a day and probably not on the spur of the moment.

panorama towers and the Martin, just across the freeway bridge from Aria are 3 high rise towers. More luxurious.

Allure is further north kitty corner from Sahara hotel. That’s probably great value in a recession because the north strip has a lot of new development going.

Turnberry is where rich retirees who want to be near the strip live. The style is Hollywood Regency. Maybe a good place for your kids to make friends with kids of wealthy families, haha.

Waldorf Astoria (Formerly Mandarin Oriental) condo right on the strip is the best. MGM sold the hotel to the family that founded Panda Express.

Just keep on browsing. And snatch a deal during the next recession. You will make money for sure, and save on state taxes.

If you go back to Cali or travel for the summer, you can rent out your place to different demographics (professors at UNLV nearby, traveling show people, doctors in training, etc…). Just list your place on Airbnb for 30 days or more. Local ordinances are 30 days; but careful, some HOAs require 180 days or limit rental altogether.

If you like the suburbs, there are tons of options. But you have that in temecula already.

BTW, UNLV is the #1 university for hospitality so people from around the world come to learn how to run hotels.

The raiders are coming. Fun place. Not really my style but the pros definitely offset the cons. Vegas is a cheap, fun big city. My friends love me because they can always stay at my place when in Vegas, even when I’m not there. They just leave money for the cleaning lady. But again Vegas is not my style; I do it for the money. I’d rather retire in Berlin or Bangkok but I need to earn money in California and USA. Oh, what we do for a buck!

Oh, so many restaurants also — a lot more than california. All kinds of ethnic food too if you’re willing to drive so seek it out. The distances are also much shorter than Cali because there are no canyons to separate neighborhoods.

[FlyerInHi]

Very interesting article on the rural urban divide.
I think real estate in the declining areas will not do well at all. If I were living I’m those areas, I would take Milton Friedman’s advice and move to where good jobs are, pronto.

As Philip Auerswald of George Mason University and Palo Alto Longevity Prize founder Joon Yun have noted in an astute recent article on the phenomenon, populism feeds on “the juxtaposition of rural population and economic decline against the growth and increasing prosperity of the largest cities.”

By now, the parallels to Western Europe and the United States should be apparent. Brexit enjoyed its greatest support in rural, demographically declining areas of England; populists dominate politics in Italy, whose population of 60 million is projected to decline 10 percent by 2050.
President Trump enjoys his strongest support among older inhabitants of lightly populated areas where, as in much of Soviet Eastern Europe, economic life centered on agriculture, mining or, occasionally, basic industries. Loudly voiced contempt for the pampered, politically correct hypocrites of San Francisco and Washington is central to his appeal.
Fifty-eight percent of registered voters in West Virginia, for example, approve of Trump’s performance in office, according to an October poll by Morning Consult.
West Virginia is the nation’s fourth oldest state, with a median age of 42.4 years; it is 94 percent white and, according to USA Today, the only state with both negative natural population growth and net out-migration in 2016.
Demographic decline is extremely difficult to reverse, wherever it occurs. As experience has shown in various countries, governments cannot do much to raise birthrates, even with generous subsidies for families with children.
Obviously, immigration counters the negative impact of labor force decline on economic growth; in every other respect, however, it energizes populism, at least of the right-wing variety, by raising the specter of demographic “replacement.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/the-incredible-shrinking-nations-of-eastern-europe/2019/11/11/fd777326-04a6-11ea-b17d-8b867891d39d_story.html

[FlyerInHi]

Maybe I’m wrong but I doubt it.

I still see a housing shortages in the largest metros.

Millennials moving away from large urban centers:

[The-Shoveler]

I would imagine living in downtown LA pretty much sucks.

Definitely not a place to raise kids.

I think you hit about your 30’s and you want a house with a yard you can afford that does not have helicopters shining spotlights on you.

Plus remote working is gaining more and more acceptance IMO, These days about half the company works from home more than half the time (but still need to be in the office a few days a week generally).

[FlyerInHi]

Minneapolis recent did away with single family zoning. That’s an excellent way to make cities more walkable. I wish San Diego would follow that example so that we can build more housing and improve our neighborhoods and tax base.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/07/11/housing-crisis-single-family-homes-policy-227265

BTW, downtown LA and many neighborhoods could be gentrified with higher density, like Paris or Tel Aviv, to make them more livable and walkable. It’s just a question of will and vision.

[The-Shoveler]

To each their own but give me a yard and a three car garage.

To have lived in the twentieth or twenty-first century and not have flown an airplane or owned a car I would feel that I had not lived it.

[FlyerInHi]

Actually doing away with single family only zoning in the city is very good compromise and 1 step in addressing the housing shortage.
People can still build single family houses, if they want. But lots will not longer be limited to single family only. It’s actually better for consumer choices and property rights. Let the market, not the zone and bureaucrats, decide what is built.

[svelte]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Actually doing away with single family only zoning in the city is very good compromise and 1 step in addressing the housing shortage.
People can still build single family houses, if they want. But lots will not longer be limited to single family only. It’s actually better for consumer choices and property rights. Let the market, not the zone and bureaucrats, decide what is built.[/quote]

You could make the same argument for doing away with ALL zoning.

Not sure that’s a good solution in the long run.

[FlyerInHi]

I just saw this ad on piggington for a high rise retirement community on the campus of Arizona State University. Very interesting concept. I love it.

ASU, in Tempe — kinda boring. But other universities could get into the game.
Many universities are now in public/private partnerships to create residential communities and density on and near campus.

If they‘re building it, there is demand.

https://www.retirement.org/mirabella-asu/discover-mirabella-luncheon-events/?gclid=CjwKCAiAp5nyBRABEiwApTwjXuXJn-H3KY9JH_XmfqJ-xqiHAL8rcrx_41fnEgcezfhJEKQWKFlPFBoCGOcQAvD_BwE

The future is brighter here.
Set to open in 2020, Mirabella at ASU is the result of an exciting new partnership between Pacific Retirement Services and Arizona State University. As a resort-style Life Plan Community located on the campus of Arizona State University, Mirabella will put you in the heart of an urban oasis bursting with culture, life, and excitement, and will give you easy access to a variety of lifelong learning opportunities. Our community will feature three penthouse dining venues, a state-of-the-art fitness and aquatic center, an auditorium and theater, and countless other amenities, all complemented by the peace of mind that comes with having a comprehensive continuum of care right here on-site.

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