Realtor Desperation?

[PerryChase]

I think that powayseller is right. However it would’ve phrased the way jg recommended: “Jim’s a broker, so you should view his comments in that light.”

Can I have my cake and eat it too?

I believe that picking a point and assuming an appreciation rate from there is the wrong approach. Pricing should be determined relative to purchasing power. If food and medicine, transportation and education skyrocket, home prices will certainly drop even if inflation is high.

Some of you guys are too antsy to have your predictions vindicated. It’s only been a short time. Let time pass. Be patient. Don’t get emotional or take it personally.

[equalizer]

Mexico resident

Please elaborate on your comment about appreciate a latin country. Family bonding is better, thats right. But did you mean courtesy, respect is better between people? Some people here are very opinionated and dont have any grace, but are probably decent people in person.

[equalizer]

as jg stated, list potential conflict of interest and you’re done. No need to provoke, save that for morons below.

Here’s a REAL outrageous conflict of interest story:
In Jan 2000, Bob Brinker (investment newletter bobbrinker.com, syndicated on ABC radio) told his radio audience to sell all stocks funds including IRAs, 401K and get into Ginnie Mae funds. [Mar 20003, he went 100% back into stocks and still 100% since then] He stated that your mutual fund manager is not going to tell you to get out of his fund, he gets paid to manage money. Fund managers retorted that they are paid to invest in stocks and not take a large cash position. At least Vanguard sent out letters warning of the danger in valuation. The fund managers job should be to make you money, not just take your money. Marty Whitman (TAVFX) had an excellent article circa 1999 about how 20% annual return is the best you can aim for. But then he’s a legend (16.68% AAR vs 10%(?) for SP500 for 16 year period with much less risk) and has class like Bob.

[renterclint]

Man, what am I missing? I’ve been coming to this site for a long time, and I didn’t even know this Jim fellow had his own blog. PS, thanks for providing the link. I’m looking forward to checking Jim’s blog out. Sounds interesting…

[JES]

PowaySeller – Did Jim pay you to start this controversial thread in order to draw people to his web site?

[balasr]

Thanks sdcellar. PS, I have been reading Piggington longer than you have (or at leastlonger than you have been posting on it). I have been using the internet from 1992, when the bulk of the what you could do was read email and newsgroups. So I do know that reading the basic documents is proper netiquette befre piping in with comments. BTW, anyone remember when Mosaic seemed like a breath of fresh air?

You are under the impression that everyone who sees the same set of data should come to the same conclusions. In your case you start ascribing various motives – desperation, being one – to people who do not agree with you conclusions.

Let me give a stock market analogy. Two professors Shiller of Yale and Siegel of Wharton disagree massively on the stock market, but are friends and vacation together. Neither wonders about ulterior motives. Do you know that Shiller who is probably the guru of all kinds of bubbles, still officially only says that you can’t predict how much or when housing will go down? Whereas I see you with exact numbers and timeframes. I am not saying you are incorrect, but I am just pointing out that it’s not easy to justify these things quantitatively.

BTW to whoever wrote that, it’s total BS that Northern Europeans are not “polite”. I had many friends from Germany in grad school and they were unfailingly polite.

The problem I see with the new paradigm model is that it is always in unstable equilibrium. A small push can lead to prices tumbling. And with many factors – macro-economic, political, divorce, etc., – it is highly improbable that people will stay put in their houses till prices pick up. The new paradigm is basically what Jim is advocating. While it is possible, it seems improbable due to the things I mentioned before. 10% yearly appreciation is also NOT normal for hosuing.

Another analogy would be the art market. It is highly illiquid and people who buy Monets for 50 million should be able to hold on to it till prices go back up. But that’s not what happens, does it? Quite often people sell art-work at losses, due to other factors forcing them to sell it.

Why can’t you just say things like that instead of name calling? Just wondering.

[Anonymous]

Hey, BS, quit using BS.

Group characterizations are useful, and don’t pertain to all individual members, of course.
Men are taller than women, though the lady who cleans my teeth is taller than me.
Northern Europeans (a group) are more direct than Americans (another group), though your (individual) German friends (and mine) are polite.

[powayseller]

sdcellar, balasr suggested I might think it’s different this time. The Bubble Primer lays it our current situation, and if we extrapolate the lines, we can picture how low it will go. so far, all events are unfolding just as we would expect.

cabinboy, I am not anonymous. I frequently sign my posts with my name, Schahrzad Berkland. I post in Roubini and Jim’s blog with my real name. I agree with you that we have to use our real names when we challenge another person. Too many people throw potshots hiding behind their anonymity, which is just chicken. Do you think my disagreement was an insult? You ought to see insult – I’ve had a lot of anonymous insults thrown my way. I take serious the ones where people sign their names.

Anyone who tries to tell you to buy real estate now is misguided. Are you afraid that Jim will be mad and stop posting his bearish analysis? Or are you saying it really is a good time to buy, as he proposes?

[balasr]

PS, I didn’t suggest that you might think it’s different this time. I just said how about turning your psychoanalytic apparatus on yourself and see if you fear that it might be different this time. You are quite keen on attributing motives to people who disagree with you, but how about yourself, that was the question. Obviously sdcellar got it.

jg, appreciate your point. But if you think being direct is calling people names (liar, desperate, unethical etc.), I can only say “lets just agree to disagree” and leave it at that.

[Anonymous]

BS, you’re right, it’s rude. I just hate being so ‘direct’ (like those darn Northern Europeans!).

[PerryChase]

I think that powayseller is absolutely correct. However, pointing out a person’s defects or motivations to his face is never polite. Like my mom told me, there are certain things that you know or think but you may never talk about.

powayseller could have simply said “I beg to differ with Jim; Jim is a Realtor so please view his comments in that light. Now here what I think the market will do ….” We’re not in front of a Jury so there is no need to debunk someone’s argument. The exception is David Lereah or GWB, ha.ha. Actually, I think that powayseller’s style is kinda like Donald Rumsfeld’s (which I kinda like).

[ocrenter]

Jim is an excellent resource and with great integrity. I would use him as a realtor if Carlsbad is within my reach without a doubt.

I do think the 10% was too little. We’re already seeing 15% drops in same-home comparisons.

Maybe I’m tinted too, but I’m just seeing so much fraud and loans gone sour and to think this is just starting out. the 4Closure Ranch properties I featured alone were around $5-6 million dollar in value.

My latest post on my blog features 4 homes all bought in 2005 for $2 million now on sale. Can you imagine folks out there are trying to flip $2 million dollar homes? And do you know how easy it was to find these? I picked 92130 on realtytrac.com, I went to the first home listed. Then I pasted the street name on ziprealty, and boom, 3 $2 million dollar flips on the same street! Then I realized the development only consists of 16 homes with 2 streets, and found the other flip on the other street. That’s $8 million dollar of mortgage going into default if someone don’t buy these homes. How many folks are walking around with $2 million these days?

My point is this: you take my post on the $2 million dollar flips and my 4Closure Ranch posts and there’s $14 million dollar either in default or will be soon. am I working 24/7 to dig these out? No. I do these before I go to work in the morning or half an hour before bed. I think the amount of fraud and foreclosures is going to surprise everyone, including Jim. And I don’t blame him. None of us have ever seen the type of loose credit and loan give away that’s occured in the last 5 years. So no one can predict for sure how this is going to end.

Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking

[PerryChase]

ocrenter, i love your blog. Why don’t you yjust give us the full addresses and MLS #s? The information is public so why not make it easy for us to look up the properties for ourselves? Thanks.

[ocrenter]

well, let’s open it up here. what do most of you, I esp want to know from sdrealtor, SD realtor, sdappraiser, and bugs, whether it is right or legal to post the whole address/MLS #.

[JES]

How can it be illegal if it is public information? I can drive down a street, see a for sale sign, look at the address and pull a flyer. Or I can go online and find a home for sale with the address, and I can even go to the tax files and check on property taxes. There is even more information that is public than what I just mentioned. But for some reason when it comes to posting an actual address on a bubble web site we worry about it?

[Author]

Posts