Realtor Desperation?

[JES]

He could also be right with his predictions, and in the end whether they are yours or his they are just that, predictions. Nothing is certain and even though we may disagree with them, there are very smart people who think now is indeed a great time to buy. Jim is obviously a very intelligent and fair minded guy and has every right to make reccomendations and predictions without being called desperate, self serving and ludicrous. I marvel at the amount of data that he is able to come up with and just yesterday I was thinking that Jim would have made a great military intelligence officer. If he were the self serving guy that you describe him as do you think he would be spending so much time maintaining his blog? If you look at the big picture, his blog paints a very grim picture of the market and is not at all self serving. I’m disturbed that we even have a thread dedicated to him.

[Anonymous]

“Buying a home in San Diego today is like buying AOL in 2000”

I’d have to agree with powayseller on this one.

This is NOT the time to buy in SD no matter how “superior” a property is(unless its some BIG TIME low balling).

[powayseller]

The blog is a marketing tool. It attracts potential buyers, like you JES and his other fans who defended him above. Jim is a great guy, smart, honest, has integrity, very knowledgeable. He’s super smart too. Did I mention he is smart… a hard worker. However, he is a salesman, and he is trying to sell real estate. The blog is a marketing/advertising venue for him.

For a salesman, it’s always a good time for a client to buy. So of course the blog is self serving. He’s hoping to get clients. He’s arguing that now is a good time to buy, because 1) we are not that far off the bottom, and 2) when a superior property comes along you should buy it before it slips away, and 3) superior properties don’t drop much in price. I disgree strongly with all 3 of those statements.

For what it’s worth, I recommended Jim to my neighbor who is selling a house, but she had to use her relocation company realtor. If I were selling, I would feel very comfortable with Jim over another agent; he knows how to position a home in a difficult market. I would hire him too for my buyer’s agent, but now is not the time. In 5 years, I would hire Jim to help me find a house. He’s just a darn good realtor. But now is not the time to buy, it’s as simple as that! Now is the time to sell and hold on to your cash. Maybe load up on some gold. All these recent comments from Treasury officials, the debt, and the falling dollar are really starting to scare me. A lot!

[sdcellar]

PS– you misquote him and you misrepresent him. At least you toned it down from Jim saying “it’s a great time to buy” to “it’s a good time to buy”. He never said the former in his post (go search it) and he’s only just suggesting the latter may be a possibility. And when you come back with “I’d recommend him,” you’re really just talking out of both sides of your face.

I don’t agree with everything Jim says, but at least he truly seems open minded about things and is just throwing things out there for discussion. He is much less black and white than you.

The funny thing is that for the most part I tend to agree with your views regarding the future of the market, but it’s also your absolute certainty of the outcome that causes me to question it.

[JES]

It’s funny…I follow Jim’s blog weekly and my impression has been that he has actually been focused on trying to get potential sellers to list with him, not necessarily pumping up the market up to reel in buyers. It seems to me that it is to his advantage to walk a fine line and just analyze the facts.

[VCJIM]

PS,

You stated:

“All these recent comments from Treasury officials, the debt, and the falling dollar are really starting to scare me”

What evidence do you have of a falling dollar? I’ve been tracking the dollar vs. the Euro and Yen and it is holding strong.

In late July, the dollar was worth 117.2 Yen and .795 Euro. The low since then, the dollar 114.2 Yen and .776 Euro in early August. Today, it is worth 117.1 Yen and .782 Euro. Please provide evidence of a falling dollar.

[balasr]

A piece of unsolicited advice for PS. Stop seeing ulterior motives behind what people say and start taking them their word for it. It leads to much better dialogs. Also instead of psychoanalyzing Jims motives, how about turning that on yourself. Are you scared that this time it might indeed be different, and you may not make much (or any) profit from selling your house? Is that causing you to see demons everywhere?

You seem to think you can say anything you please. A bit of consideration for other peoples feelings will go a long way.

BTW, I don’t own a home (never have owned one) and if prices don’t drop by 20-25% in the next 2-03 years, I’ll move out of the San Diego area. So I do hope Jim is wrong.

[powayseller]

The falling dollar as a possibility comes from several recent articles. I will post the next time I see one.

balasr, did you read the Bubble Primer?

[VCJIM]

Your writing indicated a current condition of a falling dollar, not the possibility or prediction of a falling dollar. Perhaps a little more clarity would be in order, lest someone think that the dollar is currently falling when in fact, it is not.

[Mexico Resident]

I like Jim’s posting for simple reasons – he has insight and he does a lot of work for us lazy folks by bringing a lot of statistics, facts, and examples. PS, please, I do enjoy your posts also, but how would you feel if someone said you are driven by the profit motive. (Because your real estate site is going to have at least some features for a fee). This discussion makes me appreciate a latin country.

[sdcellar]

powayseller, did you read balasr’s post? What makes you think he (she?) needs to read the Primer? Is it because of the use of the dreaded words “different this time?”

Read the whole thing, sounds like he believes/hopes prices will come down, so I think he gets it.

[cabinboy]

Powayseller (aka Chicken Little),

Why on earth would you want to post something about a non-anonymous person that could be interpreted by other readers as negative? Jim is a realtor for his livelihood and does not have the cloak of anonymity that you get to enjoy. This is outrageous. Do not even try to recant and think that the fact you’ve dropped in some positive comments justifies presenting such an analysis of the efforts of someone who is clearly trying to do his best to keep people informed.

Folks, Jim maintains a web site that provides us a very nice and unique look at what’s going on out there. HE POSTS REAL DATA, and any prospective client can go ahead and examine that data in detail, along with Jim’s analysis of the data and what is happening in the market. There are plenty of folks in this world who will by a home for the long term even if they know $200K is going to get shaved off the top. Now is clearly a better time to buy than 2004 or 2005. Will it be better still in 2008? It depends on the needs of the buyer, and Jim has a clear understanding of the diversity of needs among his current and prospective client base.

Frankly, Poway, you need to study up on how the world uses fundamental data to predict the directions of the markets. First, understand which pieces of data and which specific sections of reports the WISE money looks at, and second, the significant limitations of using even the right data and leading indicators for predicting which way the markets are going to go. I don’t mind when your carrying on about housing- a market whose status even the general media has now caught onto, but when you start crowing about the dollar and other issues you clearly know very little about (like the stock market), I start to get a little irked.

You missed a 10% runup in stocks, as did all the other folks who were influenced by the highly effective cheerleading you do to promote your market timing plays. Please pull back a little bit, particularly when you start making assessments on non-anonymous folks that start to lie in the gray area that could easily be interpreted as negative by the casual reader.

[Wiley]

PS is right.

Jim’s a salesman.

The dollar is toast.

This thread is dead.

Wiley

[Anonymous]

Cabinboy, I agree with your comment, and with many others’ on this.

PS, I recommend that you make a simple statement, “Jim’s a broker, so you should view his comments in that light,” and then list your facts/counterarguments. Don’t publicly question a friend’s motives; that’s not how you motivate someone to keep producing. And, by golly, I want Jim to keep producing (his analyses)!

Northern Europeans are blunt, and we Americans find such provocative, raising our fighting spirit. Just food for thought.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

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