Pending inventory lag and inventory impact

[Escoguy]

A co-worker of mine recently contracted to buy a home in 92027. She mentioned that well over half the homes she was interested in which were active listings already had buyers even though they were not yet noted as pending.

Even the home she contracted for two weeks ago is still listed as active.
Apparently, it will only show as pending when all contingencies are completed in her case.

I didn’t realize that there was such a lag between the listing and the pending status.

My impression is that inventory may even be lower than the monthly charts show as the active listings should ideally filter out any home under contract. With the delay in updating status, buyers may waste time thinking there is more inventory to choose from.

[spdrun]

There are four states of a listing.
1. Active
2. Contingent
3. Pending
4. Sold

Brokers should be using (2) during contingency period. Keep in mind that this problem (if any) is nothing new, so inventory is still a valid basis for comparison, if not a 100% accurate figure.

[bearishgurl]

I don’t blame brokers and agents for not listing a property as “pending” until all contingencies are removed in an escrow with an accepted offer. In fact, they should continue to accept backup offers (and tell these offerors it will be such). Anything could happen in escrow and a CA buyer in escrow can now apparently back out of a transaction for any reason and get their earnest money back as long as their contingency-approval date(s) have not elapsed.

The best thing for a buyer’s agent to do before writing up an offer is to find out from the listing agent if the seller has accepted an offer and also if they are accepting backup offers (if their clients are very interested in the property). A property should not be listed as “pending” on the MLS until all contingencies have been removed and the sellers agent has examined the buyer’s original pre-approval letter from their lender signed by an underwriter and even possibly spoke on the phone with the buyers’ loan officer re: their mortgage qualifications OR verified proof of buyers’ funds in a cash sale.

Anything less is not representing sellers properly. Whatever is out there on MLS aggregators (especially in a fast-moving market with little inventory) shouldn’t be counted on as actually being available at any given time. The same listings on the actual MLS for a particular region may have more notes which would assist a buyer’s agent but those notes are not carried over to public MLS aggregators. It’s as it should be.

[Escoguy]

BG
Thanks for your comments, if you look at the contingent as a portion of active back in early 2013, almost all active were contingent. I’m guessing that the brokers aren’t updating the contingent like they used to. Would be useful to know what portion of “active” really is active, but while one data point isn’t the full story, I’m guessing it could be as much as 50% today which would align more with the spring 2013 data.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=Escoguy]BG
Thanks for your comments, if you look at the contingent as a portion of active back in early 2013, almost all active were contingent. I’m guessing that the brokers aren’t updating the contingent like they used to. Would be useful to know what portion of “active” really is active, but while one data point isn’t the full story, I’m guessing it could be as much as 50% today which would align more with the spring 2013 data.[/quote]The word “contingent” in the upper LH corner of an online listing from a major MLS aggregator (i.e. “realtor.com” or “Redfin”) also means that the seller’s lender(s) must approve any offers because the seller’s listed price is lower than what they owe on the property. It could also mean that there has been a current offer under consideration by seller’s lender(s) for many weeks/months and the listing agent is accepting backup offers in the likely event that seller’s lender(s) will not accept the current offer they have been considering. Again, the buyer’s agent should always find out from the listing agent if sellers are still accepting offers (or backup offers) on the property before attempting to submit any offers on it. It is also helpful to find out what the offers were that seller and/or their lender(s) have already turned down so their client(s) can decide if they want to place an offer … or not.

In other words, today “contingent” usually means the listing is a (wishful) “short sale.” In some SS listings (very few), the listing broker/agent has already received in writing from seller’s lender(s) payoff amounts they will settle for upon sale (based upon a consummated deal within a particular time frame) and the listing is priced accordingly. This situation is rare.

In 2013, there were far more SS listings than there are today … where they now seem to be concentrated in just a handful of zip codes.

Yesterday, I complained here vociferously on why lender(s) aren’t cracking down on their CA deadbeat-homedebtor trustors of non-performing loans and foreclosing on them at this late date.

http://piggington.com/not_house_proud#comment-266463

These lagging “wishful SS listings” and the many residential properties hiding in plain sight with low or non-performing mods on them which are mostly in no condition to sell anywhere near market price need to be foreclosed upon, IMO. I believe this phenomenon is contributing to poor inventory in many CA urban and suburban zip codes as well as running down property values in these areas.

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