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August 11, 2007 at 1:27 PM #73475August 11, 2007 at 3:14 PM #73398one_muggleParticipant
Global Insights market report for housing over [under] valuation.
(sorry for the lousy format)
First quarter (except 2006Q4 entry) over/[under]valuation for 2003|2004|2005|2006|2006Q4|2007
San Diego, CA $320.0 6.0% | $389.3 18.9% | $480.8 39.2% | $498.1 35.1% | $475.9 25.6% | $469.1 21.6%Los Angeles, CA $286.8 1.1% | $353.4 18.4% | $439.8 41.0% | $521.2 57.7% | $527.9 55.7% | $524.9 52.1%
These numbers are all overvaluations, but as recent as 2002, this same report had LA and SD as undervalued -5.5 and -3.4, respectively.
They also stated that the higher the overvaluation, the faster and harder the reversion to the trend. I guess you can think of it like a stretched rubberband. Which gives some credibility to the “fast” theory of depreciation.
Though, I stubbornly cling onto the long, painful decline model.
I also find it interesting, given how pessimistic people are on SD, that LA looks to be in for far worse. Maybe Arnie can save us with his acting.
-one muggleAugust 11, 2007 at 3:14 PM #73518one_muggleParticipantGlobal Insights market report for housing over [under] valuation.
(sorry for the lousy format)
First quarter (except 2006Q4 entry) over/[under]valuation for 2003|2004|2005|2006|2006Q4|2007
San Diego, CA $320.0 6.0% | $389.3 18.9% | $480.8 39.2% | $498.1 35.1% | $475.9 25.6% | $469.1 21.6%Los Angeles, CA $286.8 1.1% | $353.4 18.4% | $439.8 41.0% | $521.2 57.7% | $527.9 55.7% | $524.9 52.1%
These numbers are all overvaluations, but as recent as 2002, this same report had LA and SD as undervalued -5.5 and -3.4, respectively.
They also stated that the higher the overvaluation, the faster and harder the reversion to the trend. I guess you can think of it like a stretched rubberband. Which gives some credibility to the “fast” theory of depreciation.
Though, I stubbornly cling onto the long, painful decline model.
I also find it interesting, given how pessimistic people are on SD, that LA looks to be in for far worse. Maybe Arnie can save us with his acting.
-one muggleAugust 11, 2007 at 3:14 PM #73526one_muggleParticipantGlobal Insights market report for housing over [under] valuation.
(sorry for the lousy format)
First quarter (except 2006Q4 entry) over/[under]valuation for 2003|2004|2005|2006|2006Q4|2007
San Diego, CA $320.0 6.0% | $389.3 18.9% | $480.8 39.2% | $498.1 35.1% | $475.9 25.6% | $469.1 21.6%Los Angeles, CA $286.8 1.1% | $353.4 18.4% | $439.8 41.0% | $521.2 57.7% | $527.9 55.7% | $524.9 52.1%
These numbers are all overvaluations, but as recent as 2002, this same report had LA and SD as undervalued -5.5 and -3.4, respectively.
They also stated that the higher the overvaluation, the faster and harder the reversion to the trend. I guess you can think of it like a stretched rubberband. Which gives some credibility to the “fast” theory of depreciation.
Though, I stubbornly cling onto the long, painful decline model.
I also find it interesting, given how pessimistic people are on SD, that LA looks to be in for far worse. Maybe Arnie can save us with his acting.
-one muggleAugust 11, 2007 at 3:17 PM #73402HereWeGoParticipantsdr-
Are you seeing any effects from the current credit tightening?August 11, 2007 at 3:17 PM #73521HereWeGoParticipantsdr-
Are you seeing any effects from the current credit tightening?August 11, 2007 at 3:17 PM #73529HereWeGoParticipantsdr-
Are you seeing any effects from the current credit tightening?August 11, 2007 at 3:27 PM #73414nooneParticipant“Are you seeing any effects from the current credit tightening?”
That seems to be the difference now. Though there has been a lot of talk about tightening credit, I don’t think it has really happened. With all the news this week though, I think it is finally starting. If folks can’t get the loans, they won’t be able to buy the homes. Only those who have large sums of cash will. And hopefully not too many of them are fools.
August 11, 2007 at 3:27 PM #73533nooneParticipant“Are you seeing any effects from the current credit tightening?”
That seems to be the difference now. Though there has been a lot of talk about tightening credit, I don’t think it has really happened. With all the news this week though, I think it is finally starting. If folks can’t get the loans, they won’t be able to buy the homes. Only those who have large sums of cash will. And hopefully not too many of them are fools.
August 11, 2007 at 3:27 PM #73541nooneParticipant“Are you seeing any effects from the current credit tightening?”
That seems to be the difference now. Though there has been a lot of talk about tightening credit, I don’t think it has really happened. With all the news this week though, I think it is finally starting. If folks can’t get the loans, they won’t be able to buy the homes. Only those who have large sums of cash will. And hopefully not too many of them are fools.
August 11, 2007 at 3:45 PM #73424temeculaguyParticipantMake no mistake about it, it’s happened. As a self proclaimed standing inventory stalker, builders are giving back deposits, resale deals done with pre-qualed buyers are falling through, buyers that qualified a month or two ago are being rejected today, not one or two, a bunch depending on the price point. Obviously the move up, high enders aren’t being hit as much as the lower end where sub and alt-a’s and 0 down are the dominant buyer, in those market’s they feel like the season changed to winter overnight. Try this, call a broker and tell him you want to buy a house for 800k, no down no doc while you are in a standing position and at the time you say the last syllable drop a penny from your hand, held out to your side, level with your head. Then see if the penny hits the ground before he hangs up on you, then you’ll know if things have changed.
August 11, 2007 at 3:45 PM #73542temeculaguyParticipantMake no mistake about it, it’s happened. As a self proclaimed standing inventory stalker, builders are giving back deposits, resale deals done with pre-qualed buyers are falling through, buyers that qualified a month or two ago are being rejected today, not one or two, a bunch depending on the price point. Obviously the move up, high enders aren’t being hit as much as the lower end where sub and alt-a’s and 0 down are the dominant buyer, in those market’s they feel like the season changed to winter overnight. Try this, call a broker and tell him you want to buy a house for 800k, no down no doc while you are in a standing position and at the time you say the last syllable drop a penny from your hand, held out to your side, level with your head. Then see if the penny hits the ground before he hangs up on you, then you’ll know if things have changed.
August 11, 2007 at 3:45 PM #73550temeculaguyParticipantMake no mistake about it, it’s happened. As a self proclaimed standing inventory stalker, builders are giving back deposits, resale deals done with pre-qualed buyers are falling through, buyers that qualified a month or two ago are being rejected today, not one or two, a bunch depending on the price point. Obviously the move up, high enders aren’t being hit as much as the lower end where sub and alt-a’s and 0 down are the dominant buyer, in those market’s they feel like the season changed to winter overnight. Try this, call a broker and tell him you want to buy a house for 800k, no down no doc while you are in a standing position and at the time you say the last syllable drop a penny from your hand, held out to your side, level with your head. Then see if the penny hits the ground before he hangs up on you, then you’ll know if things have changed.
August 11, 2007 at 3:53 PM #73428ArrayaParticipantStanding inventory stalker…haha We should start a club! Oh, ya Rich already did…
August 11, 2007 at 3:53 PM #73548ArrayaParticipantStanding inventory stalker…haha We should start a club! Oh, ya Rich already did…
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