July Foreclosure and trend–huge impact on price in 6 months!?

[wantobuy]

According to http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20070805-9999-1n5reo.html, current foreclosure/resale is about 9.7%, less than 15% in last downturns, therefore as many posters have observed (including the last auction) NOD/NOT have not big impact yet on price.

July’s foreclosure is more than 650. With this rate (650 a month, though the current trend is accelerating, see figures at http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20070725-9999-1n25default.html), it’s going to take less than 6 months to make the foreclosure/resale more than 25%, less than a year to make the foreclosure/resale more than 1/3! What huge impact is this going to have on the housing price???
Many posters here have thought the correction it’s going to take two to five years or even longer. Could it actually be much faster, in less than a year? what problems in my simplified thinking? Thanks for sharing your insight.

[temeculaguy]

No problems in your simplified thinking, major corporations are saying similar things, unprecedented is the latest buzz word in the media. It will not take longer than five years to unwind, may not take two years. If you read many of the other threads, many of us have been suprised at the events of the past two weeks and nobody knows what effect it will have. Look at threads from from six months ago and a lot of posters called for the end of the summer to be an interesting time, turns out they were right. I say sh%@ hits the fan by Christmas. 2-5 years is too conservative at this point, we are in the down cycle now and 2-5 months it will be a whole different ball game.

[temeculaguy]

No problems in your simplified thinking, major corporations are saying similar things, unprecedented is the latest buzz word in the media. It will not take longer than five years to unwind, may not take two years. If you read many of the other threads, many of us have been suprised at the events of the past two weeks and nobody knows what effect it will have. Look at threads from from six months ago and a lot of posters called for the end of the summer to be an interesting time, turns out they were right. I say sh%@ hits the fan by Christmas. 2-5 years is too conservative at this point, we are in the down cycle now and 2-5 months it will be a whole different ball game.

[temeculaguy]

No problems in your simplified thinking, major corporations are saying similar things, unprecedented is the latest buzz word in the media. It will not take longer than five years to unwind, may not take two years. If you read many of the other threads, many of us have been suprised at the events of the past two weeks and nobody knows what effect it will have. Look at threads from from six months ago and a lot of posters called for the end of the summer to be an interesting time, turns out they were right. I say sh%@ hits the fan by Christmas. 2-5 years is too conservative at this point, we are in the down cycle now and 2-5 months it will be a whole different ball game.

[no_such_reality]

I suspect flawed reporting: “During the second quarter of this year, the proportion of foreclosure sales shot up to 9.7 percent of all resales”

I see foreclosures of Apr – 604, May – 614, Jun – 738.

If foreclosures a 9.5% of sales that means over 6000 resales a month.

Either the reporter can’t do math, or the reporter means foreclosures reselling were only 9.5% of the sales, even though foreclosures that are unsold really are closer to 20-25% of the resale volume.

[no_such_reality]

I suspect flawed reporting: “During the second quarter of this year, the proportion of foreclosure sales shot up to 9.7 percent of all resales”

I see foreclosures of Apr – 604, May – 614, Jun – 738.

If foreclosures a 9.5% of sales that means over 6000 resales a month.

Either the reporter can’t do math, or the reporter means foreclosures reselling were only 9.5% of the sales, even though foreclosures that are unsold really are closer to 20-25% of the resale volume.

[no_such_reality]

I suspect flawed reporting: “During the second quarter of this year, the proportion of foreclosure sales shot up to 9.7 percent of all resales”

I see foreclosures of Apr – 604, May – 614, Jun – 738.

If foreclosures a 9.5% of sales that means over 6000 resales a month.

Either the reporter can’t do math, or the reporter means foreclosures reselling were only 9.5% of the sales, even though foreclosures that are unsold really are closer to 20-25% of the resale volume.

[sdrealtor]

I expected the market to start its next leg down in Mid-August once the peak selling season ended. The events of the last 2 weeks only add the downward pressures on the market. Looking at this my mind tells me we should start a quicker decline but experience with the stickiness fo prices says otherwise. Anything could happen but for now I am sticking with my prediction from January which was 5 to 10% decline this year will essentially all of it coming between August 15th and November 30th.

[sdrealtor]

I expected the market to start its next leg down in Mid-August once the peak selling season ended. The events of the last 2 weeks only add the downward pressures on the market. Looking at this my mind tells me we should start a quicker decline but experience with the stickiness fo prices says otherwise. Anything could happen but for now I am sticking with my prediction from January which was 5 to 10% decline this year will essentially all of it coming between August 15th and November 30th.

[sdrealtor]

I expected the market to start its next leg down in Mid-August once the peak selling season ended. The events of the last 2 weeks only add the downward pressures on the market. Looking at this my mind tells me we should start a quicker decline but experience with the stickiness fo prices says otherwise. Anything could happen but for now I am sticking with my prediction from January which was 5 to 10% decline this year will essentially all of it coming between August 15th and November 30th.

[Arraya]

“Economist Schniepp sees a strong link between foreclosures and the recent meltdown of the subprime lending market.”

Brilliant deduction! (sarcasm)

[Arraya]

“Economist Schniepp sees a strong link between foreclosures and the recent meltdown of the subprime lending market.”

Brilliant deduction! (sarcasm)

[Arraya]

“Economist Schniepp sees a strong link between foreclosures and the recent meltdown of the subprime lending market.”

Brilliant deduction! (sarcasm)

[NotCranky]

Yes sdr,
You would think that, generally speaking,if anything gets into escrow now and for the rest your time frame,it will be because of a substantial price reduction.

[NotCranky]

Yes sdr,
You would think that, generally speaking,if anything gets into escrow now and for the rest your time frame,it will be because of a substantial price reduction.

[Author]

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