- This topic has 57 replies, 15 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 6 months ago by
Ex-SD.
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AuthorPosts
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August 2, 2007 at 4:38 PM #9684
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August 2, 2007 at 5:04 PM #69711
LA_Renter
ParticipantI don’t think these guys are going to make it to the finish line.
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August 2, 2007 at 5:04 PM #69785
LA_Renter
ParticipantI don’t think these guys are going to make it to the finish line.
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August 2, 2007 at 5:14 PM #69713
bsrsharma
ParticipantThis is a magical moment. See how fast home prices will “limbo dance” below that limit. Good news for many aspiring Piggingtonians! When one can’t get a mortgage above 417K, that market essentially dies for all except cash buyers.
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August 2, 2007 at 5:20 PM #69720
contraman
ParticipantOh…..that is what my extremely wealthy mentor meant when he said, there comes a time when “CASH IS KING” and I am not talking about some guru who talks about his Poor and Rich Dad and co-markets books with some arrogant prick who lost his Father’s fortunes…..and get off on telling people they are fired…..what a joke that guy is….pure marketer….
Sincerely, Contraman
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August 2, 2007 at 6:36 PM #69746
DaCounselor
ParticipantDoes FM’s guidelines for purchase take into account what is happening behind the loan they are purchasing (aka 2nd position)? I’m guessing that FM can buy a $417K first mtg. that is part of an 80/20 deal (to the extent that 80/20’s are going to be made) and that will be conforming even with a $104K second mtg. sitting behind it, for a total loan of $521K.
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August 2, 2007 at 6:41 PM #69750
contraman
ParticipantFM guidelines are you can’t go over 417,000 total for the combined loans. 100% LTV capped at 417,000
Sincerely, Contraman
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August 2, 2007 at 6:41 PM #69825
contraman
ParticipantFM guidelines are you can’t go over 417,000 total for the combined loans. 100% LTV capped at 417,000
Sincerely, Contraman
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August 2, 2007 at 6:45 PM #69752
rb_engineer
ParticipantDo you think its reasonable to raise the threshold for conforming loans in California? Maybe to somewhere between Alaska/Hawaii and the rest of the country. Why are Alaska and Hawaii getting this treatment anyway?
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August 2, 2007 at 6:51 PM #69754
contraman
ParticipantNo. I do not think they should raise the threshold because the market needs to correct itself to where it should have been before the very “loose” lending programs entered the market in 2001 and 2002. It is not a Fannie Mae issue. It is an asset bubble issue. The market is out of whack and the psychology is slowly shifting to one of fear and panic.
Can’t wait until 2009 / 2010.
Sincerely, Contraman
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August 2, 2007 at 6:51 PM #69829
contraman
ParticipantNo. I do not think they should raise the threshold because the market needs to correct itself to where it should have been before the very “loose” lending programs entered the market in 2001 and 2002. It is not a Fannie Mae issue. It is an asset bubble issue. The market is out of whack and the psychology is slowly shifting to one of fear and panic.
Can’t wait until 2009 / 2010.
Sincerely, Contraman
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August 2, 2007 at 8:21 PM #69768
bsrsharma
ParticipantThe most humane way to shrink the monster bubble to a raisin is to take away the bottle of large cheap mortgages. When anyone who wants to buy a half mil $ property HAS to bring half mil $ cash, rationality will be quickly restored.
rb_engineer: What is the special treatment for Alaska/Hawaii and why?
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August 2, 2007 at 9:43 PM #69776
LA_Renter
ParticipantFor what it’s worth this is K Denninger’s take at market-ticker;
“The market has not yet gotten its arms around the Moody’s announcement on the securitization credit rating process as I outlined in the ticker the other night. It will. When? I can’t tell you that, but what I can tell you with certainty is that the squeeze in the mortgage marketplace will get much worse, will implode more lenders and will materially impact all of them.
The warning on this was when S&P said they were re-jiggering their models for mortgage ABS issues. But – they didn’t put any hair on that dog. Moody’s did, however, and then turned it rabid and let it loose.
Ignore this at your peril if you are long the market.
As I have said repeatedly – 30% of the demand that exists now in the housing market is going to be flushed as the ALT-A and Subprime pipeline is either shut down entirely or repriced to near credit-card rates. This IS happening – right now – and it WILL drag the economy into a recession. This will not end until there is a serious price contraction in housing prices so that affordability returns to historical norms.
Now go back and read that again guys. And then again. And then again.”
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
Yikes!
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August 2, 2007 at 9:50 PM #69780
ak1
ParticipantI just noticed that Wells Fargo just increased their rate for 30 year fixed jumbo loans to 8% from 6 7/8% last week! Here’s the link http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118609866621886776.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo
Quote from the article
“Lenders are tightening standards and “raising rates like crazy,” said Melissa Cohn, chief executive of Manhattan Mortgage, a New York mortgage broker. She said Wells Fargo & Co. is charging 8% for a prime jumbo 30-year fixed-rate loan that carried a 6 7/8% rate late last week.”
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August 2, 2007 at 10:11 PM #69784
rb_engineer
ParticipantProbably a typo. Wells Fargo website says 7%. None the less, its still very high.
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August 2, 2007 at 10:21 PM #69786
bsrsharma
Participant“its still very high.”
I happily paid 7.625% on a conforming loan for 7 years. For how many years in last 40 years was this cheaper than 7%? I think people have become addicted to low rates. Time to kick the habit. That will promote savings over consumption.
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August 2, 2007 at 10:49 PM #69794
rb_engineer
ParticipantWell. 7% is above my threshold of comfort. Yes, I’m spoiled…
Hawaii and Alaska’s conforming loan is 625K. I guess because houses are more expensive there.
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August 2, 2007 at 11:04 PM #69798
bsrsharma
Participant“Hawaii and Alaska’s conforming loan is 625K. I guess because houses are more expensive there.”
Interesting; for that number, households should be making 150K-200K p.a. What is the source of that kind of income? I haven’t been to either state.
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August 2, 2007 at 11:32 PM #69802
rb_engineer
ParticipantI would say Hawaii is purely supply and demand. Personally, I don’t really subscribe to the “median income x == median price x”. Just like anything, price goes up if demand goes up. I would say for Alaska, its set high to attract people. Just a guess.
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August 2, 2007 at 11:42 PM #69804
bsrsharma
ParticipantI can see Hawaii being a “trophy” market with small supply. But Alaska? It has infinite amount of land compared to people making it almost worthless and one has to catch a lot of fish (if not pumping oil or gas) to afford those numbers.
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August 3, 2007 at 8:59 AM #69864
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantThe higher conforming loan limit also applies to Guam and the US Virgin Islands.
Guam ?
Can;t be expensive there.Methinks it has something to do with political pull. Perhaps Sen Stevens and Sen Inoue had something to do with it. In Alaska’s case it falls in the same category as the bridge to nowhere.
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August 3, 2007 at 9:25 AM #69876
GoUSC
ParticipantTo put it simply I will take high interest rates and low home prices versus the opposite. At least I get a bigger write-off and can always refinance when rates get lower. Buying an expensive house with a low interest rate leaves you no where to go.
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August 3, 2007 at 10:14 AM #69908
bsrsharma
ParticipantI peeked at Anchorage listings, the prices aren’t too high. Feels like San Diego pre-bubble or early-bubble days. Not a bad place for equity harvesters if you like long days (and nights) and ice. Juneau is a bit pricier, but still feels like a bargain for anyone from SD/OC areas.
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August 3, 2007 at 10:16 AM #69910
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantI received a solicitation in the mail yesterday from IndyMac bank advertising 5.55% CD rates. Seems they are eager (as indicated by high rates) to borrow some funds from consumers (still cheaper than floating bonds out there). Hmmm… Wonder why ?
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August 3, 2007 at 11:29 AM #69930
Anonymous
GuestThe non conforming market is taking a beating. I quoted a rate of 6.625% 2 weeks ago and today that same loan is at 8.5%.
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August 3, 2007 at 12:13 PM #69948
Bugs
ParticipantI remember not so long ago making a comment about interest rates increasing above 8% and getting a couple comments saying I was being way too pessimistic.
Apparently I wasn’t being THAT pessimistic.
At this point I’d say the difference between what it takes to go from 6.5% to 8.5% on a jumbo is a lot larger than what it would take to go from 8.5% to 10%.
A $500,000 loan at 6.5% = $3143/month
A $500,000 loan at 8.5% = $3817/month
A $500,000 loan at 10.% = $4315/month.It almost makes one wonder where the ceiling is? Could we be looking at an early 1980s credit scenario?
A $3,143/month loan payment services a $308,000 mortgage at 12%. Not counting taxes and insurance. Offset that some by the tax writeoff for the higher interest rate, but we’d still looking at a 35% haircut just because of interest rates, not counting whatever other damage to the economy would result from that type of credit contraction.
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August 3, 2007 at 12:13 PM #70023
Bugs
ParticipantI remember not so long ago making a comment about interest rates increasing above 8% and getting a couple comments saying I was being way too pessimistic.
Apparently I wasn’t being THAT pessimistic.
At this point I’d say the difference between what it takes to go from 6.5% to 8.5% on a jumbo is a lot larger than what it would take to go from 8.5% to 10%.
A $500,000 loan at 6.5% = $3143/month
A $500,000 loan at 8.5% = $3817/month
A $500,000 loan at 10.% = $4315/month.It almost makes one wonder where the ceiling is? Could we be looking at an early 1980s credit scenario?
A $3,143/month loan payment services a $308,000 mortgage at 12%. Not counting taxes and insurance. Offset that some by the tax writeoff for the higher interest rate, but we’d still looking at a 35% haircut just because of interest rates, not counting whatever other damage to the economy would result from that type of credit contraction.
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August 3, 2007 at 11:29 AM #70005
Anonymous
GuestThe non conforming market is taking a beating. I quoted a rate of 6.625% 2 weeks ago and today that same loan is at 8.5%.
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August 3, 2007 at 10:16 AM #69985
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantI received a solicitation in the mail yesterday from IndyMac bank advertising 5.55% CD rates. Seems they are eager (as indicated by high rates) to borrow some funds from consumers (still cheaper than floating bonds out there). Hmmm… Wonder why ?
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August 3, 2007 at 10:14 AM #69983
bsrsharma
ParticipantI peeked at Anchorage listings, the prices aren’t too high. Feels like San Diego pre-bubble or early-bubble days. Not a bad place for equity harvesters if you like long days (and nights) and ice. Juneau is a bit pricier, but still feels like a bargain for anyone from SD/OC areas.
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August 3, 2007 at 9:25 AM #69951
GoUSC
ParticipantTo put it simply I will take high interest rates and low home prices versus the opposite. At least I get a bigger write-off and can always refinance when rates get lower. Buying an expensive house with a low interest rate leaves you no where to go.
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August 3, 2007 at 12:27 PM #69956
taz
ParticipantActually, Guam would be more expensive, just like Hawaii and other islands – because of the cost to ship in all the raw materials needed for construction, combined with a finite supply of land…you get the picture. Also, in Hawaii much of the land is held in fee simple by a few families/plantations. Land is essentially “rented” via long-term leases.
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August 3, 2007 at 1:18 PM #69988
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantI don’t know, this house in Guam looks pretty cheap to me, relative to CA …
http://guamrealestate.net/main/?cat=listings&pg=display&propid=1235
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August 3, 2007 at 1:26 PM #70000
NotCranky
ParticipantThe Guam house is on Nino Perdido street. That is spanish for “lost child”. What kind of implication could that have?
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August 3, 2007 at 1:26 PM #70076
NotCranky
ParticipantThe Guam house is on Nino Perdido street. That is spanish for “lost child”. What kind of implication could that have?
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August 3, 2007 at 1:18 PM #70063
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantI don’t know, this house in Guam looks pretty cheap to me, relative to CA …
http://guamrealestate.net/main/?cat=listings&pg=display&propid=1235
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August 3, 2007 at 12:27 PM #70031
taz
ParticipantActually, Guam would be more expensive, just like Hawaii and other islands – because of the cost to ship in all the raw materials needed for construction, combined with a finite supply of land…you get the picture. Also, in Hawaii much of the land is held in fee simple by a few families/plantations. Land is essentially “rented” via long-term leases.
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August 3, 2007 at 8:59 AM #69939
(former)FormerSanDiegan
ParticipantThe higher conforming loan limit also applies to Guam and the US Virgin Islands.
Guam ?
Can;t be expensive there.Methinks it has something to do with political pull. Perhaps Sen Stevens and Sen Inoue had something to do with it. In Alaska’s case it falls in the same category as the bridge to nowhere.
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August 2, 2007 at 11:42 PM #69879
bsrsharma
ParticipantI can see Hawaii being a “trophy” market with small supply. But Alaska? It has infinite amount of land compared to people making it almost worthless and one has to catch a lot of fish (if not pumping oil or gas) to afford those numbers.
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August 2, 2007 at 11:32 PM #69877
rb_engineer
ParticipantI would say Hawaii is purely supply and demand. Personally, I don’t really subscribe to the “median income x == median price x”. Just like anything, price goes up if demand goes up. I would say for Alaska, its set high to attract people. Just a guess.
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August 2, 2007 at 11:04 PM #69873
bsrsharma
Participant“Hawaii and Alaska’s conforming loan is 625K. I guess because houses are more expensive there.”
Interesting; for that number, households should be making 150K-200K p.a. What is the source of that kind of income? I haven’t been to either state.
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August 2, 2007 at 10:49 PM #69869
rb_engineer
ParticipantWell. 7% is above my threshold of comfort. Yes, I’m spoiled…
Hawaii and Alaska’s conforming loan is 625K. I guess because houses are more expensive there.
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August 2, 2007 at 10:21 PM #69861
bsrsharma
Participant“its still very high.”
I happily paid 7.625% on a conforming loan for 7 years. For how many years in last 40 years was this cheaper than 7%? I think people have become addicted to low rates. Time to kick the habit. That will promote savings over consumption.
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August 2, 2007 at 10:11 PM #69859
rb_engineer
ParticipantProbably a typo. Wells Fargo website says 7%. None the less, its still very high.
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August 2, 2007 at 9:50 PM #69855
ak1
ParticipantI just noticed that Wells Fargo just increased their rate for 30 year fixed jumbo loans to 8% from 6 7/8% last week! Here’s the link http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118609866621886776.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo
Quote from the article
“Lenders are tightening standards and “raising rates like crazy,” said Melissa Cohn, chief executive of Manhattan Mortgage, a New York mortgage broker. She said Wells Fargo & Co. is charging 8% for a prime jumbo 30-year fixed-rate loan that carried a 6 7/8% rate late last week.”
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August 2, 2007 at 9:43 PM #69851
LA_Renter
ParticipantFor what it’s worth this is K Denninger’s take at market-ticker;
“The market has not yet gotten its arms around the Moody’s announcement on the securitization credit rating process as I outlined in the ticker the other night. It will. When? I can’t tell you that, but what I can tell you with certainty is that the squeeze in the mortgage marketplace will get much worse, will implode more lenders and will materially impact all of them.
The warning on this was when S&P said they were re-jiggering their models for mortgage ABS issues. But – they didn’t put any hair on that dog. Moody’s did, however, and then turned it rabid and let it loose.
Ignore this at your peril if you are long the market.
As I have said repeatedly – 30% of the demand that exists now in the housing market is going to be flushed as the ALT-A and Subprime pipeline is either shut down entirely or repriced to near credit-card rates. This IS happening – right now – and it WILL drag the economy into a recession. This will not end until there is a serious price contraction in housing prices so that affordability returns to historical norms.
Now go back and read that again guys. And then again. And then again.”
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
Yikes!
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August 2, 2007 at 8:21 PM #69843
bsrsharma
ParticipantThe most humane way to shrink the monster bubble to a raisin is to take away the bottle of large cheap mortgages. When anyone who wants to buy a half mil $ property HAS to bring half mil $ cash, rationality will be quickly restored.
rb_engineer: What is the special treatment for Alaska/Hawaii and why?
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August 2, 2007 at 6:45 PM #69827
rb_engineer
ParticipantDo you think its reasonable to raise the threshold for conforming loans in California? Maybe to somewhere between Alaska/Hawaii and the rest of the country. Why are Alaska and Hawaii getting this treatment anyway?
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August 2, 2007 at 6:36 PM #69821
DaCounselor
ParticipantDoes FM’s guidelines for purchase take into account what is happening behind the loan they are purchasing (aka 2nd position)? I’m guessing that FM can buy a $417K first mtg. that is part of an 80/20 deal (to the extent that 80/20’s are going to be made) and that will be conforming even with a $104K second mtg. sitting behind it, for a total loan of $521K.
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August 2, 2007 at 5:20 PM #69795
contraman
ParticipantOh…..that is what my extremely wealthy mentor meant when he said, there comes a time when “CASH IS KING” and I am not talking about some guru who talks about his Poor and Rich Dad and co-markets books with some arrogant prick who lost his Father’s fortunes…..and get off on telling people they are fired…..what a joke that guy is….pure marketer….
Sincerely, Contraman
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August 2, 2007 at 5:14 PM #69787
bsrsharma
ParticipantThis is a magical moment. See how fast home prices will “limbo dance” below that limit. Good news for many aspiring Piggingtonians! When one can’t get a mortgage above 417K, that market essentially dies for all except cash buyers.
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August 4, 2007 at 5:21 PM #70307
gael
ParticipantDoes anyone know of a lender who goes up to $700,000 no down, 100% finance, stated income and verified assets, 700 credit score?
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August 5, 2007 at 1:40 PM #70477
JWM in SD
Participant“Does anyone know of a lender who goes up to $700,000 no down, 100% finance, stated income and verified assets, 700 credit score?”
Oh man….buy now or be priced out forever Gael.
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August 5, 2007 at 1:40 PM #70553
JWM in SD
Participant“Does anyone know of a lender who goes up to $700,000 no down, 100% finance, stated income and verified assets, 700 credit score?”
Oh man….buy now or be priced out forever Gael.
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August 4, 2007 at 5:21 PM #70384
gael
ParticipantDoes anyone know of a lender who goes up to $700,000 no down, 100% finance, stated income and verified assets, 700 credit score?
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August 6, 2007 at 5:39 AM #70793
Ex-SD
ParticipantWhen you can buy a nice, 2000 square foot home in the majority of the USA for $200k or less……….the entire state of CA is beginning to hear the rooster crowing as he announces the dawn of a brand new day in the housing market. If you can’t get financing, comps or qualified buyers……….values drop. Just plain old, basic economics.
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August 6, 2007 at 5:39 AM #70909
Ex-SD
ParticipantWhen you can buy a nice, 2000 square foot home in the majority of the USA for $200k or less……….the entire state of CA is beginning to hear the rooster crowing as he announces the dawn of a brand new day in the housing market. If you can’t get financing, comps or qualified buyers……….values drop. Just plain old, basic economics.
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August 6, 2007 at 5:39 AM #70917
Ex-SD
ParticipantWhen you can buy a nice, 2000 square foot home in the majority of the USA for $200k or less……….the entire state of CA is beginning to hear the rooster crowing as he announces the dawn of a brand new day in the housing market. If you can’t get financing, comps or qualified buyers……….values drop. Just plain old, basic economics.
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