How many upside-down Americans will walk away?

[mydogsarelazy]

Here is something from the New York Times:

“The financial blog Calculated Risk, using data from First American CoreLogic, estimates that if home prices fall 20 percent there will be 13.7 million homeowners with negative equity. If prices fall 30 percent, that number would rise to more than 20 million.”

How many of those upside-down Americans are going to walk away from their homes, and how long will it take them to do it? It doesn’t seem unlikely to me that over the next three to five years ten million Americans will leave behind their homes and mortgage responsibilities.

JS

[barnaby33]

This isn’t really a question about the number, its a question about the consequences.
Josh

[barnaby33]

This isn’t really a question about the number, its a question about the consequences.
Josh

[barnaby33]

This isn’t really a question about the number, its a question about the consequences.
Josh

[barnaby33]

This isn’t really a question about the number, its a question about the consequences.
Josh

[barnaby33]

This isn’t really a question about the number, its a question about the consequences.
Josh

[Arraya]

It is unfortunate that the interests of the indvidual and the financial institution are so opposed.

Does anybody else think that the BK law changed back in 05 was good timing for the banks or what?

[patientlywaiting]

“Does anybody else think that the BK law changed back in 05 was good timing for the banks or what?”
———–

Bad timing for the banks because the new law encourages people decide to walk from their mortgages rather than their credit card debts (which can no longer be discharged).

Underwriting is now upside-down where mortgages are riskier than credit card loans. Big problem for the banks is that mortgages pay low interest rates but have high risks. It’ll take the banks a few years to rethink their business models.

[patientlywaiting]

We are going to have more than 2 million foreclosures as a result of the mortgage meltdown.

Add to that another 3 million homeowners who will walk away. That’s my gut feeling.

[patientlywaiting]

We are going to have more than 2 million foreclosures as a result of the mortgage meltdown.

Add to that another 3 million homeowners who will walk away. That’s my gut feeling.

[patientlywaiting]

We are going to have more than 2 million foreclosures as a result of the mortgage meltdown.

Add to that another 3 million homeowners who will walk away. That’s my gut feeling.

[patientlywaiting]

We are going to have more than 2 million foreclosures as a result of the mortgage meltdown.

Add to that another 3 million homeowners who will walk away. That’s my gut feeling.

[patientlywaiting]

We are going to have more than 2 million foreclosures as a result of the mortgage meltdown.

Add to that another 3 million homeowners who will walk away. That’s my gut feeling.

[Arraya]

“Bad timing for the banks because the new law encourages people decide to walk from their mortgages rather than their credit card debts (which can no longer be discharged).”

Not sure what you mean by this. I was speaking of stricter eligibility for chapter 7 Filing. I think the fact that their home prices are so inflated and the disparity between thier motgage payment and what they can rent the same place for that encourages them to walk away.

“Underwriting is now upside-down where mortgages are riskier than credit card loans. Big problem for the banks is that mortgages pay low interest rates but have high risks. It’ll take the banks a few years to rethink their business models.”

agreed

[Eugene]

Numbers from calculatedrisk are misleading (I’d even say inaccurate). 20% nationwide decline is the average of 50% decline in California and maybe 10% in Minnesota.

Personally I expect 50% default rate among all homes bought or refinanced in CA/AZ/NV/FL between mid-2004 and 2007. Something like 700k foreclosures in CA and 50k foreclosures in San Diego county.

[hipmatt]

There are currently very minimal consequences for walking away from the home (home owner), and many of them can now be resolved easily (i hear) through a lawyer or other credit repair agency.

There is no way I would continue making payments on a home with neg equity. Its far better to take the ding on credit, rent a few years, and get back in at half price.

[patientrenter]

hipmatt: “There are currently very minimal consequences for walking away from the home (home owner), and many of them can now be resolved easily (i hear) through a lawyer or other credit repair agency.”

I agree. If we’re both right, and the lenders learn the lesson from that which is now staring them in the face, won’t mortgage rates go through the roof unless the government guarantees repayment? I see very broad govt guarantees of repayment as the next really big step in this saga. That might stop price declines, as the market gets fed nearly unlimited amounts of risky new loans.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

hipmatt: “There are currently very minimal consequences for walking away from the home (home owner), and many of them can now be resolved easily (i hear) through a lawyer or other credit repair agency.”

I agree. If we’re both right, and the lenders learn the lesson from that which is now staring them in the face, won’t mortgage rates go through the roof unless the government guarantees repayment? I see very broad govt guarantees of repayment as the next really big step in this saga. That might stop price declines, as the market gets fed nearly unlimited amounts of risky new loans.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

hipmatt: “There are currently very minimal consequences for walking away from the home (home owner), and many of them can now be resolved easily (i hear) through a lawyer or other credit repair agency.”

I agree. If we’re both right, and the lenders learn the lesson from that which is now staring them in the face, won’t mortgage rates go through the roof unless the government guarantees repayment? I see very broad govt guarantees of repayment as the next really big step in this saga. That might stop price declines, as the market gets fed nearly unlimited amounts of risky new loans.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

hipmatt: “There are currently very minimal consequences for walking away from the home (home owner), and many of them can now be resolved easily (i hear) through a lawyer or other credit repair agency.”

I agree. If we’re both right, and the lenders learn the lesson from that which is now staring them in the face, won’t mortgage rates go through the roof unless the government guarantees repayment? I see very broad govt guarantees of repayment as the next really big step in this saga. That might stop price declines, as the market gets fed nearly unlimited amounts of risky new loans.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

hipmatt: “There are currently very minimal consequences for walking away from the home (home owner), and many of them can now be resolved easily (i hear) through a lawyer or other credit repair agency.”

I agree. If we’re both right, and the lenders learn the lesson from that which is now staring them in the face, won’t mortgage rates go through the roof unless the government guarantees repayment? I see very broad govt guarantees of repayment as the next really big step in this saga. That might stop price declines, as the market gets fed nearly unlimited amounts of risky new loans.

Patient renter in OC

[hipmatt]

There are currently very minimal consequences for walking away from the home (home owner), and many of them can now be resolved easily (i hear) through a lawyer or other credit repair agency.

There is no way I would continue making payments on a home with neg equity. Its far better to take the ding on credit, rent a few years, and get back in at half price.

[hipmatt]

There are currently very minimal consequences for walking away from the home (home owner), and many of them can now be resolved easily (i hear) through a lawyer or other credit repair agency.

There is no way I would continue making payments on a home with neg equity. Its far better to take the ding on credit, rent a few years, and get back in at half price.

[hipmatt]

There are currently very minimal consequences for walking away from the home (home owner), and many of them can now be resolved easily (i hear) through a lawyer or other credit repair agency.

There is no way I would continue making payments on a home with neg equity. Its far better to take the ding on credit, rent a few years, and get back in at half price.

[hipmatt]

There are currently very minimal consequences for walking away from the home (home owner), and many of them can now be resolved easily (i hear) through a lawyer or other credit repair agency.

There is no way I would continue making payments on a home with neg equity. Its far better to take the ding on credit, rent a few years, and get back in at half price.

[Eugene]

Numbers from calculatedrisk are misleading (I’d even say inaccurate). 20% nationwide decline is the average of 50% decline in California and maybe 10% in Minnesota.

Personally I expect 50% default rate among all homes bought or refinanced in CA/AZ/NV/FL between mid-2004 and 2007. Something like 700k foreclosures in CA and 50k foreclosures in San Diego county.

[Eugene]

Numbers from calculatedrisk are misleading (I’d even say inaccurate). 20% nationwide decline is the average of 50% decline in California and maybe 10% in Minnesota.

Personally I expect 50% default rate among all homes bought or refinanced in CA/AZ/NV/FL between mid-2004 and 2007. Something like 700k foreclosures in CA and 50k foreclosures in San Diego county.

[Eugene]

Numbers from calculatedrisk are misleading (I’d even say inaccurate). 20% nationwide decline is the average of 50% decline in California and maybe 10% in Minnesota.

Personally I expect 50% default rate among all homes bought or refinanced in CA/AZ/NV/FL between mid-2004 and 2007. Something like 700k foreclosures in CA and 50k foreclosures in San Diego county.

[Eugene]

Numbers from calculatedrisk are misleading (I’d even say inaccurate). 20% nationwide decline is the average of 50% decline in California and maybe 10% in Minnesota.

Personally I expect 50% default rate among all homes bought or refinanced in CA/AZ/NV/FL between mid-2004 and 2007. Something like 700k foreclosures in CA and 50k foreclosures in San Diego county.

[Arraya]

“Bad timing for the banks because the new law encourages people decide to walk from their mortgages rather than their credit card debts (which can no longer be discharged).”

Not sure what you mean by this. I was speaking of stricter eligibility for chapter 7 Filing. I think the fact that their home prices are so inflated and the disparity between thier motgage payment and what they can rent the same place for that encourages them to walk away.

“Underwriting is now upside-down where mortgages are riskier than credit card loans. Big problem for the banks is that mortgages pay low interest rates but have high risks. It’ll take the banks a few years to rethink their business models.”

agreed

[Arraya]

“Bad timing for the banks because the new law encourages people decide to walk from their mortgages rather than their credit card debts (which can no longer be discharged).”

Not sure what you mean by this. I was speaking of stricter eligibility for chapter 7 Filing. I think the fact that their home prices are so inflated and the disparity between thier motgage payment and what they can rent the same place for that encourages them to walk away.

“Underwriting is now upside-down where mortgages are riskier than credit card loans. Big problem for the banks is that mortgages pay low interest rates but have high risks. It’ll take the banks a few years to rethink their business models.”

agreed

[Arraya]

“Bad timing for the banks because the new law encourages people decide to walk from their mortgages rather than their credit card debts (which can no longer be discharged).”

Not sure what you mean by this. I was speaking of stricter eligibility for chapter 7 Filing. I think the fact that their home prices are so inflated and the disparity between thier motgage payment and what they can rent the same place for that encourages them to walk away.

“Underwriting is now upside-down where mortgages are riskier than credit card loans. Big problem for the banks is that mortgages pay low interest rates but have high risks. It’ll take the banks a few years to rethink their business models.”

agreed

[Arraya]

“Bad timing for the banks because the new law encourages people decide to walk from their mortgages rather than their credit card debts (which can no longer be discharged).”

Not sure what you mean by this. I was speaking of stricter eligibility for chapter 7 Filing. I think the fact that their home prices are so inflated and the disparity between thier motgage payment and what they can rent the same place for that encourages them to walk away.

“Underwriting is now upside-down where mortgages are riskier than credit card loans. Big problem for the banks is that mortgages pay low interest rates but have high risks. It’ll take the banks a few years to rethink their business models.”

agreed

[patientlywaiting]

“Does anybody else think that the BK law changed back in 05 was good timing for the banks or what?”
———–

Bad timing for the banks because the new law encourages people decide to walk from their mortgages rather than their credit card debts (which can no longer be discharged).

Underwriting is now upside-down where mortgages are riskier than credit card loans. Big problem for the banks is that mortgages pay low interest rates but have high risks. It’ll take the banks a few years to rethink their business models.

[patientlywaiting]

“Does anybody else think that the BK law changed back in 05 was good timing for the banks or what?”
———–

Bad timing for the banks because the new law encourages people decide to walk from their mortgages rather than their credit card debts (which can no longer be discharged).

Underwriting is now upside-down where mortgages are riskier than credit card loans. Big problem for the banks is that mortgages pay low interest rates but have high risks. It’ll take the banks a few years to rethink their business models.

[patientlywaiting]

“Does anybody else think that the BK law changed back in 05 was good timing for the banks or what?”
———–

Bad timing for the banks because the new law encourages people decide to walk from their mortgages rather than their credit card debts (which can no longer be discharged).

Underwriting is now upside-down where mortgages are riskier than credit card loans. Big problem for the banks is that mortgages pay low interest rates but have high risks. It’ll take the banks a few years to rethink their business models.

[patientlywaiting]

“Does anybody else think that the BK law changed back in 05 was good timing for the banks or what?”
———–

Bad timing for the banks because the new law encourages people decide to walk from their mortgages rather than their credit card debts (which can no longer be discharged).

Underwriting is now upside-down where mortgages are riskier than credit card loans. Big problem for the banks is that mortgages pay low interest rates but have high risks. It’ll take the banks a few years to rethink their business models.

[Arraya]

It is unfortunate that the interests of the indvidual and the financial institution are so opposed.

Does anybody else think that the BK law changed back in 05 was good timing for the banks or what?

[Arraya]

It is unfortunate that the interests of the indvidual and the financial institution are so opposed.

Does anybody else think that the BK law changed back in 05 was good timing for the banks or what?

[Arraya]

It is unfortunate that the interests of the indvidual and the financial institution are so opposed.

Does anybody else think that the BK law changed back in 05 was good timing for the banks or what?

[Arraya]

It is unfortunate that the interests of the indvidual and the financial institution are so opposed.

Does anybody else think that the BK law changed back in 05 was good timing for the banks or what?

[Author]

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