Del Cerro

[daney143]

I heard the Del Cerro (just north of the 8 from SDSU) has one of the best elementary schools in the county. It’s close to all and there is little to no traffic for a commute into down town. Most of the houses have views and with a little work, you have a like new home under or right around $500k. Anyone have any thoughts on this area. I’ve been looking and there really isn’t any inventory in the area. If I could find a deal, what would be a good price? Or is this area bad? I heard newly wed or nearly dead?

[blahblahblah]

Del Cerro is a great neighborhood and it’s close to Mission Trails which is a nice bonus. However, those homes are just as bubblicious as in other parts of SD. They were $300K homes back in 2002.

[Steve Beebo]

Some established areas like Del Cerro and San Carlos really haven’t seen much in the way of price declines at all, at least up to this point. (I’m talking about SFRs, not condos – some condos have declined a lot in this area).

You’re right, there isn’t that much inventory, and the reason they have declined less than some other areas is that there isn’t any new housing that has been dumped onto the market in the last several years – this area is all built out. That’s not to say that prices there won’t decline in 2007 – it will probably happen, I’m just not sure how much.

[BobbyD]

We have friends who both work downtown and have been looking at Del Cerro and the homes that they have looked at have all been in the low millions ($1.1 – $1.3).

I think that Concho is right, it is just as overpriced and inflated there as anywhere else. There are no “bargains” in SD unless they are willing to live in the boondocks and have a long commute.

[daney143]

Yeah, there are homes on the high hill for 1.1 million, but there are also home that are just below the hill, but still have views for mid $500k (along Del Cerro Blvd). I think last year one actually sold for 650k. When I think about its realitive cost to areas like normal heights and Rolando, it seem like a steal given you don’t have to deal with the inner city BS. The community also has carm, with some turn over, could end up like a Kensington? Also, how can an area get hit if there is no property for sale?

[daney143]

What would you offer?

There is a place for sale on Raymar Ave. It’s MLS is 062090871. THey are asking $599k. In the real world, what would you offer? The area around Hill Grove Dr is super nice.

[blahblahblah]

Start by finding how much a similar house in the neighborhood rents for. Then take your 20% down, 80% fixed rate 30 year mortgage, add property taxes and maintenance and subtract the tax deduction. When this number is pretty close to the rent number, that’s a good price. I could see paying maybe a hundred more per month to own than rent if I really liked the place. Oh also, don’t forget that your 20% down payment can earn over 5% annually in CDs these days (you’ll lose 100% of that when you buy), and that if you work for yourself you can write off a portion of your rent for your office. My guess is that when you really do the math, you’ll find that most prices in San Diego are still too high.

My predictions?

* Leaping from condo balconies will gain popularity as a suicide method in 2007

* A rash of mysterious home and condo fires will sweep southern California in 2008

* In 2009, workers in housing-related industries will transition to careers with higher demand for workers, such as strawberry cultivation, garden maintenance, and home cleaning

* Downtown condo HOAs will modify their bylaws to allow balcony vegetable gardens and the keeping of chickens as “pets” in 2010

* 2011 might be a good time to think about buying a house in SD

[Anonymous]

Hilarious, Concho, but makes sense.

[daney143]

lol…. I’ve already got my vegetable garden and chicken feed ready to go…

[barnaby33]

I don’t know Steve, I have seen lots of listings on CL that are reduced in Del Cerro and San Carlos. Its sort of like a nicer version of Clairemont. Lots of old housing stock that people bought to flip. Seems like lots of flips gone flock.

Josh

[meadandale]

You might also want to check out Allied Gardens. Prices here are not generally as high as up the hill in Del Cerro (however homes are smaller and in most cases, older). There has actually been a small decline in prices over the last 12-18 months in this area (550k down to about 500k on the median home).

[daney143]

Del Cerro Blvd…. Next to Windmill Farms… Next time any of you have a chance, drive by around there. The area has a ton of potiential. In that area there is little to no inventory. I would wait until the prices came down to $450k or $475k, but then I feel that is too low. With two incomes, that’s about a $2,800. per month mortgage with no mello roos or HOA. It’s hard for me to think that area would go for less than $475k. Come on, housing isn’t suppose to feel like it’s free and everyone has a right. The USA is the only place in the world with as much land and as many single family homes as we have. At some point there just isn’t going to be enough single family homes in SD to support he demand. Downtown highrise living will be the only thing available and all the kids that were born in this city will be scrambling to buy anything they can get their hands on in 10-years when the population explodes and this whole down market syndrom is washed away. Not sure if any of you check out SANDAG projections for population grow, but it’s happening now. Yeah, read the paper and you’ll see that more left than came in to SD last year, but more were born here and live here than did last year. The population grown for all US cities over the next 20-years is going to come from within. America is going to start growing faster again and San Diego is a prime location being that it is a three country economy (USC, Mexico and China.)

[blahblahblah]

Good points daney143, I totally agree about Del Cerro. I just ran the numbers and with a 30 yr. fixed at 6%, your payment is just under $2800/mo ($450K price, $90K down); with the tax deduction that’s very doable for a household making $100K/yr and maybe even less if they’re thrifty. It is still a little more pricey than renting, especially considering your giving up the income you can generate from that $90K down payment. What’s the median household income here in SD? Also, how many first time buyers will have a $90K down payment?

I still think it is a good idea to wait until all of the weak hands are flushed from this market over the next few years. A lot of people really stretched to get themselves into these houses.

[daney143]

Yeah, i am not sure how many SDers have 90k to put down, unless they sold their town home a year ago and bought it in 2001. Most spend their money at Fashion Valley or at Car Country Carlsbad.

I just have this gut feeling that when the pendulum starts to swing back in the positive growth direction, it’s going to swing harder than it did these past few years. If you’re one of the little guys and you’re not in, forget it. You’ll be renting for the rest of your life. It’s almost like you have to buy when everyone is running and sell when everyone is trying to get back in. But who am I….

There are two places I would never buy in SD. East Chula Vista and Downtown San Diego. These two locations are going to get crushed over the next couple of years.

[CardiffBaseball]

I realize I am being pedantic here but one thing I have noticed in Cali is that nobody tends to include the property taxes as part of the house payment. Of course a smart person would say that it is not part of the house payment, however coming from Ohio and Texas where perhaps the “rates” are higher (though the valuations are much lower) I am conditioned to talk about the house payment, as all encompassing.

I have also noticed a lot more people pay their property taxes as an annual or bi-annual payment (whatever it is) instead of being part of the house payment.

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