churn in housing

[bearishgurl]

[quote=AN][quote=bearishgurl]
You wouldn’t have a 40-60 min commute if you bought a WWII box in Northern SM County (San Bruno Millbrae, Belmont, Redwood City …. even East Palo Alto) for $700-$900K and moved in, enabling you to eventually position yourself for that $300K salary level you were posting about.[/quote]You serious don’t know what you’re talking about. In Millbrae, there’s only 1 house for sale <$1M. https://www.redfin.com/CA/Millbrae/508-Lomita-Ct-94030/home/1951087. It's listed at $999k. Same with Belmont, there's only 1 for sale <$1M: https://www.redfin.com/CA/Belmont/618-Hiller-St-94002/home/1708651, listing at $949k for a 3/1 1000 sq-ft. Redwood City school sucks and I wouldn't want to subject my kids to that crap. Same with East PA.[/quote]

AN, I didn't check to see if the links you posted were currently the only ones under $1M in northern SM County. I did look at both of them and noticed that they were priced at least $150K higher than similarly-sized homes in those areas the last time I checked, which was Nov-Dec 2014. I noted the $999K Millbrae listing is still active tonight and still displays only one photo and the $949K Belmont listing is also still active and has been on the market for 8 days.

I'll check them again Sunday night to see if the sellers have accepted an offer.

Assuming arguendo that you're right and your links are the only current SFR listings priced under $1M in the small SM Co cities I mentioned, this leads me to believe that somewhat “affordable” SFR listings (if you can call listings priced $950K-$1M “affordable”) are currently in such short supply in that locale that most of the agents/brokers there, upon taking a listing, just show it to one of their OWN buyers or a buyer-client represented by an “in-house” agent (waiting in the wings on their list for an SFR to become available) and instantly sell it. Then, the listing brokerage quietly double-ends the listing and collects 100% of the commission (even if its only 4% – 5%).

In other words, most “affordable” SFR listings taken within SM County never make it to the RE aggregators such as Redfin because they are already sold and so never even make it into the MLS. The listing agent doesn’t get that far because there isn’t enough time. Upon getting the seller(s) sig(s) on the listing, they promptly begin calling from their long list of waiting, vetted buyers, show it before there is even a sign in the yard and begin writing offer(s). I found this to be the case with my “saved” Contra Costa County listings which I was monitoring about two years ago, as well. I had conducted searches of public record sold comps and matched them to my “saved” listings which went pending within days and I ending up finding several more properties in the immediate area that recently “sold” in apparent “arm’s-length” transactions which never made it into the MLS. And all these listings were on the EAST side of the tunnel, so the practice in the SF bay area of obtaining (hidden-to-the-public) or “pocket listings” is not confined to SV or even bayfront cities.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caldecott_Tunnel

[quote=AN]Where do you get that an average enginerd will be able to make $300k (assuming you don’t hit the IPO lottery)? I would call BS. I know a few enginerds at my age and they’re making less than I am, yet they’re in the bay area. When I interview with companies up there, when I passed the technical part and we start talking about salary, that’s where it breaks down. Salary are between 15-25% higher than SD, that’s what recruiters tell me. They would offer more stocks but with my luck, I would end up picking a company that wouldn’t hit the IPO lottery. . .[/quote]

AN I never stated the “average” enginerd would be offered $300K upon hire. I simply stated that they could put themselves in line in the SV for eventually making that much. I don’t think this is doable in SD County.

My kid(s) who already graduated from college are in HR/Hospitality Mgmt and they absolutely do make 2-3x the pay in SF than they could ever get in SD County.

We SD County residents have this thing called an int’l border which is now a sieve of Sentri Pass holders going back and forth twice every weekday in their special lanes (yes, even thousands of Americans) to work in San Diego in jobs such as HR and Hospitality Mgmt and everything else in between (low-skilled, semi-skilled … all the way up to “professionals”). The same 4/2 SFR that rents for $2200 to $2400 mo in Chula Vista rents for about $550 to $750 mo in Tijuana. Thus, San Diego County has a never-ending supply of many thousands of workers (mostly bilingual) who live in MX with whom local employers can easily get away with paying less. Why? Because this “captive audience” will accept less and not be so insistent on timely raises and promotions (as a worker would who has a much higher COL in the US). This is ESPecially true in the hospitality industry. But the phenomenon is not contained to that industry alone. It’s present to varying degrees in ALL industries (even some branches of govm’t, where the salaries are published). This practice results in SD County having a pay scale of up to 45% lower than the SF bay area and 25-30% lower than LA County. This is the primary reason I told my kids NOT to seek work here. They’ll likely be working their a$$es off only to reach the $50K annual salary mark after ten years with the same SD employer (assuming they last that long). They make WELL over six figures now in SF and live in rent-controlled unit(s). One is arriving back home tonight from their 2nd trip to Europe in one year (Berlin, Copenhagen and Paris this time).

wtf?? I’ve never been to Europe! Maybe I’ll get my (expired) document(s) renewed this year and try to scare up a better-off Gen Y kid to show me the ropes over there 🙂

AN, if you’re happy with your salary and promotional opportunities in SD and thus were able to buy a home on your turf (and remodel it as well?), I think that’s great! But a high percentage of native San Diegan college grads in the past 10+ years have not been able to find work in SD County which pays enough to even move out of their parent(s) back bdrm at the age of 30+. Yes, even if they graduated with an occupational degree and don’t have any student loans, MANY in this group still cannot make enough here to support themselves. They can’t get FT jobs in their fields here and many can’t get enough hours on their PT job here to even make a regular car payment. I didn’t mean to use you as an example but you are one of the younger Piggs here (who can still ostensibly get hired) … so consider yourself fortunate!

[an]

BG, show me data where you see 45% lower pay scale compare to SF. Instead of making up numbers, show me based on real data. You can start here: http://salary.com/.

According to salary.com, hotel manager in SD make a median of $106k/year: http://swz.salary.com/SalaryWizard/Hotel-Manager-Salary-Details-San-Diego-CA.aspx. Hotel Manger in SF makes a median of $122k: http://swz.salary.com/SalaryWizard/Hotel-Manager-Salary-Details-San-Francisco-CA.aspx.

Human Resources Generalist IV in San Diego make a median of $93k/year: http://swz.salary.com/SalaryWizard/Human-Resources-Generalist-IV-Salary-Details-San-Diego-CA.aspx, while in SF, the median is $107k/year: http://swz.salary.com/SalaryWizard/Human-Resources-Generalist-IV-Salary-Details-San-Francisco-CA.aspx. So, where’s your 2-3x comparison? Both profession show a 15% pay increase, a far cry from the 65% you’re claiming. So, I’ve showed my data, where’s yours? Feel free to show me a profession in SF that have a median salary 65% above SD’s salary.

As for your claim about us young people not making enough to leave home. It’s all hearsay and BS. I’m in that category you’re referring to and have many friends who are in that category. We would like to say that your statement is BS and unfounded. I’m not even the most well off person in my circle. Some of my friends are now optometrist and owning their own practice, doctors working at hospital, sr. engineering managers, CTO of startups, Engineering directors, etc. I can go on, but you get my point.

[fun4vnay2]

I can tell at least for engineering jobs, BA pays 20-30% more than SD

[Coronita]

[quote=AN]BG, show me data where you see 45% lower pay scale compare to SF. Instead of making up numbers, show me based on real data. You can start here: http://salary.com/.

According to salary.com, hotel manager in SD make a median of $106k/year: http://swz.salary.com/SalaryWizard/Hotel-Manager-Salary-Details-San-Diego-CA.aspx. Hotel Manger in SF makes a median of $122k: http://swz.salary.com/SalaryWizard/Hotel-Manager-Salary-Details-San-Francisco-CA.aspx.

Human Resources Generalist IV in San Diego make a median of $93k/year: http://swz.salary.com/SalaryWizard/Human-Resources-Generalist-IV-Salary-Details-San-Diego-CA.aspx, while in SF, the median is $107k/year: http://swz.salary.com/SalaryWizard/Human-Resources-Generalist-IV-Salary-Details-San-Francisco-CA.aspx. So, where’s your 2-3x comparison? Both profession show a 15% pay increase, a far cry from the 65% you’re claiming. So, I’ve showed my data, where’s yours? Feel free to show me a profession in SF that have a median salary 65% above SD’s salary.

As for your claim about us young people not making enough to leave home. It’s all hearsay and BS. I’m in that category you’re referring to and have many friends who are in that category. We would like to say that your statement is BS and unfounded. I’m not even the most well off person in my circle. Some of my friends are now optometrist and owning their own practice, doctors working at hospital, sr. engineering managers, CTO of startups, Engineering directors, etc. I can go on, but you get my point.[/quote]

It sounds like it’s time for another friendly wager…. BG, what do you think?

[an]

I did some more digging into the bay area. I think the bay area have detached itself in the last 20 years. There’s some detachment of Cupertino as well. But this data shows that bay area wasn’t always crazy priced. Here’s some examples:

Millbrae: https://www.redfin.com/CA/Millbrae/1253-Lake-St-94030/home/1246917
1996: $638,000
2015: $2.9M

Cupertino: http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/20615-Rodrigues-Ave-Cupertino-CA-95014/19634856_zpid/
1996: $371k
2015: $2.8M

Poway: http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-150000379-13957_Pequot_Poway_CA_92064
1996: $525k
2015: $1.1M

Carmel Valley: http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-150023820-4915_Riding_Ridge_Rd_San_Diego_CA_92130
1996: $350k
2015: $1.1M

Sorrento Valley: http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-150023146-5623_Glenstone_Way_San_Diego_CA_92121
1996: $313k
2015: ~850k

Some very interesting data IMHO from the last 20 years. I wonder where we go from here.

Will Cupertino and CV continue their trajectory? If so, 20 years from now the Cupertino house would be ~$21M and the Carmel Valley house would be ~$3.4M. My opinion of the bay would be very different in 1996 than it is today.

[Author]

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