Curiosity killed the cat and kept the home buyer… well… at home… in his rental.
So I decided to pull some data and try to make some observations into the market.
First the discussion of the data set. The data was pulled from Redfin and at the mercy of those entering the data. The sample set is for all zips in Carlsbad and San Marcos which is my area of interest. Sales records were from the last six months and incorporated all sales from 0 dollars to 1 million. I broke this data into three distinct group aligning to the Case-Schiller index. Hence, 0K to 406K, 406K to 600K, and lastly 600K to 1 Million. I did not go past a million because I thought those sales would create outliers though I did not do a Gaussian distribution to figure out if this was a good assumption. I merely picked what I thought was a reasonable number.
All records are for Single Family Residencies. No Condo, Land, or Townhouses are in this data.
Also 1443 records were thrown out due to the lack of a listed asking price. In other words the record was blank.
What I was looking into was simple: “Are sellers getting what they are asking for and what kind of educated bid should I put in?”
So immediately the smart people on this board will say “Well this data is only based on sales where original asking price was reasonable!” Let’s face it. Those of us that are watching the MLS are seeing a lot of stinkers out there meaning people that are asking for way more than their house is worth.
Plus there is the manipulation of the MLS itself where houses that weren’t moving were de-listed and re-listed. What I am getting to is that very rarely in the data set I was looking at was the Original List Price and the Last Listed Price different. So I merely looked at the last list price, the one that actually enticed buyers to act, versus the final sales price.
What I found is this:
Up to 406K:
On average houses sold at 98.7% of their last listed price. With final agreed price on average $5004 below final list. Total of 50 records in this analysis.
406K to 600K
On average houses sold at 99.1% of their last listed price. With final agreed price on average $4639 below final list. Total of 235 records in this analysis.
600K to 1 Million
On average houses sold at 98.4% of their last listed price. With final agreed price on average $12,820 below final list. Total of 397 records in this analysis.
The data set is easily reproducible or I can Dropbox this if anyone would like to see it.
It’s not a rigid analysis but thought Piggs might have some interest in it.
What kind of house and neighborhood are you looking for, CE? New? With or without HOA and Mello-Roos? Single story or two-story? Large or small lot?
Just in case we hear of anything before it comes on the market, or shortly thereafter, I can PM you. I’m sure you have a realtor you’re working with, but you never know if something might happen under the radar. That’s how we got our house.
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