Biz Buzz: Housing Hope Springs Eternal

[santeeman]

Thursday, November 16, 2006

If you are squarely in the "blame the media for the housing slowdown" camp, you are going to love this.

The vast majority of Americans are optimistic about what will happen with home prices, according to a nationwide survey. RT Strategies, an Alexandria, Va., polling firm, contacted 2,000 households and found 81 percent of homeowners think the value of their homes will rise during the next five years. Only 13 percent felt their home would fall in value, while 4 percent expected no change and 3 percent were unsure. "The poll clearly debunks the more sensational media reports speculating on the demise of the housing market," says David Pressly, president of the National Association of Home Builders, which commissioned the survey.

[Doofrat]

So David Pressly uses a poll of homeowners that “clearly debunks” the speculation of the demise of the housing market. Nice. He can’t supply some research showing increasing demand projected into the future based on some sound data, he uses a phone poll of Susie Smith, part time cake baker and PTA member’s opinion of where the market is heading to debunk these media reports.

I think David Pressly should fire his financial advisor and just conduct phone polls of which stock people think is going to go up.

I wonder what percentage of dot.com stockholders thought their stock would continue to increase in value before the crash? (probably 100% because if they thought it’d decrease in value, they’d have sold, wouldn’t they?)

[davelj]

Poll results support Outcome A; therefore Outcome A must be the eventual outcome.

Interesting. I don’t recall the Polling Corollary from my logic class back in college. Well, anyhow, I’m sure David Pressly is right. I mean, he has no vested interest in the outcome after all…

[santeeman]

I think it means all those people bought into the idea that realestate will never go down, and they all those price increases.

The lamb to the slaughter.

[gold_dredger_phd]

There’s a home buyer born every minute!

[PerryChase]

Here’s a link to a more balanced PBS Newshour report on housing with an interview with Roubini, powayseller’s favorite economist (and mine too).

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/july-dec06/housing_11-17.html

  11/17/2006

[powayseller]

Thanks for the link, PC.

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