Your prediction of 30-50% is pretty obvious, not sure why people could arugue that it is unrealistic. The reality is today’s prices are completely overvalued, a major drop will simply bring prices back to their real, sustainable value based on income and other fundamentals.
Homeowners who are used to having all this temporary equity need to pull their heads out of the sand and get used to the fact that their net worth is going down big time if they don’t sell their house.