Was it #3 in the early 90s? I checked johnelcos’ link and mortgage rates were pretty high during SD’s last housing runup in 88-90, running above 10% most of that time. Then during the housing bust, rates went down. They were between 8 and 9%, and varied a lot, but even went as low as 6.5% in 10/93. But housing in SD was not saved by this.
I think we need to look at the other factors in place at the time: debt levels, umemployment, wages.
Just looking at numbers from one period to the next, while ignoring the other factors, doesn’t help to predict the future.
What I learned from your research, Chris, is that one cannot just look at one or two factors on a chart to predict where we go from here.