sdnerd, yes, i think that homes in RSF will fall 60% because of principle of substitution.
If Temecula fall 60%, RSF might fall 40% then stagnate much longer while Temecula recovers. Over time, the real rate of change is the same.
Because RSF is the "ultimate" high-end a few property will still command astounding prices. But those property are outliers.
Think if it this way, Mercedes is X% more than Honda. If Honda drops prices, Mercedes will have to drop prices also. But the timing of the change will not be the same. Some rare models will still command outsized premiums.
The percentage premium of one neighborhood over another takes decades to change. Neighborhood A that is normally 4 times more than neighborhood D cannot suddenly go to 8 times more. That just does not make sense.
And as was said before, the bubble was less bubbly in the more expensive neighborhoods so the deflation will be less intense.
No offense, that was a shitty analogy with cars. Just because manufacturer X drops a car price by 20% because it has a shitty product(s) doesn't translate into some other brand like doing the same. The big 3, for the longest time, had to through so many rebates into the cars they sell versus other makers. Some cars, no matter how low the price is, I wouldn't consider buying because they are fundamentally such shitty products and/or undesirable products. One could say the same about homes, with the possible exception that there is an "investment" component to homes that would make almost any home worth buying once that magic number is met.
