PS – I thought that you believed the median price was a lagging indicator that was at the very least a year behind? Now you’re using the fact that the median has only recently gone negative to support an argument that “this is just the beginning”?
IMO, we should be able to pinpoint the beginning of this slowdown/downturn when monthly listings began to dramatically overshadow sales. My guess is that began in the spring/summer of ’05, and we’re now just getting to the free fall period. The ARM resets in ’07 and ’08 will lengthen the fall, and by ’09 San Diego will return to a market with a semblence of normalcy. If I had to take a guess, I’d put the over/under at a 35% fall from November 2005’s high before we reach the bottom in fall/winter of ’08.
