Never underestimate the central banks, the sovereign funds, pension funds in tiny Finnish towns, etc that will do something crazy like buy 10 year with the dollar in free fall. Logic dictates that the 10 year should stay put or move up slightly with inflation, but the markets are so cooked that 10 year has better chance of going to 3.25.
I tried the rising rate fund in 2003 and got burned. Bought RRPIX when 10 year was at 3.6 and sold few years later when 10 year was at 4.5 and I lost 10%!!!!! I was right on the direction, but the damn Phds couldn’t manage the futures properly to keep exact -100% correlation.
