Look at the MLS – selling price vs. listing price, and add in that seller is now paying closing costs. Add in allowances which don’t show up in the contract.
Look at new homes: use 2005 figures, add price reductions, upgrades.
Check downtown condos. Many many are 10% off. See the bubble blogger section for a guy who tracks these.
Look at Bressi Ranch. Remember I asked you about the pendings, and you didn’t know. I kept asking, and I got an answer:
“Bressi Ranch is showing 11 pending, but 8 have already closed escrow. Two examples of what they have to hide:
In September 2005 they closed a house for $936,000 that was listed for $1,125,000. In May 2006 they closed a house for $900,000 that was listed at $1,079,000. Both still show pending.
I can see why they want to disguise those sales as long as possible.
They aren’t putting everything on the MLS either, if they did it would be disastrous. From what I can tell they have a lot of houses not selling.”