If I understand you and powayseller correctly, 4plexowner is predicting a 40% to 60% drop in real prices, which translates to a smaller nominal (paper money) price reduction than powayseller. At 5% percent inflation (cuz I know you guys like that big inflation stuff) for 5 years you are looking at 36% drop in nominal prices.
Powayseller said 50% drop in nomial prices, which (using the same inflation figures) is a 60% drop in real value.
So I put powayseller farther out than even you.
Using the “revert to 1999 values” concept in another thread, I came up with 16-20% nominal, which is still a wild drop – twice that of the last crash.
Not sure how powayseller thinks this crash will be 5x worse than the last. The numbers just don’t support it, in my opinion.
I do think prices are off 3-5% though, and the fall is nearly a year old already, though it will be Summer 2007 before the general public realizes it. 6 more years and 15% to go.